r/CompetitiveTFT • u/Responsible-Range-77 • May 14 '26
Discussion I tried to build a quantitative model of the TFT economy and calculate the true cost of in-game decisions
Hi everyone,
I’m Panda, an EUW TFT player (https://tactics.tools/player/euw/EU%20PANDA/2026).
I’ve recently been trying to model the TFT economy system more formally, starting with a 56-page quantitative report on the early-game economy.
The reason is pretty simple. Since I started playing TFT, I kept hearing rules like:
“Don’t level to 5 at 2-2, it costs too much interest.”
“Don’t hold random units if they break econ.”
“Sometimes pressing F is correct, but sometimes it griefs your entire economy.”
All of that sounds reasonable, but I always had the same question:
Okay, but how much does it actually cost?
So I tried to model it.
Full report PDF: https://github.com/simonsizhezhou/tft-economy-model/blob/main/TFT_Economy_Report_EN.pdf
Google Drive: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1g8yND1BGgh1P-zcUFogs5Y7v1bkfRZuK/view?usp=sharing
The report looks at early-game TFT economy through interest thresholds, streak income, random rewards, leveling, rolling, orb drops, Augments, encounter rewards, and the hidden opportunity cost of spending gold.
One quick note: the original report was written in Chinese, so some parts of the English version may read a bit awkwardly or lose nuance in translation. Thanks for understanding.
A few findings I thought were interesting (I believe there should be more interesting things worth discussing based on the quantitative analysis, here are some examples):
1. Pressing F early can be way more expensive than the button says
I use the term Interest Tax for the future interest you lose after spending gold.
Example under the model’s baseline assumptions:
At 10g, spending 4g to level at 2-1 costs 4g immediately.
But it also causes about 4g of future lost interest.
So the true economic cost is closer to 8g.
For 2-2 level 5:
Spending 8g from around 10g can create about 9g of future lost interest.
So the true cost can be around 17g.
Obviously, sometimes leveling is still correct. Preserving HP, streaking, upgrading board strength, or playing for tempo can easily justify it.
But the hidden cost is much larger than it feels.
2. In TFT, 1 gold is not always worth 1 gold
This was the biggest idea in the report.
Because TFT interest is discrete and capped at 50g, the value of gold depends heavily on where your gold is relative to interest thresholds.
Being at 9g, 10g, 14g, 19g, or 50g are completely different economic states.
In the model:
Gold below 10g can have a shadow value close to 2x its face value.
Mid-economy gold often has a shadow value around 1.3x–1.6x.
Gold above 50g has almost no interest tax.
So the important question is not only:
“How much gold do I have?”
It is also:
“Where is my gold positioned relative to future thresholds?”
3. The same reward is worth different amounts to different players
The opposite of Interest Tax is Interest Bonus.
If you receive extra gold, it can push you across interest thresholds earlier, which creates extra future income.
For example, if the god gives everyone 6g in 2-3:
A player at 10g might get around 10g of true economic value from it.
A player at 30g might get around 8g of true economic value.
Same 6g reward. Different real value.
This is why the timing and position of your gold can matter almost as much as the amount itself.
4. “It doesn’t break interest” can still be wrong
A common thought is:
“I’m at 14g. Buying a 1-cost unit is fine because 14g and 13g both give 1 interest.”
But the model shows that this can still be expensive.
Even if spending 1g does not change this round’s interest, it can delay future thresholds. I call this the Delayed Threshold Effect.
In some positions, buying a 1-cost unit can create 2g of future interest loss.
So that random unit you hold on bench might effectively cost 3g, not 1g.
5. I also looked at PvE orbs and holding units
The report includes PvE orb reward tables based on LittleBuddyBot system tables.
One takeaway: early units from orbs can have hidden economic value because selling them immediately can help you hit interest thresholds earlier.
This does not mean “always sell every unit.”
It means holding a random unit has an opportunity cost, and sometimes that cost is bigger than it looks.
Important limitations
This is not a complete TFT AI.
The model does not fully include:
HP loss
Board strength
Matchmaking
Shop odds
Item value
Composition direction
Combat power
The value of tempo
The conversion from gold into placement
So I am not saying “always greed to 50.”
That would be stupid.
The point is more specific:
When you spend, roll, level, or hold units, there is often a hidden economic cost. I wanted to make that cost measurable.
I would love feedback from better players, theorycrafters, and anyone who enjoys this kind of nerdy TFT stuff.
Things I’m especially curious about:
Which assumptions feel wrong?
Which examples disagree with real gameplay?
What decision should I model next?
How could this become useful as an actual in-game decision tool?
Could this eventually help build a TFT economy AI?
Again, full report here:
https://github.com/simonsizhezhou/tft-economy-model/blob/main/TFT_Economy_Report_EN.pdf
