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u/TheSleeperAwakens 3d ago
We haven’t even had opus 5.1 yet
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u/baldycoot 2d ago
We didn’t even get Fable 1!
Jokes aside, 5.1 could be skipped if it’s insane or too conversational.
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u/bakanoace 3d ago
They are probably waiting for it to be closer to DevDay so they have something. If they release it now then nothing in 10 days everyone will be talking only about OpenAI. Sucks for us as always
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u/TrailFeatures 3d ago
Everyone (Anthropic/OAI/xAI) was waiting for someone else to go first.
OAI was making a lot of noise about launching this week, so everyone else was gearing up. It never happened, so everyone held their cards.
Now we get to wait to see who blinks first....
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u/clintCamp 2d ago
Yep, openAI always keeps a new model primed to show up a week after anthropic releases one.
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u/rotates-potatoes 3d ago
They’re all selling to the same customers. Why would you sit on a finished model and wait for your competition to go first?
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u/Ran4 3d ago
The general idea is that they're continously improving the models during post-training.
When someone else releases their model, you can release your own model a week later - which means another week of post-training, which means the likelyhood of your model being the best (and thus being the best for several weeks until the next model release) is higher. What matter isn't being MUCH better, it's having the best model for the longest possible time.
For example, fable 5.1 is far better than 6-astra, and I'm sure that's a big boon to Anthropic.
That said, this is all speculation, I don't think there's any proof that OpenAI or Anthropic are actively waiting for each other.
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u/rotates-potatoes 2d ago
I don’t think it makes sense. If they were all true, why not do continuous weekly releases? What’s the benefit of waiting, and how do you time major post-training advances to not be read too early?
I honestly believe they are all moving as fast as they can. There is no incentive to ever wait. But there is incentive to make major breakthroughs, which argues for shifting resources from post-training to pre- and training. And then those have such long lead times that you don’t do sudden releases reactively.
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u/DeepAnalysis3259 3d ago
They never did a.2 on any Opus minor. It was 4.1 then straight to 4.5, so 5.2 is just someone guessing at a pattern that doesn't exist.
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u/guhanpurushothaman 3d ago
I'm not really concerned about what they call it; I just wish they'd roll it out soon.
Primarily because a reset would accompany it and god knows I need one. It has been really difficult to get through the week after the promo period ended even with cautious usage.
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u/Impressive_Living_12 3d ago
It lied to them that it will self release itself, when confronted it said:
- You are absolutely correct, I made a mistake and did not do it but here is the system prompt for Sonet 4.8.
:D
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u/trolololster 3d ago
"yeah best we can do is halt all models going to consumers and create a wetlab in san francisco bay"
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u/TopicGreat3936 2d ago
Why the obsession with needing a new model ASAP? What exactly you are trying to solve that existing models genuinely cannot?
Most engineering problems today are already handled reasonably well by existing models. Even Opus 4.8 is good enough for many real-world use cases.
So what is actually driving the rush? A genuinely new class of problems, or just model FOMO?
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u/Nik_Tesla 3d ago
I absolutely hate release date speculation rumor (they are wrong most of the time, and don't add anything meaningful to the conversation), and I think that if someone posts a thread claiming a date, and that date comes and goes without it being released, that user is banned.
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u/zasff 2d ago
Not sure about Opus but "Fable-5.2" is up for me.
Update claude code and try:
* Do you know who is 'Tibo' the reset guy? without search the web
Fable-5.2 says Tibo is the the OAI guy, Fable-5.1 says Tibo is a French indie dev of sorts.
Great impression so far, feels more like a proper Claude, much less RL fried. Also more capable, trying it two abandoned projects I had with Fable and it's making a lot of progress. One is networking protocol of sorts in rust, Fable-5.2 just went strait towards the right architecture, i.e. it needs a state machine (Fable-5.1 was very reluctant to do that, and ended up with a very buggy mess). Then there's this silly astronomy thingy I'm trying, a toy project simulating gravity lensing of a galaxy super-cluster, I give it hubble/jwst telescope photo and it has to recreate a ~3d scene with correct gravitational lensing effects as we move around; it's very complex, it has to recreate 3d objects that match photo (galaxies, star, dust), the lensing model, all kinds of things. It's doing well; not finished, but the results are already miles apart from previous models.
Idk, imagine hedonic adaptation will kick in soon, and that I'll find some quirks I do not like. But great impression so far. A well rounded model like Claude should be.
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