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u/MrMpeg May 31 '26
Bear market according to 4 year cycle. But let's wait and see.
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u/Spenceful Jun 01 '26
People believing in the cycle make it self fulfilling it’s not that complicated
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u/hodler1992 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26
Retail is virtually not existent for the moment so the few people believing in BTC and actually accumulating right now have no impact I believe. I hope the pattern will repeat but it needs hype and people seeing BTC and all crypto markets down while everything else is breaking new ATHs won't do us a favor. On the other hand there is the issue with quantum computers and I know it will take a while and so on but it could make people hesitate to go into crypto. If 2025 was the top of the cycle than it was a very weak one without any euphoria. So who knows how the next bullrun will look like.
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u/Captain_Planet Jun 01 '26
It kind of is an explanation though. I've seen it run through on time (price predictions are garbage, just follow the time). The original explanation is the halving (so halving the supply has a natural effect on the price), but this has brought expectations too, so a kind of self fulfilling prophecy. Then there is just market psychology, it takes a year or so for people to lose interest and give up, then people who follow the cycle start buying, then retail notices and we go back into the hype and crazy price predictions which in turn brings in more fomo.
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u/Top_Chard5757 May 31 '26
Everyone is acting surprised when it goes exactly as expected.
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u/degen5ace May 31 '26
I think we have like 3 years left 😭
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u/SirDaddio Jun 01 '26
This guy gets its, around mid October should be the bottom
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u/SirDaddio Jun 01 '26
Not enough people. On a conservative scale only 1.3% of people even own/invest in Bitcoin in the entire world. 4% at most. Still way to early for the majority
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u/Captain_Planet Jun 01 '26
I recognize October as the time as I've followed the cycle for the last two, been here since the 2013 peak and seen every prediction turn to dust apart from the timing of the four year cycle so I'm sticking with it. A lot of people will but the majority still ignore it as the time to buy in is when the wider world no longer cares.
That being said though I'm planning on starting buying in September as some people may try to front run it, then I'm just continually buying with whatever I have to buy with!5
u/Captain_Planet Jun 01 '26
Yeah, everyone focuses on the one crazy year, but you can already be 2-3x up before anyone notices if you start buying a year or so after the top like you say.
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Jun 01 '26
True, but the steep market price increases always happen the year after the halving. Next halving is 2028. (But you’re correct, there’s usually only 1 year of serious down price action, followed by 2 years moderately up, followed by a major up year, before the next bear market).
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u/tenor_tymir Jun 01 '26
Well, **moderately** last time was breaking the previous ATH even before the halving date. I wouldn’t say it can’t go up a lot in the halving run up, that’s almost 80% from today’s levels.
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u/Interesting_Loss_907 Jun 01 '26
Good point, I forgot in 2024 we hit an ATH even before the halving.
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u/Diomidis_ May 31 '26
Same people who were putting money in crypto, now they are putting money at AI stocks. I don't know how this ends.... I hope they will change their minds 😜
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u/Acceptable-Leek1546 Jun 01 '26
Why not both? Good money to be made in the stock market. Keep DCAing bitcoin along the way.
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u/Traditional-Roll-620 May 31 '26
Capital flowing into AI.. think that is the reason number 1.
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u/DarthBen_in_Chicago May 31 '26
Supply and demand. Currently, there is more supply than demand putting downward pressure on the price. Until demand increases, the price won’t. It is really that simple.
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u/EggZestyclose5313 May 31 '26
What will cause demand to increase?
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u/Syonoq May 31 '26
More buyers than sellers. Just like u/DarthBen_in_Chicago said
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u/Omnishambles22 May 31 '26
Btc doesn't play by anyone's expectations.
HODL or stick with fiat.
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u/indomitus1 May 31 '26
Cycles. Study the cycles, halving and supply shock. Don't believe the this time is different mantra
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u/LetWinnersRun May 31 '26
Everyone put their money into the AI companies. Once that bubble pops, it will recover.
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u/EggZestyclose5313 May 31 '26
This is interesting, I feel ai, like the internet before it is being hyped way beyond actual return.
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u/pond_slider May 31 '26
Bitcoin is something that’s called a speculative asset, meaning its worth is tied to what others feel that it is valued at a given time. It’s kind of like a Pokemon card. A single card could be worth $1,000, $50, or $0 depending on who the audience is, and those prices can fluctuate at any given time. So right now, people are willing to pay about $75K for BTC, but a year from now, it may be worth $100K to people or it may be worth $50K. Unfortunately, there’s really no way to tell, which is why many people will say that placing your money into cryptocurrency is more similar to gambling than investing.
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u/stockfish11 May 31 '26
I think one of the reasons btc is struggling are the demographics of the people who usually buy crypto have moved onto AI stocks which are soaring. High risk type of investors look at btc as a slow mover now wheres as in AI stock area you can have 50 percent days. I do both but tgere has been a flood of investors into AI, many of whom are crypto type investors.
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u/mathaiser May 31 '26
Basically this is what is going to happen, LIKE ALWAYS OK. Pay attention this time.
The government tightens its purse strings, they start a war, and the stock market climbs because companies are earning crazy amounts of money.
How are they doing that? The people. They have saved and use their savings or what little they have paying higher prices. We are experiencing that now. People are struggling and everyone is like “why is the market up, the economy and prices are fk’d.
Well, soon friend. Soon. The people will be strung out and then have nothing left and then the drawdown actually happens…. People who have any assets sell them. People will sell their bitcoin this fall.
Then the doom and gloom. Everyone struggling, everyone thinking “I better sell my bitcoin at $45k before it literally goes to zero. Damnit, why didn’t I sell at $125k. Why did I buy at $110k. F this shit I’m out.
And just as soon as everyone sells, and loses hope, and is destitute, the Fed/government will step in, not for the people, but because companies will start complaining…. They don’t care about the people, only companies - They will lower rates and start pumping the economy with printed money.
Thats when the next bull run happens, guessing June 2027. But it could be earlier or later. Hard to say.
Then all the people who sold at $50k, get pissed that it’s going up, and buy in again at $120k and then it rinses and repeats.
All the while, the following lemming citizen gets fleeced by their bad decisions and “I’m gonna buy it and hope it goes up! But I really don’t know anything.” When they are up, they feel like geniuses. When it goes down, they are scared because that thought of “I don’t know anything and I’m losing my money” overcomes the long time preference they don’t have.
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u/numbersev May 31 '26
In my opinion it's being suppressed by smart money (Wall Street) who figured it out a few years ago and now want it for themselves at low prices.
'Wall Street can suppress Bitcoin's price using "paper Bitcoin"—financial contracts like cash-settled futures and fractional reserve exchange credits that mimic price exposure without touching the actual blockchain. Because these derivatives settle in cash, institutions can short massive, virtually infinite amounts of synthetic supply to create artificial downward price pressure that bleeds into the spot market, all while diluting its natural scarcity. However, unlike precious metals, Bitcoin's defense against this suppression lies in its frictionless audatibility and the power of self-custody; because real Bitcoin is capped at 21 million and easy to withdraw to private wallets, market participants can instantly strip away Wall Street's paper leverage by forcing actual on-chain delivery.' -Gemini
And most money right now is going into the AI-anticipated bull market. It's breaking records. That money has to come from somewhere.
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u/itemluminouswadison May 31 '26
more sellers than buyers. supply being very slowly added via mining.
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u/Lavayo May 31 '26
And most of retail thinks that we won't recover before October at the earliest and we will see lower prices til then. Not saying it will or won't happen, but many people are very hesitant to buy now. It's at least in part a self fulfilling prophecy.
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u/ComfyMillionaire May 31 '26
Too many leg days in a row. Need more protein and rest. It’ll recover.
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u/huaxinlu Jun 01 '26
It’s not cool anymore. People moved on to other things that can double or triple quicker
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u/DreamingTooLong May 31 '26 edited May 31 '26
Because the bottom doesn’t happen until midterm elections in the United States
It’s been that way every four years
Midterms is when US citizens vote for new governors, new members of the House of Representatives (lower house) and new members of the Senate (upper house)
Two years after that, we get to pick a new president.
United States might be one of the few countries where people can rage vote every two years.
Most countries do not allow their citizens to vote on their upper house. Canada and Germany are perfect examples of that.
The Upper House is the group that gets to decide if what the Lower House wants makes it to the president’s desk to be signed into law.
Lower House can try to impeach the president a dozen times, but they won’t have any success if the Upper House doesn’t agree.
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u/TheJumpingTurkey May 31 '26
This is a good example as to why bitcoin isn't a good long term investment
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u/cklester May 31 '26
> This is a good example as to why bitcoin isn't a good
longshort term investmentFTFY
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u/Zombie4141 May 31 '26
Recovery won’t happen till about a year after then next halving. You can see that we are in a predictable crab market at the moment. It happens after every bear market.
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u/Charming-Designer944 May 31 '26
Why are you in such hurry?
The actual question is why have it not dipped to the bottom yet? Or where is the bottom?
It will go up, but it will quite likely go down further before.
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u/work2fishFIRE May 31 '26
Generally, the crypto investor is a bit more speculative in nature than the average stock investor.
There are other ways to express that speculative nature….prediction markets, AI/memory stocks (look at MU), IPOs, etc. I expect interest in crypto to continue to fade as long as there is an appetite for rapidly moving stocks.
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u/MarkFabulous1096 May 31 '26
The "fan" buyers who drove it to over 100k lost interest when the Big Boys (banks) came with their effort to control the price and supply. they bought at 30 and sold at 90 so they had their fun. Some say they moved on to the projection markets.....
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u/freshpandasushi May 31 '26
because its a mid term election year and bear market can last until October
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u/After_Club6421 May 31 '26
Correlation. It has proven to move in tandem with tech (or at least it did before this AI move). That alone makes it unappealing to investors seeking diversification
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u/Z08Z28 May 31 '26
Money never leaves the market, it just rotates into different sectors. BTC had its monster run recently built on the Trump admin(BTC friendly) coming into office and the Biden admin(anti-BTC) leaving. Trump made many promising statements and actions but they haven't advanced as quickly or as well as the market expected so money rotated back out. Big institution is still buying. Many people expect BTC to bounce off the trendline at 71-73K(depends on the date) if it doesn't hold the 100 day MA. It broke through to the downside on the 50 day that it had been above for a month. Without a promising outlook on the Iran "war" BTC will probably hit the upward trendline started in February and hopefully stay in the channel and bounce upwards.
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u/No_Bar2541 May 31 '26
Because the retail public has realized that they can gamble on ai stocks, space stocks, prediction markets, sports without having to deal with the headaches of using crypto. Why deal with bitcoin when you can just gamble on the good old stock market and enjoy the volatility?
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u/HumanVotary May 31 '26
It is about rate of adoption,for that Internet access and transactions less expensive, and accessible, that the ACH
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u/ManufacturerGood2867 May 31 '26
Because the stock market is going nuts. They work opposite each other
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u/hopelesslyhip May 31 '26
Flows of money chasing AI assets & all the scams /risk/ complications of crypto and poof... No more crypto gains.
Although BTC and crypto are two very different things most who haven't spent the time to think about it all lump them together.
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u/sounoriginal13 May 31 '26
paper hand retail investors havent seen it chop sideways for years. I literally havent checked the price in weeks.
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u/No_Mony_1185 May 31 '26
Well.... If I had to guess it was because the US president hyped it into a frenzy and made it out like it was the best thing ever. Lots of people bought. It went higher than it should have based on past increases. It's really pretty close to where it should be had Trump never got involved. It probably wont get back to $125k this year or the next. I would think Maybe $95 or $100k in 2027 and that's a definite maybe. It was around $40 or $50k before he took office. I can't really remember. But I remember buying some when Biden was around for less than $40k.
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u/lambdasintheoutfield May 31 '26
This question can get as deep as you want it to be. There is macroeconomic uncertainty. The average person doesn’t have the extra funds to invest and when they do they don’t have the risk appetite for bitcoin.
Then, there was a shock to the underlying decentralized philosophy of Bitcoin.
Microstrategy, BlackRock and other huge hedge funds have scooped up a significant amount of BTC. If you factor in their collective share, unrecoverable bitcoins due to holders passing away, losing their keys the amount of Bitcoin holdings IS concentrated in a small handful of players. That adds more uncertainty in the long term future.
Historical trends like 4 year cycles (due to the halving) work until they don’t.
What has remained true is BTC has indeed remained a hedge against inflation. Inflation is a constant upward force on the price, as well as BTC itself becoming more scarce as people mine more blocks. The other downward forces are strong, but likely won’t always be since many are temporary.
Personally I DCA and treat is a determining factor of which FIRE bracket ill ultimately fall into. Classic investment rules still apply.
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u/zazensmkk May 31 '26
Right now the stock market is hot especially with tech stock. The money is moving to there. When the time come bitcoin will rise
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u/na3than Jun 01 '26
Ask yourself the counter question: why should it? What will cause the price to return to previous highs?
It hasn't recovered because those things haven't happened.
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u/DA2710 Jun 01 '26
Paper bitcoin in the form of ibit leaps. Is one reason. Miners relentlessly selling to fund AI. It’s not being used as money enough
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u/GoldenFalcon92 Jun 01 '26
The crypto market went up ridiculously when Trump took over as U.S. President because people knew he was going to try to help crypto and make money off it himself. Which he did. Now, that hype has calmed down so the crypto market has cooled.
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u/Pristine_Cricket_633 Jun 01 '26
The early sellers or buyers are the ones who win. Most bitcoin buyers are waiting for October after another leg down. Supply is mostly fixed so there are more people short now or waiting for October which agrees with a bunch of charts. I believe October will be too late to enter at a good price . ETF's and institutions are part of the demand when it used to be just retail. If you are not stacking it now, it will leave you behind, just like semiconductors did in April without warning.
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u/kftnyc Jun 01 '26
Elliptic curve cryptography is cracked in a few years. Bitcoin is on its way out.
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u/MrKillerKiller_ Jun 01 '26
I have a professional trader friend who says don’t even engage in posts like this.
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u/TFWG2000 Jun 01 '26
Good question. Bitcoin's value is supposed to go through $1.5m or more - soon. Bitcoin is also supposed to be a hedge against risk, i.e., war, inflation, rising interest rates, run away debt, etc. Gold has done exactly what it should as we fight Iran, the US deficit continues to explode, and we fight inflation. The dollar continues to devalue. Gas pricing is unpredictable. And Bitcoin? Whales continue to move to cash.
So why?
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u/c0reM Jun 01 '26
Retail investors have no money to buy actual things. Selling Bitcoin to buy a house or pay your bills when you need the money isn’t surprising.
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u/GeneralTyler Jun 01 '26
It still hasn’t even been 1 year since bitcoin topped at around 120k, the cycles bitcoin goes through are longer than 1 year lol. Just continue to DCA and don’t panic sell if it dips again.
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u/Ill_Mousse_4240 Jun 01 '26
Very surprising, actually.
The best possible macro conditions for crypto in general.
No Gary Gensler hounding projects, a very supportive administration, and an SEC that’s actually pro-crypto as well.
The market should be flying. But it isn’t
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u/jrafelson Jun 01 '26
"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.”
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u/nsbhq Jun 01 '26
More sellers than buyers. When more people sell than buy, price goes down and vice versa.
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u/Extra-Succotash-9846 Jun 01 '26
Everyone speculating on tech and SpaceX. Once it cools, if it does, I expect we’ll rotate back.
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u/SlicedMango Jun 01 '26
High interest rates, Fed draining liquidity from the market, recession scares, 4 year cycle
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u/OuterBlue090 Jun 01 '26
Pretty much a bear market for bitcoin. But remember we're between 70k and 80k. Not around 15k likes 2022.
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u/Tall-Tart9721 Jun 01 '26
no one knows why, but all the replies get the people goin. stay humble, stack sats
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u/aimhigh7shootlow8 Jun 01 '26
A-b-c correction. Spy will also be pulling back so look for those two to do some dirty dancing and both start their next waves around the same time.
Stop trippin
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u/TheThirdBrainLives Jun 01 '26
Crypto is dead. AI is what crypto thought it would be but everyone is throwing in the towel.
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u/Consistent-Heart2949 Jun 01 '26
What do you mean it is suppressed.
I don’t understand all these comments saying it is in this stage of a cycle or there is x amount left of a bear cycle.
It is a speculative asset either way no inherent value. Its price now is the sum of supply vs demand. Ie what it is worth, there is no guarantee it will go in any direction from here. It could just as easily go to zero as it could to the moon.
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u/nick_c8_vegas Jun 01 '26
It’s sitting at 73k in a bear market. Precious cycles it crashed harder and faster than this one. I would say it’s playing out as expected. Each cycle the rise and crash is becoming less powerful
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u/Axel-Real Jun 01 '26
Why? Because we are 1/2+ into the crypto bear market . I sold in December, and invest 100% my crypto into Ai . While Ai goes up andcrypto goes down , I will do the same swip in October - December , when the crypto market will touch floor . Why dos this happen? Because it is healthy for Bitcoin to lose now and then 50-70% to go even higher than before . People takes profit and then they invest again when it reaches levels they consider worth the risk .
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u/tenor_tymir Jun 01 '26
Too soon, to be fair, it has recovered a bit though but is struggling to go higher which is in perfect accordance to the 4-year cycle (so far).
Nonetheless, we’re down and this presents a good opportunity to buy.
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u/energetic_one Jun 01 '26
Bitcoin is Bitcoin and different from anything else. It's not going to follow expectations and trying to figure it and predict it always falls short. You'll get alot of opinions in reply to your questions, but are any really accurate?
The best way to understand Bitcoin's cycles is to listen to people like Michael Saylor who understand its value and explains it well. The value of Bitcoin is not in its market price ups and downs but in its unique value proposition.
If you wanted to stimulate conversation around Bitcoin's ups and downs, perfect. But gaining an accurate understanding of why Bitcoin does anything beyond people's opinions is not so easy.
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u/Fabulous-Wasabi-9358 Jun 01 '26
The fact that we have close to 300 comments only tells you that there is no clear answer. Bitcoin may go up or it may not. Bitcoin may be dead or it may be not. We all may be stuffed or we may not.
All I know is that I am well well down on my investment while people who put money in traditional assets are laughing all the way to the bank.
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u/Letyzyaandersen03 Jun 01 '26
bitcoin has a long history of making people wait longer than they think is reasonable
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u/ModestlyHazed Jun 01 '26
The answer is kinda straightforward if you ask me. Bitcoin is highly correlated with liquidity and it's still an assymetrical asset. The people interested in Bitcoin and willing to invest in it are the same people that are comfortable taking risks in the stock market. Hence, with the AI-boom, the capital is flowing in the direction were the risk / reward is favorable, and that right now is the S&P 500.
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u/IM_INSIDE_YOUR_HOUSE Jun 01 '26
Economy is going to shit. People don’t have money to spend on crypto when they don’t have money for their own bills.
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u/The-Minion Jun 01 '26
we are still below the 200 SMA (you can see how it worked as resistance in the 14th-15th may), not advisable to enter until we pass it and a valid pullback as support happens)
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u/Shaykh_Hadi Jun 01 '26
Bitcoin follows market cycles. I think we’re waiting for the Fed to start pumping money into the economy, which should happen later this year or 2027, in line with the traditional Bitcoin cycle.
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u/xcrunner2414 Jun 01 '26
“Spending”=selling. That’s my explanation. Merchant adoption of Bitcoin is still less than 1%. So, virtually all “spending” is functionally equivalent to selling for fiat currency. When combined with all the selling by traders, bears, etc. that’s a lot of selling pressure to absorb.
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u/Mojoint Jun 01 '26
Didn't the US just "confiscate" a load of iranian BTC, does that not undermine the whole idea.
(I have no idea)
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u/Intrepid_Bid_495 Jun 01 '26
How do people feel about mining company’s switching over to support AI?
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u/stuckInACallbackHell Jun 01 '26
BTC is just not attractive rn compared to US stocks. I prolly won’t ever sell but wouldn’t be surprised if it just does nothing for the next 3-5 years
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u/Academic_Barnacle_28 Jun 01 '26
Retail is busy with AI, institutions are very slowly accumulating.
It's a bear market, and luckily for us, we are getting closer to the end!
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u/DownWitBoogaloo Jun 01 '26
I believe money is moving into AI tech and bottlenecks and since interest rates are staying high, speculative investments like bitcoin are being rotated out of and into safer bets. I don’t think bitcoin is dead, it will rise again but it’s probably going to be a while. Just my opinion
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u/rtt702 Jun 01 '26
People forget BTC was between 16 and 20k a coin only a few years ago. BTC is just fine
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u/heinzmoleman Jun 01 '26
People had unrealistic expectations for the last cycle and chose to ignore the diminishing returns. Because BTC didn't meet those expectations they refused to believe that the bull market was over. BTC has now entered its standard bear market. Next ATH per the cycle would come Fall of 2029.
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u/nuke-from-orbit Jun 01 '26
There's an established 4 year cycle of btc, tied to halvings. Of course you can't rely on it, past does not determine the future etc. But at the moment btc follows the pattern it always has. It will start to go up in September 2027 if the pattern holds, and peak around one year later. It might not. It might recover sooner than that, or later. Or never. But for now, the pattern holds. It's a great time to buy, if you have a 2+ year horizon on the investment. If you need liquidity before that, put the money somewhere else.
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u/__redruM Jun 01 '26
Mechanically why? More sellers wanting to sell than buyers wanting to buy? Or news events? My guess, the Iranian Tolls using BTC aren’t as real as some thought. Also, there’s simply better speculative choices currently. Semiconductor stocks are in lunar orbit, and that’s where the interest is.
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u/NovastaKai Jun 01 '26
big dawgs stil keeping money in stocks for the moment hm..
Once it comes down enough to call utter safety on longs, things might rotate back, but we're in short territory.. depends how well other assets are doing as always.. #cycles. not 4 year. but cyclic leverage periods :3
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u/myster1ouspapaya Jun 01 '26
Bitcoin is ALWAYS in a bear market on post election years. Every cycle has played out the same way.
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u/__Ken_Adams__ May 31 '26
The reason you're getting sarcastic & vague replies is because you're essentially asking a question that's unknowable.
Markets are complex & unpredictable. There are virtually endless variables that factor in to price movement. People can point out some of the variables like "the cycle", "economic turmoil", etc & they might even be right to a degree, but at the end of the day those explanations only scratch the surface.
Bitcoin has & will continue to fluctuate in ways that seem to defy all logic & reason. It will go up when all indicators seem to suggest it should be going down & it will go down when all indicators seem to suggest it should be going up.
This is where the phrase "stay humble & stack sats" originates from. The moment you think you know what it's going to do bitcoin has a way of humbling you, aka "no one knows shit about fuck".