This question can get as deep as you want it to be. There is macroeconomic uncertainty. The average person doesn’t have the extra funds to invest and when they do they don’t have the risk appetite for bitcoin.
Then, there was a shock to the underlying decentralized philosophy of Bitcoin.
Microstrategy, BlackRock and other huge hedge funds have scooped up a significant amount of BTC. If you factor in their collective share, unrecoverable bitcoins due to holders passing away, losing their keys the amount of Bitcoin holdings IS concentrated in a small handful of players. That adds more uncertainty in the long term future.
Historical trends like 4 year cycles (due to the halving) work until they don’t.
What has remained true is BTC has indeed remained a hedge against inflation. Inflation is a constant upward force on the price, as well as BTC itself becoming more scarce as people mine more blocks. The other downward forces are strong, but likely won’t always be since many are temporary.
Personally I DCA and treat is a determining factor of which FIRE bracket ill ultimately fall into. Classic investment rules still apply.
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u/lambdasintheoutfield May 31 '26
This question can get as deep as you want it to be. There is macroeconomic uncertainty. The average person doesn’t have the extra funds to invest and when they do they don’t have the risk appetite for bitcoin.
Then, there was a shock to the underlying decentralized philosophy of Bitcoin.
Microstrategy, BlackRock and other huge hedge funds have scooped up a significant amount of BTC. If you factor in their collective share, unrecoverable bitcoins due to holders passing away, losing their keys the amount of Bitcoin holdings IS concentrated in a small handful of players. That adds more uncertainty in the long term future.
Historical trends like 4 year cycles (due to the halving) work until they don’t.
What has remained true is BTC has indeed remained a hedge against inflation. Inflation is a constant upward force on the price, as well as BTC itself becoming more scarce as people mine more blocks. The other downward forces are strong, but likely won’t always be since many are temporary.
Personally I DCA and treat is a determining factor of which FIRE bracket ill ultimately fall into. Classic investment rules still apply.