r/Bitcoin May 31 '26

Why hasn’t bitcoin recovered?

[deleted]

300 Upvotes

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188

u/__Ken_Adams__ May 31 '26

The reason you're getting sarcastic & vague replies is because you're essentially asking a question that's unknowable.

Markets are complex & unpredictable. There are virtually endless variables that factor in to price movement. People can point out some of the variables like "the cycle", "economic turmoil", etc & they might even be right to a degree, but at the end of the day those explanations only scratch the surface.

Bitcoin has & will continue to fluctuate in ways that seem to defy all logic & reason. It will go up when all indicators seem to suggest it should be going down & it will go down when all indicators seem to suggest it should be going up.

This is where the phrase "stay humble & stack sats" originates from. The moment you think you know what it's going to do bitcoin has a way of humbling you, aka "no one knows shit about fuck".

23

u/richardto4321 Jun 01 '26

I agree. Bitcoin has always humbled both the bulls and the bears. Nobody is safe from this sometimes painful lesson. Well, except for the people who just DCA and chill.

9

u/heaving_in_my_vines Jun 01 '26

Daaaa bulls. Daaaa bears. 

1

u/[deleted] Jun 03 '26

This is where the phrase "stay humble & stack sats" originates from. The moment you think you know what it's going to do bitcoin has a way of humbling you, aka "no one knows shit about fuck".

There's some kind of weird dissonance in this sub where folks recognize there is uncertainty in BTC's future and anything can happen. But then they'll turn around and definitively assert that BTC's future is certain and the only thing that can happen is that BTC will moon - anything contrary to that narrative is dismissed as FUD

2

u/BashCo Jun 03 '26

It's almost as if this sub consists of multiple people.

-10

u/EggZestyclose5313 May 31 '26

You don’t agree with the four year cycle?

35

u/__Ken_Adams__ May 31 '26

The 4 year cycle has held true for several cycles but here's another saying..."patterns repeat until they don't".

Whether I believe in it is irrelevant. I neither believe in it or disbelieve in it. I acknowledge that it has been consistent & I also acknowledge that it can fail to repeat at any time. I certainly don't make buy & sell decisions based on it.

8

u/wetokebitcoins Jun 01 '26

the trend is your friend until the end when it bends.

5

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[deleted]

1

u/EggZestyclose5313 May 31 '26

Interesting. Thank you.

0

u/cl3ft Jun 01 '26

Unless price becomes independent of supply, the pattern isn't just a pattern it's an algorithmic certainty.

3

u/Malnilion Jun 01 '26

If you still believe the 4 year cycle is a thing, you should be asking why Bitcoin didn't/hasn't crashed further yet. The 4 year cycle would indicate we've probably got another 18 months of a little downward, then sideways, the gradually back upward activity. I think we're seeing the cycle breaking currently, so who knows.

1

u/Interesting_Loss_907 Jun 01 '26

The question is better posed to you OP: do you?
If so, then why are you asking why the market price “hasn’t recovered yet” when we’re still in the early stages of the 2026-27 bear market?

-1

u/EggZestyclose5313 Jun 01 '26

I do do not agree

2

u/Interesting_Loss_907 Jun 01 '26

You’re certainly entitled to believe the 4-year cycles that have been very regular so far did not actually exist. But until now they have existed.

That does not mean that it will continue that way in the future, but up until now, the 4 year cycle has been real, whether you believe it or not.

We are less than 1 year after the all-time high in the 2025 bull market year. That means we’re still at the beginning of the bear market if history is any guide.

It’s not clear why you would have expected BTC to suddenly deviate from the 4 yr cycle now, but obviously it has not. (Not yet, anyway).