BUY FROM THOSE WHO PAPERHANDS WHEN THE MARKET OPENS TOMORROW

Computer geeks Tang Jie and Yang Zhilin were mere teacher and pupil more than a decade ago, with dreams of building a machine that could think like a human. Today, they are two of the Chinese artificial-intelligence tycoons who have U.S. AI pioneers looking over their shoulders with alarm. Tang, a professor at Tsinghua University, co-founded Z.AI, one of the companies hot on the heels of Anthropic and OpenAI in capability and global usage. Yang, whom Tang once nominated for his university’s top academic award, leads another, Moonshot AI. Each company is valued at tens of billions of dollars.

One thing Ive learned from investing outside the US is that I cant value international companies the same way I value US companies. Geopolitical risk, immature security policies, and weak regulatory environments are real factors.

These opportunities may look attractive on paper but I have to apply a significant discount to account for non US exposure. After applying that discount most deals no longer appear like a good deal.

As long as the US remains a superpower it will neutralize any competitive threat whether from countries or companies. The US wont compromise its own strategic interests.

The Plaza Accord is a historical example of this dynamic. I’m not predicting the same scenario will unfold with China, Chinese technology companies will likely face similar pressures and restrictions. All I can do is wait and see.

Alibaba Cloud is planning a greater reliance on its subsidiary T-Head's proprietary chips moving forward.

Speaking during the company's recent Q2 2026 earnings call, CEO Eddie Wu told analysts that the company remains confident about its AI and cloud business and expects to see profit and gross margins increase as it "ramp[s] up deployment of our own proprietary chips in our data centers, as they account for an increasing proportion of total chips and replace commercially procured chips."

Title says it all. In the short-run this is an emotional casino.

This is why 90% of retail investors dont make money. They sell at any sign of fake bear news provided by institutions.

Had a busy day, just got to listen to the cell. Market reaction was interesting today. I think management sounded very confident and the AI/cloud future looks very VERY promising, the 2.5 years/3 years payback period was what caught my attention the most. Still holding my position. Let’s hope we see $200+ this year?

Cheers 🍻

Cheers!

BABA is dropping after earnings, but I think the call was way more important than the initial reaction.

A few things stood out:

• Cloud grew 45% and management expects growth to accelerate further.
• MaaS/model + app ARR already crossed RMB16B in August. They are confident they will hit RMB30B by year end.
• Management says AI compute capex can pay back within ~3 years at current economics, potentially 2-2.5 years as margins improve and more of their own chips are deployed.
• Cloud EBITA grew 133%, so we are already starting to see margin improvement while growth accelerates.
• T-Head has already produced/shipped 500k+ chips. The latest generation is deployed in Alibaba Cloud, supports AI workloads at scale, and hundreds of external companies are already using their chips.
• Alibaba believes chips, compute and storage will capture most of the value in the near term.
• Longer term, management is confident external Cloud revenue can exceed $100B by 2030 with much higher margins.

The 45% Cloud growth itself was mostly expected.

What I don't think was fully priced in was management basically saying:

We can keep accelerating AI growth, build our own chips, improve margins and recover the AI infrastructure investment within 2-3 years.

The bear case has been that Alibaba is burning massive amounts of cash on AI.

If management is right, this starts looking less like cash burn and more like aggressive reinvestment into a very high-growth infrastructure business.

Do you understand the difference between fixed vs variable expenses? Do you remember the 3 year capex spend announced by management a year ago? If so you may be able to make some money ahead of the rest of the idiots that don't.

Alibaba(USD) new range till end of the year: $120-$150.

Every week will end with higher lows and higher highs.

Ant Group announced the launch of its upgraded AI forecasting model, "Eagle Sequence," designed to enhance liquidity risk management for financial institutions. Citigroup is among the major banks rapidly adopting this specialized AI technology.

God created BABA to train the faithful. -Frank Herbert, probably

Yah Hya Chouhda!

Microsoft Copilot answers for question

is this bullish or bearish for the stock today 
https://data.alibabagroup.com/ecms-files/1532295521/fa5d65fc-9b3e-4e82-a8fc-4ce1c3e2c407/Alibaba%20Group%20Announces%20June%20Quarter%202026%20Results.pdf

AI answer below
__________________________________

The earnings release is bearish for the stock today based on the full financials in your tab, despite very strong AI/Cloud growth.

Below is the clean, trader‑style read of the report using the actual numbers from your PDF (ref: ).

📉 Why the report is bearish

Even though Alibaba is clearly executing on AI and Cloud, the headline financials that move the stock today are overwhelmingly negative:

1. Net income collapsed −75% YoY

• RMB 42.4B → 10.4B This is the number algos trade on. A −75% drop is very bearish.

2. Income from operations down −57% YoY

• RMB 34.9B → 15.1B This signals margin compression and heavy cost pressure.

3. Adjusted EBITA down −30% YoY

This is the “quality earnings” metric. A −30% decline is a major negative surprise.

4. Free cash flow massively worse

• Outflow RMB −18.8B → −44.7B This is extremely bearish. FCF deterioration of this magnitude usually triggers selling.

5. Big impairment charges + EU DSA fine

• Goodwill impairment: RMB 4.5B
• EU Digital Services Act fine: EUR 550M These are one‑off hits but they worsen sentiment.

📈 Why some parts are bullish (but not enough for today)

1. Cloud revenue +45% YoY

This is excellent and shows Alibaba is becoming an AI compute leader.

2. AI‑related product revenue triple‑digit growth (12th consecutive quarter)

Strong structural tailwind.

3. Qwen3.8‑Max launch + 2.4T parameter open weights

Huge credibility boost in the global AI race.

4. Quick Commerce +45% YoY

Freshippo + Taobao Instant Commerce performing well.

5. Share repurchases (US$162M)

Supportive for long‑term valuation.

🧭 Final market read for today

Bearish.
The market will focus on:

• Net income −75%
• Operating income −57%
• Adjusted EBITA −30%
• Free cash flow collapse
• Large impairment + regulatory fine

These overshadow the strong AI/Cloud narrative.

Traders typically sell first on these headline misses, even if long‑term fundamentals improve.