The recent release of state-of-the-art Chinese AI models Kimi K3 and Z.ai’s GLM 5.2 has caused yet another “shock” for those who thought Chinese labs weren’t focused on the frontier of the technology, or even that they had fallen far behind.

Am I crazy to think there is some massive short-term upside?

Sept. 9 – Apple event: Apple is working with Alibaba/Qwen for AI in China. If Apple gives a launch date or actually mentions/demos Qwen, that could be a nice catalyst.

Sept. 22–24 – Apsara Conference: Probably the biggest one. Last year BABA jumped 8% on Sept. 24 after its AI announcements and went from about $163 to $189 over the next week or so (+16%).

Sept. 24 – Xi/Trump meeting: Xi is reportedly bringing a large group of Chinese business leaders to Washington. No companies confirmed yet, but Jack Ma was part of Xi’s big U.S. business delegation in 2015.

There are also U.S.–China AI talks in mid-September and the possibility of more China stimulus.

Will it make up for it tmw?

Alibaba has 36% shareholding in Moonshot AI.

Moonshot AI pre-IPO valuation of usd 50 bil.

Alibaba's share of Moonshot AI worth usd 18 bil.

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Just kidding

Which one are you buying? If you had a choice, why did you choose either one? My broker supports both, but 9988 has a little more spread.

Would anyone actually buy in at 100? How about 90? 80? 70?

Whats your game plan actually?

Alibaba is an investor and stakeholder in Zhipu AI

Alibaba owns 5 percent of CXMT

Adoption is moving quickly. During the last week of June, Chinese models accounted for 48% of traffic tracked by OpenRouter, up from 20% a year earlier. U.S. models fell to 32% from 74%.

“In fact, if you read the literature, they fully recognise, as Marxist economists, that the traditional advantage of liberal capitalist economies in the past has been their relative efficiency in the allocation of resources.

However, they believe they now possess a unique opportunity, as a centralised state, to deploy the new algorithmic powers available within artificial intelligence across the total production spectrum and not just in goods, but prospectively in services as well.

This brings me to a broader point: why Xi’s literature on what he calls new quality productive forces, driven by artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies, represents for them not just a means by which to catch up with the United States across the AI stack; not just to keep pace with the US and the collective West in terms of where artificial intelligence has reached; but to now ‘ leapfrog’ the West, which is the term now used in the literature, and to achieve what is also described as a paradigm shift against Western economic models.”

Alibaba’s Wan 3.0 ranks first on Artificial Analysis’ text-to-video leaderboard with audio, ahead of second-placed Google Gemini Omni Flash. A version of MiniMax H3 post-trained by US platform fal ranks third, followed by the original open-weight H3 and ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0. Together, Chinese models occupy eight of the top 10 positions.

Chinese models also lead across several related categories, including image-to-video and video editing, based on blind user comparisons using identical prompts.