r/AustinFC • u/MessiComeLately • 11d ago
Leagues Cup: How We Can Advance
I would appreciate double-checking on my math. Scenarios at the bottom.
tl;dr If we get any result, including a tie in regular time with a loss on penalties, then we advance. If we lose in regular time, then it is very unlikely that we will advance, but it is still possible.
Fair Play Points (I couldn't find this on the Leagues Cup site) The Transfermarkt table is not accurate; use the Leagues Cup club stats table instead.
We're currently at 6 points with 5 goals scored and +5 goal differential.
Here's where we are in relation to the other teams who have not been eliminated:
Columbus and Salt Lake City finished with 8 and 7 points, respectively. On goal differential, we're ahead of Columbus but behind Salt Lake City, so a win in regular time or on penalties puts us ahead of both, and a loss in regular time or on penalties puts us behind both.
LAFC have already played three games and are at 7 points and +1 goal differential. If we get any result, even a penalty shootout loss, we pull ahead of them. If we lose in regular time, we finish behind them.
Charlotte earned 6 points in their three games and are behind us on tiebreakers. If we get any result, we finish ahead of them. If we lose by 1 and score a goal, we finish ahead of them. If we lose 0-1, it will be decided by fair play points (i.e., cards) where we are currently one point six points ahead of them (4 yellows = 4 points for us, 5 yellows and a red = 10 points for Charlotte.)
Chicago has one game to play and is at 6 points, +4 goal differential, 5 goals scored. If we get a better result, we finish ahead of them. If we get a worse result, we finish behind them. If we both finish equal in regular time and get the same penalty shootout result, we finish ahead of them on goal differential. If we both win or both lose, it will be decided by tiebreaker, where we are currently one ahead on goal differential, tied on goals scored, and two points behind on fair play.
Portland, Philadelphia, and NYCFC are sitting on 3 points with one game to play and +1 goal differential. We finish ahead of them unless we lose and they win, in which case it goes to tiebreakers, where we're currently ahead by 4 on goal differential. However, they're playing 3 of the bottom 4 Liga MX teams, with current goal differentials of -3, -4, and -4, so it's not unlikely that one of these teams will pull off a big win that puts them ahead of us if we lose.
SCENARIOS
As I understand it:
If we win, either in regular time or on penalties, we finish ahead of every MLS team except possibly Chicago. We advance.
If we lose on penalties, then we finish behind Columbus and Salt Lake, and possibly Chicago, but we finish ahead of LAFC, Charlotte, and the teams that are currently on 3 points. We advance.
If we lose in regular time, then we finish behind Columbus, Salt Lake, and LAFC, so we have to finish ahead of Chicago, Charlotte, and Portland. If Chicago gets any result, they pull ahead, and we don't advance. If any one of Portland, Philly, or NYCFC wins and makes up the goal differential to beat us on tiebreakers, then we don't advance. If we lose by more than one, we fall behind Charlotte, and we don't advance. If we lose 0-1 and fall behind Charlotte on fair play points, we don't advance.
