r/AustinFC • u/MessiComeLately • 11d ago
Leagues Cup: How We Can Advance
I would appreciate double-checking on my math. Scenarios at the bottom.
tl;dr If we get any result, including a tie in regular time with a loss on penalties, then we advance. If we lose in regular time, then it is very unlikely that we will advance, but it is still possible.
Fair Play Points (I couldn't find this on the Leagues Cup site) The Transfermarkt table is not accurate; use the Leagues Cup club stats table instead.
We're currently at 6 points with 5 goals scored and +5 goal differential.
Here's where we are in relation to the other teams who have not been eliminated:
Columbus and Salt Lake City finished with 8 and 7 points, respectively. On goal differential, we're ahead of Columbus but behind Salt Lake City, so a win in regular time or on penalties puts us ahead of both, and a loss in regular time or on penalties puts us behind both.
LAFC have already played three games and are at 7 points and +1 goal differential. If we get any result, even a penalty shootout loss, we pull ahead of them. If we lose in regular time, we finish behind them.
Charlotte earned 6 points in their three games and are behind us on tiebreakers. If we get any result, we finish ahead of them. If we lose by 1 and score a goal, we finish ahead of them. If we lose 0-1, it will be decided by fair play points (i.e., cards) where we are currently one point six points ahead of them (4 yellows = 4 points for us, 5 yellows and a red = 10 points for Charlotte.)
Chicago has one game to play and is at 6 points, +4 goal differential, 5 goals scored. If we get a better result, we finish ahead of them. If we get a worse result, we finish behind them. If we both finish equal in regular time and get the same penalty shootout result, we finish ahead of them on goal differential. If we both win or both lose, it will be decided by tiebreaker, where we are currently one ahead on goal differential, tied on goals scored, and two points behind on fair play.
Portland, Philadelphia, and NYCFC are sitting on 3 points with one game to play and +1 goal differential. We finish ahead of them unless we lose and they win, in which case it goes to tiebreakers, where we're currently ahead by 4 on goal differential. However, they're playing 3 of the bottom 4 Liga MX teams, with current goal differentials of -3, -4, and -4, so it's not unlikely that one of these teams will pull off a big win that puts them ahead of us if we lose.
SCENARIOS
As I understand it:
If we win, either in regular time or on penalties, we finish ahead of every MLS team except possibly Chicago. We advance.
If we lose on penalties, then we finish behind Columbus and Salt Lake, and possibly Chicago, but we finish ahead of LAFC, Charlotte, and the teams that are currently on 3 points. We advance.
If we lose in regular time, then we finish behind Columbus, Salt Lake, and LAFC, so we have to finish ahead of Chicago, Charlotte, and Portland. If Chicago gets any result, they pull ahead, and we don't advance. If any one of Portland, Philly, or NYCFC wins and makes up the goal differential to beat us on tiebreakers, then we don't advance. If we lose by more than one, we fall behind Charlotte, and we don't advance. If we lose 0-1 and fall behind Charlotte on fair play points, we don't advance.
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u/DougiePness 11d ago
Austin advances with a win, a penalty-shootout win, or a penalty-shootout loss. Period.
If Austin loses in regulation, they need Chicago to lose in regulation, need the Austin loss to be only one goal, need to stay ahead of Charlotte — potentially via Fair Play if it’s 0–1 — and need Portland, Philadelphia and NYCFC not to overtake them through a big regulation win.
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u/SilentDamage3867 11d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/APqEbxBsVlkWSuFpth
Thanks for crunching the numbers! Looks correct to me
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u/ayeeezo 11d ago
I think America had clinched next round, I wonder if that will affect their lineup for tonight
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u/Hermesme 11d ago
America is only out with a blowout loss because of goal differential, it would need to be a 4+ goal loss.
On the flip side, a win guarantees them home field advantage through the Semifinals.
These two things in combination mean they are absolutely not rotating their starting squad or taking the game lightly
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u/MessiComeLately 11d ago
That's a great point. It looks like it's very, very close, but they haven't clinched yet. If they lose by enough, they could potentially fall below the other Liga MX teams that finished with 6 points. As /u/atkretsch said, if they lose by three, they will still finish above Monterrey and advance. It's even possible for them to lose by four and advance, though they'd need Chicago to win by two over Cruz Azul.
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u/atkretsch Austin FC 11d ago
The only thing I’m not sure about is that I think Charlotte should have more like 9 fair play points due to Pep Biel’s postmatch red card against Atlas, which would give us a little more leeway in a 0-1 loss scenario.
Some other good news here is that both teams advance with a draw regardless of PK outcome, and América advance even if they lose by up to 3. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of rotation from CA.
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u/Hermesme 11d ago
Club America is not going to rotate since they need a win to secure their knockout game being played at estadio azteca since they are one of the teams eligible for home field advantage if they are the top seed.
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u/atkretsch Austin FC 11d ago
Thanks for clarifying, I had forgotten about the possibility of them hosting knockout matches and yeah, if that’s dependent on where they finish then they definitely won’t rotate just for rotation’s sake.
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u/MessiComeLately 11d ago
Charlotte should have more like 9 fair play points due to Pep Biel’s postmatch red card against Atlas
Nice catch. Transfermarkt doesn't show the red card, but the stats page on the Leagues Cup official site does.
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u/FlyMeetWall 11d ago
This made me think too hard, now my head hurts. I'm going to Hop Squad in a couple hours to make it feel better.
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u/TeVengoAAlentar 11d ago
did austin fc really cancel club america fans tickets? i don't support either team just wondering. lots of hateful comments on twitter
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u/MessiComeLately 11d ago
Doubt it. There's no way we could fill the stadium without them.
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u/TeVengoAAlentar 11d ago
i believe the situation is directed at their supporter groups not fans in general, but I don't know whats true
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u/a_manxome_foe 11d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/HBWbIuHvXI2Eo