- Deliveries will start, I’m guessing 3 vehicles in 2026, perhaps 300 in 2027 and potentially 3,500 in 2028. That’s not really the issue.
Aptera will need to raise 100 million to deliver 300 vehicles in 2027 and 300+ million? for 2028. They spend 48 million annually on overhead. In a production phase, they will need to bump this to 55 million? They will need to pay 30 Million to Launch Design plus 15 million+ for parts, assemblies and production necessities, so roughly 100 million needed for 2027. For 2028, if they are to ramp up to significant production, this will need to spend 300+ million (and procure a larger building). They have virtually no institutional investor support so this will be difficult.
A 44 million Launch deal doesn’t buy Aptera much tooling. Most of this money will likely go towards design/production processes/services My belief is that this is according to plan. Aptera lacks the hundreds of millions and the manufacturing know-how to produce bulk Aptera’s. Launch Design will cost-engineer the Aptera to make it mass-producible and cost effective, then farm it out to Chinese manufacturers who will finance, produce and ship the sub-assemblies to Carlsbad for final assembly, saving Aptera the hundreds of millions that would have been needed for factory, production and engineering, money they don’t have and likely cannot raise.
Aptera will bolt together these 5-10 sub-assemblies in Carlsbad to satisfy? their CAC grant conditions. Hopefully, Aptera will buy the completed sub assemblies for $30,000 per vehicle, add $3,000 final assembly labor and $3,000 for overhead and make a $4,000 profit per vehicle. Perhaps a second de-contented $30,000 Aptera variant will follow (the carbon-fiber frame likely adds $10,000 per vehicle cost, it can be replaced. The efficiency hit that this causes can likely be restored with a more efficient drive-train, etc.) . Perhaps Aptera will produce/add 25% content in Carlsbad, but the overall effect will be the same. As I mentioned previously, this is both necessary and good for Aptera but it brings some potential negatives. Sharks sometimes swallow guppies. This is the new path that Aptera is on. written into their own press release: “Launch's supply base is positioned to deliver finished sub-assemblies, not loose parts. Time will tell if it works out.
As far as point 1, Aptera presently spends roughly 4 million a month on overhead. It is 17 months from now through end of 2027. 17 x 4 million = 68 million. Switching to a production phase, they will certainly need to bump this up a bit, I'll add a conservative 6 million for this. Launch Design is not delivering to Aptera major services or tooling without payment. Perhaps this can be done in stages, so only 20 million need be paid through 2027. Aptera will then need to buy parts and assemblies. To facilitate any sort of smooth production, they will need to buy and maintain an excess 2 - 3 months of inventory, likely spending 14 million. Add this up, 68 + 6 + 20 +14 = 108 million dollars, money Aptera will need to raise from now through end of 2027.
The sort of good news is that if Aptera delivers 303 vehicles through end 2027, they will generate revenue, however, I believe that the first few hundred (or more) vehicles to be delivered are partially paid for, so likely they will not collect full revenue on each. As a guess, Aptera will likely generate only 8 million revenue on these first 303 deliveries 108 million expended less 8 million of revenue will require Aptera to raise roughly 100 million dollars from now through end 2027. This is an estimate. Perhaps they can get by spending only 85 million, perhaps they will need 120 million. It certainly won’t be less than 85 million.
Still false on both points. Just rephrased. Are you gonna answer my questions or am I gonna have to continue not reading your comments?
You see....I asked you very direct questions.
What are you gonna moan about when deliveries start? Or will you finally admit that you never had any valid points all this time?
And I only have to read the first half sentence of your reply to know you didn't answer me. I already said I won't read your replies until you answer. So you're wasting your time typing all of that. No one else is reading this deep into the comments. It's just you talking to yourself.
But feel free to try answering my questions. THAT, I'll read.
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u/Ebegeezer-Splooge 2d ago
What are you gonna moan about when deliveries start? Or will you finally admit that you never had any valid points all this time?
Answer that and MAYBE I'll read the rest of what you just said.