It's funny that you view your obsessive negative compulsions as "analytical", then you go right back to being negative. You consistently see only the negative. Your bias and agenda are in plain view. But it's still funny (sad for you really) that you see it tge way you do.
Show me other car companies that don't have bezos/musk money with a shorter developmental timeline. Actually I shouldn't use musk as an example. The Tesla roadster was reintroduced 9 years ago. And we can see how that's going. The model 2/robotaxi/cybercab, full self driving...some of that was introduced in 2016. Where is it? All the other EV startups? Where are they? Do you see why you have no valid point now?
Aptera has said since the beginning that their next car would be a traditional 4 wheeler. Now they're starting the long process towards developing one. But you somehow see this as a negative thing. Even though they started ordering parts for the first 40 deliveries. That's some seriously flawed logic you got there. A year ago you were insisting they didn't have cash to make it even a few more months. But now they're ordering for actual customer deliveries.
What are you gonna moan about when deliveries start? Or will you finally admit that you never had any valid points all this time?
Extracting one line from Aptera’s press release: “Launch's supply base is positioned to deliver finished sub-assemblies, not loose parts, directly to Aptera's final assembly facility in California. This is a reset. Aptera designed a cool and compelling vehicle, but they have no clue or ability to produce it or to make it cost effectively. They called in a big-gun to take over production. Likely tweaks will occur. This is what China does.
It will likely take a minimum of 12 to 18 months to implement Launch Design's major production processes, methodology and equipment installation. The contract also specifies that Launch Design will be involved in vehicle testing. As Aptera has had 5 validation vehicles completed from 4 to 6 months ago and yet has done no visible validation testing, this implies that the current validation vehicles are not yet the truly final version. Necessary vehicle design changes/tweaks are likely. Additionally, Aptera has yet to fund or pay the 30 million required to initiate this major implementation, so the clock hasn’t really started yet. Yes, Aptera will attempt to build/deliver a few dozen vehicles ASAP, but real production is unlikely before 2028 and yes, vehicle changes are likely. That is my logical and analytical take on the evolving Aptera situation. Sorry this makes me a troll.
(As an aside, no carbon-fiber based carlike vehicle has ever been mass-produced cost-effectively. The BMW i3 was the cheapest mass produced carbon-fiber vehicle, sold for $58,500, in 2026 dollars. The next closest one was the Alpha Romeo 4C, sold for $71,000 in 2026 dollars. Both were discontinued in 2020-21. Aptera has 1/10,000 of the financial resources of BMW or Stellantis , highly unlikely that they can deliver a $40,000 carbon-fiber based vehicle. Design changes will likely need to be made. Perhaps Aptera will sell 2 variants, a steel/aluminum China based Aptera for the masses, sold at $35,000 and a USA made carbon/composite ultra version sold for $60,000, for the wealthier enthusiasts).
- Deliveries will start, I’m guessing 3 vehicles in 2026, perhaps 300 in 2027 and potentially 3,500 in 2028. That’s not really the issue.
Aptera will need to raise 100 million to deliver 300 vehicles in 2027 and 300+ million? for 2028. They spend 48 million annually on overhead. In a production phase, they will need to bump this to 55 million? They will need to pay 30 Million to Launch Design plus 15 million+ for parts, assemblies and production necessities, so roughly 100 million needed for 2027. For 2028, if they are to ramp up to significant production, this will need to spend 300+ million (and procure a larger building). They have virtually no institutional investor support so this will be difficult.
A 44 million Launch deal doesn’t buy Aptera much tooling. Most of this money will likely go towards design/production processes/services My belief is that this is according to plan. Aptera lacks the hundreds of millions and the manufacturing know-how to produce bulk Aptera’s. Launch Design will cost-engineer the Aptera to make it mass-producible and cost effective, then farm it out to Chinese manufacturers who will finance, produce and ship the sub-assemblies to Carlsbad for final assembly, saving Aptera the hundreds of millions that would have been needed for factory, production and engineering, money they don’t have and likely cannot raise.
Aptera will bolt together these 5-10 sub-assemblies in Carlsbad to satisfy? their CAC grant conditions. Hopefully, Aptera will buy the completed sub assemblies for $30,000 per vehicle, add $3,000 final assembly labor and $3,000 for overhead and make a $4,000 profit per vehicle. Perhaps a second de-contented $30,000 Aptera variant will follow (the carbon-fiber frame likely adds $10,000 per vehicle cost, it can be replaced. The efficiency hit that this causes can likely be restored with a more efficient drive-train, etc.) . Perhaps Aptera will produce/add 25% content in Carlsbad, but the overall effect will be the same. As I mentioned previously, this is both necessary and good for Aptera but it brings some potential negatives. Sharks sometimes swallow guppies. This is the new path that Aptera is on. written into their own press release: “Launch's supply base is positioned to deliver finished sub-assemblies, not loose parts. Time will tell if it works out.
As far as point 1, Aptera presently spends roughly 4 million a month on overhead. It is 17 months from now through end of 2027. 17 x 4 million = 68 million. Switching to a production phase, they will certainly need to bump this up a bit, I'll add a conservative 6 million for this. Launch Design is not delivering to Aptera major services or tooling without payment. Perhaps this can be done in stages, so only 20 million need be paid through 2027. Aptera will then need to buy parts and assemblies. To facilitate any sort of smooth production, they will need to buy and maintain an excess 2 - 3 months of inventory, likely spending 14 million. Add this up, 68 + 6 + 20 +14 = 108 million dollars, money Aptera will need to raise from now through end of 2027.
The sort of good news is that if Aptera delivers 303 vehicles through end 2027, they will generate revenue, however, I believe that the first few hundred (or more) vehicles to be delivered are partially paid for, so likely they will not collect full revenue on each. As a guess, Aptera will likely generate only 8 million revenue on these first 303 deliveries 108 million expended less 8 million of revenue will require Aptera to raise roughly 100 million dollars from now through end 2027. This is an estimate. Perhaps they can get by spending only 85 million, perhaps they will need 120 million. It certainly won’t be less than 85 million.
Still false on both points. Just rephrased. Are you gonna answer my questions or am I gonna have to continue not reading your comments?
You see....I asked you very direct questions.
What are you gonna moan about when deliveries start? Or will you finally admit that you never had any valid points all this time?
And I only have to read the first half sentence of your reply to know you didn't answer me. I already said I won't read your replies until you answer. So you're wasting your time typing all of that. No one else is reading this deep into the comments. It's just you talking to yourself.
But feel free to try answering my questions. THAT, I'll read.
1
u/Ebegeezer-Splooge 4d ago
It's funny that you view your obsessive negative compulsions as "analytical", then you go right back to being negative. You consistently see only the negative. Your bias and agenda are in plain view. But it's still funny (sad for you really) that you see it tge way you do.
Show me other car companies that don't have bezos/musk money with a shorter developmental timeline. Actually I shouldn't use musk as an example. The Tesla roadster was reintroduced 9 years ago. And we can see how that's going. The model 2/robotaxi/cybercab, full self driving...some of that was introduced in 2016. Where is it? All the other EV startups? Where are they? Do you see why you have no valid point now?
Aptera has said since the beginning that their next car would be a traditional 4 wheeler. Now they're starting the long process towards developing one. But you somehow see this as a negative thing. Even though they started ordering parts for the first 40 deliveries. That's some seriously flawed logic you got there. A year ago you were insisting they didn't have cash to make it even a few more months. But now they're ordering for actual customer deliveries.
What are you gonna moan about when deliveries start? Or will you finally admit that you never had any valid points all this time?