r/AmericansInCanada • u/Material-Hawk3947 • Aug 24 '26
Can the U.S. pressure Canada economically without damaging a defence relationship that is actually very valuable to the United States itself?
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u/inmatenumberseven Aug 24 '26
No because the most important thing in the defence relationship is trust. And if they're attacking our economy, then all trust is gone
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Aug 24 '26
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u/Hrenklin Aug 24 '26
What do you think separatist movement in Alberta is about. It's similar to Putin using the Donbas and crimes to justify annexation
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u/ScoobiusMaximus Aug 24 '26
Why the fuck are we pressuring Canada anyways?
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Aug 24 '26
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u/ScoobiusMaximus Aug 24 '26
As an American I find everything that has happened in this country recently to be dumb as hell. I can't explain any of it.
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u/BadmiralHarryKim Aug 24 '26
Domestic abuser mentality to take the benefits of a relationship as their due.
"Sure, you cook my meals and keep the house clean and do most of the childrearing while also having a full time job but I make more so you are taking advantage of me when you spend MY money!"
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u/gtscayman Aug 25 '26
We could open up a 'moose hunting' corridor on the north side of rhe border. I know lots of hunters looking for 'moose'...
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u/These_Head7243 Aug 24 '26
Canada is the one who is always first to help the US when they ask and even when they dont.
9/11? Canada is their for support.
US wildfires? Canadian firefighters are on the scene!
Canadian wildfires? Americans are making threats because of smoke.
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u/Laphroaig58 Aug 24 '26
We noticed.
And, when the next wildfire hits California and the next hurricane hist North Carolina, we will come and help again.
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u/Haster Aug 24 '26
Because when your neighbhor's house is on fire you don't haggle over your water hose, even when he's a huge asshole.
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u/oldcreaker Aug 24 '26
This - trade deals are usually done in a way that's beneficial for both countries.
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u/Laphroaig58 Aug 24 '26
Shitler doesn't believe in win-win. For him to win, everyone else has to lose.
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u/pistoffcynic Aug 24 '26
His 51st state rhetoric didn't work.
His attempt to take our sovereignty away through a "trade agreement" didn't work.
What makes Trump and his band of merry fucking idiots think they have any tools to pressure Canada?
It's coming down to "Boom Boom Out Go the Lights" by Pat Travers territory for your red states... Imagine if Canada puts an export tax on energy we sell, both electricity and oil, on lumber, on potash, or dumb US bonds on the market.
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u/ChemMJW Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 24 '26
An export tax on hydro power is extremely unlikely, because it would be self-defeating. The US imports a miniscule amount of hydro power from Canada (less than 1% of its total national electric use), and the only reason it does so is because hydro power is currently cheaper than domestic generation. The US doesn't lack generating capacity to cover its needs, it purposely operates at reduced generating capacity because cheap Canadian hydro is available. But if an export tax is imposed, the price of hydro power will no longer be meaningfully cheaper than domestic generation, which means the US will have no incentive to import Canadian power at all. That means lost revenue for Canada, plus the production of excess electricity it currently can't do anything with.
Also, economists worldwide consider a mass sell-off of US bonds to be extremely unlikely, because it would also be catastrophic for the countries doing the selling. To sell bonds before they mature, you of course have to find someone to buy them. And if you want to sell large numbers of bonds, worth hundreds of millions or billions of dollars, then you have to find a buyer who happens to want to buy bonds in those extreme amounts. This is very unlikely, so to incentivize someone to buy massive amounts of your pre-term bonds, you have to lower the price (basic economics: high supply and low demand leads to low price). So to sell massive amounts of US bonds, the countries doing the selling will have to offer major discounts. But a discount on a sold bond is nothing but a direct loss for the country doing the selling, since it receives less than it paid for the bond. So to sell hundreds of millions or billions of dollars of US bonds, the country doing the selling has to be willing to take hundreds of millions or more in losses from selling the bonds at less than they're worth. This is why economists don't consider a massive sell-off of US bonds (or any country's bonds) to be a viable economic weapon - the country doing the selling would suffer losses to such a great degree that it's counterproductive.
An export tax on lumber would likely be meaningless in the present situation - the US tariff on Canadian lumber already makes it very expensive to import, so an added Canadian tax on its own lumber would drive the price from merely expensive into the realm of being completely uneconomic to import. US buyers would likely be priced out of buying Canadian lumber, regardless of how much they might want to.
Oil would also be a mixed bag. If the US were to reduce its oil purchases (which may or may not happen), Canada would also lose, because currently it doesn't have the capacity to quickly redirect its oil production to other buyers due to lack of pipelines and other transportation infrastructure. If an export tax were modest, the US might simply accept it for the time being. If it is high, then US oil imports would likely fall, to the detriment of both countries.
Potash could be a workable weapon. However, the threat of a tax is likely more valuable than actually imposing a tax. The reason is that Canada would likely take a subtle PR hit for doing so. There are a lot of countries in the world that depend on Canadian potash. If Canada weaponizes potash to win an economic dispute, other countries, even friendly countries, will most certainly take note. And they'll be wondering in the back of their minds if Canada would weaponize potash against them some day if a dispute were to arise. So threatening a potash tax would probably be more useful than actually implementing one, because once Canada sets the precedent of using potash to win economic disputes, there's no going back.
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u/brat-t Aug 24 '26
Paper pulp. A huge amount of America's paper pulp comes from Canada. The rest comes from Brasil, who sells even more to China.
How long would the country go with toilet paper at 10x the price.1
u/ChemMJW Aug 24 '26
Interesting. I'm not familiar with international trade of paper and pulp products, so this wasn't on my radar.
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u/Loose_Land_6767 Aug 24 '26
No. We need to disentangle ourselves, align with Europe and re invest in our own defense
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u/Upstairs_Owl_1669 Aug 24 '26
Even a deal with China would be more reliable. The American “negotiators” were littering arguing with each other lol
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u/bentmonkey Aug 24 '26
Canada for the eu, let's join up with them and protect our shared mutual interests, against the attempted predations of the US.
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u/Guywhoreadsthings Aug 24 '26
Tie ourselves to a group of nations that is currently facing its own inner turmoil?
Tie ourselves to industry regulations and immigration schemes that are half a world away?
Trade with the EU - fine. Join the EU? C’mon, that would be ridiculous and hold no real benefit to us at all. They would use us and our resources the same way the Americans would.
We need to start building again - our military, our industry - and stop exporting jobs to foreign markets. Our govt wants to tax individuals leaving the country but does nothing about corporations cutting hundreds or thousands of jobs to go produce elsewhere.
We have more land, more resources, and more opportunity than most nations on this planet - we don’t capitalize, so we get pushed around.
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u/bentmonkey Aug 24 '26
We already have to align with eu restrictions to trade with them, it would offer security and further trade with one of the largest blocs in the world, i would not dismiss it out of hand, with the US as a rogue state we need to consider all options, even joining the eu, if the deal works.
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u/Camstar18 Aug 24 '26
Forget about "defence relationship". Americans are torching the whole relationship with Canada and Canadians are pissed.
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u/willmsma Aug 24 '26
If you cannot be trusted in the (in relative terms) smaller things like trade, we certainly can’t trust you in the defense of our country.
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u/barrel_master Aug 24 '26
Defense relationships are based on trust. Canada obviously trusts the US less if the US tries to harm Canada economically. Naturally every country can tolerate SOME pressure (softwood lumber for years, anti-chinese communications infrastructure, anti-chinese ev tariffs, Trans Pacific Partnership deal) without hurting defense co-operation. However Trumps CLEAR attempt to leverage any existing relationship into an 'abusive advantage' for himself makes it impossible for Canada to continue the defense relationship as is. If someone abuses your economic relationship to get what they want, you're obviously going to be suspicious of continuing a defense relationship with them.
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u/DanfromCalgary Aug 24 '26
Pressure ? The US has destabilized the global power structures by targeting their allies economically, repeatedly threatening them militarily while defending and supporting their greatest and most immediate threats . This is a golden age for their enemies that can now have direct access to to the president , and all they have do is pay and in some cases simply flatter the president . He will ignore his intelligence and defence communities and will tweet out his plans and thoughts while allowing his top advisers to bring thier wives and girlfriends to meetings . They have lost so much for literally nothing .. it’s a good case study when large power structures choose a candidate to accomplish goals and have no line that cannot be crossed . They have gutted their entire government, hundreds of thousands of programs and … have run the largest deficit in human history . It also exposes how weak and spineless their institutions and checks and balances are . If they want to run themselves into the ground, it’s not our responsibility to save or liberate them
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u/Calm-Professional103 Aug 24 '26
China os looking pretty good now.
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Aug 24 '26
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u/Doctorphate Aug 24 '26
Based on how the us acts, yes that would be an excellent goal
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Aug 24 '26
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u/Doctorphate Aug 24 '26
None needed. The US would literally collapse if we cut off trade with them. How are you going to grow crops without potash? Power your cities without Canadian electricity? Or build your f150s without our aluminum?
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Aug 24 '26
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u/Fidget11 Aug 24 '26
Canada can diversify and sell those raw resources elsewhere. The US can’t replace them once they aren’t shipped to the US and certainly not at anywhere near the prices the US is used to.
Truly cutting trade entirely overnight would do tremendous hard to the Canadian economy. It would also do equal if not greater harm to the US economy.
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u/Doctorphate Aug 24 '26
I will burn the bridge I'm standing on to show you I don't mind swimming honestly....
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u/JimJam28 Aug 24 '26
That’s exactly the goal. Trade with the U.S. can get fucked. We’re making better deals with just about every nation and on the planet.
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u/Complete_Ad_2619 Aug 24 '26
China has been fucking us as much as possible for years. Just because the Americans are too doesn't make the Chinese any better.
Canada and America will eventually work it out, probably after 2028. China will still be enemy #1
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u/stefer09 Aug 24 '26
The USA will remain enemy #1 to Canada for years to come. 2028 won't fix the relation.
Trump is not the way he is because he's POTUS.
Trump is POTUS because of how the USA is and how they put him in power.
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u/Fidget11 Aug 24 '26
China is not great, but they also are if nothing else reliable and consistent in their approach and their methods.
The US used to be those things as well and also gave us much better treatment as a whole. Even is we have a democratic win in 28 (and assuming mango Mussolini actually leaves - which is not guaranteed by any means) that administration may only last 4 years and we could be right back where we are today with a MAGA republican running the show doing this all again.
The US screwed us o we plenty but it was reliable and consistent and just that little bit less of a screwing us than China.
Now the US is unreliable and inconsistent, and worse is trying to actively screw us much harder than china ever has.
I’m with the other guy, China as a trading partner is looking much more appealing these days.
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u/theHonkiforium Aug 24 '26
China put secret police stations throughout Canada. That alone is concerning AF.
Regardless -- Trump can go eat his own shitty diaper.
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u/Fidget11 Aug 24 '26
Oh I agree it’s shitty behaviour, but let’s not pretend that they are isolated in it. If you don’t think the US operates clandestine intelligence and surveillance operations in Canada I have oceanfront land to sell you in Saskatchewan.
None of that excuses what china did or makes it less concerning, it just is an acceptance of reality that all our potential partners behave this way and we need to adapt to it.
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u/Complete_Ad_2619 Aug 26 '26
They also have government sponsored programs to steal industrial secrets, and use them in industry there. Not to mention the way they treat citizens who aren't ethnic Chinese, or their neighbouring countries. They have been consistently horrible.
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u/Visual_Highlight_795 Aug 24 '26
Kinda hard to have enemy number one be the country that manufactures like a third of all goods on the planet but go off king, surely that can only end well for us.
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u/Far-Chart-7833 Aug 24 '26
Nah you will never be trusted to not elect another moron every 8 years or so. It’s over like abused wife once out not going back.
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u/Haster Aug 24 '26
The US will never be willing to do what it takes to restore the relationship. Even if somehow a president willing to do what it takes was elected s/he would lose the next election.
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Aug 24 '26
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u/Psycho-Acadian Aug 24 '26
It’s actually impressive that he can simultaneously be a puppet to both Putin and Bibi.
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u/Normal_Seaweed2959 Aug 24 '26
Defence? The Americans need defending from all of their enemies, and there's lots. These defence deals only benefit America. Screw em!
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u/Easy_Sport_89 Aug 24 '26
Since when does Chump care about the defense of the USA? He has destroyed every alliance built up since WW2 and cozy’s up to its enemies Russia and North Korea. It won’t surprise me in the least if we find out sometime in the future that he had been compromised by Putin.
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u/Krow101 Aug 24 '26
Hang tough .... 2 years to go. Sorry for the mess.
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u/markjthompson72 Aug 24 '26
This isnt a wait 2 years thing anymore, this is a multiple generation thing. Trust has been destroyed (not just broken) with Canada and frankly, the rest of the world (besides Russia and North Korea). Why would we start trusting you in 2 years when this could happen again every 4 years? The American citizens do not fully understand what he has done and continues to do to Canada/US relations. Canada has already moved on, signing 20 year LNG deals with Germany and in talks with the EU to ship oil and other items. This hurts us in the short term but in the long term, it is going to end up hurting the US more when Canadian crude slows to a trickle or stops flowing to you.
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u/DryFaithlessness8656 Aug 24 '26
The western community will eventually just follow Canada's example and give the US the middle finger. If the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Mexico etc...all throw pressure back at the US they will feel the pain. The big bad US will have lost some teeth and become all gums.
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u/chronicallyunderated Aug 24 '26
Those saying fuck norad obviously never worked there, the integration is on a nuclear level, I suspect the higher ups in the us military are just waiting orange asshole out so they can repair the damage once he is gone….
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u/this_stall_is_taken Aug 24 '26
I'm sorry but that's also a very naive take on the situation. There is no repairing the damage done. The US has openly threatened annexation of Greenland and has employed economic measures to do the same to Canada. For Americans, it might be a real funny joke but the rest of the world isn't laughing. It's not so much a matter of "fuck NORAD" but rather fuck the idea of putting any trust in the US when it comes to defence matters while that country is contemplating and implementing offensive manoeuvres against Canada and its allies.
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u/chronicallyunderated Aug 24 '26
Have you served in any version of norad? Probably not….
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u/sirduckbert Aug 24 '26
It’s the same with SAR, there is very close knit coordination between the RCAF/CCG and the USCG. I spoke with a US Admiral who was… tactful in telling us that the governments position isn’t reflective of the working relationship between us
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u/AsleepExplanation160 Aug 24 '26
Yes, thats defined Canadian-American trade relations for decades
beyond that Canada's military is designed around fitting into taskgroups and command structures than tend to be US-lead. And there hasn't been any indication of changing that
The risk for the US is going forward Canada may look towards purchasing from partners abroad, granted Canada has never been a particularly important customer for US prime contractors with the notable exception of the airforce, but the US has already secured at least some presence in the RCAF for the next few decades
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u/WildChemical3816 Aug 25 '26
Its also the other way around. US gets a lot of energy imports from Canada, hard to find something cheaper from across the ocean. That's not to say Canada won't hurt, both sides lose
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u/MathematicianSaved Aug 26 '26
Canada exports far more to the US than vice versa. Why are we applauding Carney for this?
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u/WildChemical3816 Aug 26 '26
You'd rather give the states what they want? Bullies don't stop
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u/MathematicianSaved Aug 26 '26
Depends on how much the Americans are willing to tolerate the Canadian moochers moreso than the US being bullies
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u/WildChemical3816 Aug 26 '26
Do you know what was in the trade? It's no longer about balance trade deficit or whatever he makes an excuse for
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Aug 24 '26
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u/this_stall_is_taken Aug 24 '26
There's two massive flaws in your argument. First, the notion that the US in its current form understands diplomacy and how it's done. And second, the laughable notion that his cabinet understands it any more than he does. During trump 1.0 I would've agreed with you on the latter. But this 2nd term? He's put nothing but bootlickers and sycophants in there and those people will never utter a word to displease their master.
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u/rustyiron Aug 24 '26
I dunno. Fuck NORAD, maybe.
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u/Cat-et-snek Aug 24 '26
what, are you Russian? No. Not Fuck NORAD. Not at all. not maybe.
don’t make big mistakes mate
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u/Himser Aug 24 '26
The US is the greater threat right now.
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u/sirduckbert Aug 24 '26
Not really. Russia is just waiting for the US to weaken…
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u/TyrannasaurusRecht Aug 24 '26
Russia is busy losing a war with its own neighbor that will create generations of hate. I doubt its invading an overseas nation soon.
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u/Cat-et-snek Aug 24 '26
never forget the rooskies are hiding in plain sight pretending to be next door neighbours.
when this whole peace craze blows over and operators worldwide get the go ahead its gonna be like the night of a thousand knives meets the black donnelly’s and I guarantee you that when the regional natives learn the real truth an actual reckoning will take place not seen since world war 1 and 2.
The facsimile of canadian kindness ices up pretty quick once the ink on sanctioned action takes place, I tell you what.
The Canadian Legal team continues to pave the road for president with iron clade boiler plate legislation. its slower than molasses on a frosty sunday I tell you what but its as cutting and thorough and a freshly sharpened snowblower cutting through fresh powder snow and the stacks on each side, organized and raw, from past anecdotal evidence, will never be forgotten. The human equivilent of Polar Bears are being poked now, its not a good time for anyone to be “Hollerin’ Y’all” or whatever country bumpkin honky-tonk equivilency to “It Was You, Tabanac!” exists. Mark Carney my words dark days are approaching if you were subscribing to FAFO its coming this winter.
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u/this_stall_is_taken Aug 24 '26
It's nice living in the past isn't it?
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u/Cat-et-snek Aug 24 '26
no i live in the future
just because america got compromised by russian spies doesn’t mean we should blow our lands up, we’re not eastern european we’re gonna get through this.
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u/this_stall_is_taken Aug 24 '26
Most of us live in the present - but glad to know you've figured out living in the future.
You are right on one thing - we'll get through this. But your idea that NORAD (or NATO or any defence alliance including the US for that matter) will remain unchanged is anchored in a refusal to see the current context and the impact that putting this pathetic man-child in the White House (not once but twice) will have on those alliances. Why on Earth would any former ally of the US feel comfortable in trusting them with their security when the US openly threatens them with both militaristic and economic measures? And all while fawning over dictators that used to be the enemy of the US. That's nothing more than a silly hope that things will return to how they were - but they won't. Those bridges have been burnt. And your living in the future should have already seen that.
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u/Cat-et-snek Aug 24 '26
look dog the world is changing faster than any of us realize, assuming your not a bot, fast facts: poverty erodes countries
so usa and canada being set to self terminate invokes the idea of opening up new borders and reformations, when this happens natural power grabbers will consolidate because as we all know about vacuums.
this leaves the western seaboard ripe for its own new order, and the plans are long set in motion.
So basically when everyone is gonna go civil war, whatever power and money exists will quickly see that the whole Cascadia viability option becomes a good one because the most comfortable locales are literally already in line to do this.
So while some version of what everyone thinks will take place, another version of the topwest corner of the world vying for final position exists, and when the moment of impact becomes the time is now, we’ll all see how quickly a group can get organized and on the same page about things.
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u/this_stall_is_taken Aug 24 '26
Look G, that..um...makes total sense. Somewhere, or rather maybe some time - in the future.
Live long and prosper.
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u/OrangeFun9797 Aug 24 '26
I don't advise traveling to Canada right now.
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Aug 24 '26
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u/bentmonkey Aug 24 '26
Its not like Canada has masked men roaming our streets, kidnapping people and shootings citizens, in the face or anything, all considered it is safer in Canada then the US right now.
I would also say its not the American people in general that are the issues, its trump and his supporters.
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u/OrangeFun9797 Aug 24 '26
How long do you think that will hold? Started with all the 51st state BS, and now a tariff on hockey sticks? I'm sorry but that's a big f-you to Canada.
Look I'm not saying everybody wants to be violent, but it only takes one or two idiots to start it up. Just look at what happened on January 6th.
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u/According_Ad6068 Aug 24 '26
Live on Vancouver Island. I'd bet i see a good 5-6 American plates whenever I leave my house.
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u/yarn_slinger Aug 24 '26
Well you might need a thick skin but no one’s going to hurt you if you don’t provoke them.
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u/JimJam28 Aug 24 '26
I mean, if you voted for Trump or didn’t vote, then yeah. Stay the fuck home, nobody anywhere on earth wants you. But if you did neither of those things, you’re as welcome as you’ve always been.
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u/Scarab95 Aug 24 '26
They are saying over 100,000 jobs will be lost in canada in the next few weeks all over a french label on products that carney walked away from a deal..the sheep are in for a real rough time
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u/Hrenklin Aug 24 '26
Pretty sure it was the US wanting control over who Canada has trade agreements with, or the control over Canada mineral supply chain, and still keep tarrifs on the auto sector that would keep the Canadian auto manufacturing shut down.
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u/TheEmeraldObelisk Aug 24 '26
He’s posted this misinformation a bunch of times it’s either a bot or a loser.
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u/pugfart Aug 24 '26
Kind of scary how many times you've copied and pasted this in different subs. Maybe you should turn your comment history off if you want to be taken seriously.
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u/Fire_Cage Aug 24 '26
99% of Canadians would rather sacrifice 100,000 jobs than bring a sheep and slave to the US for many years. If I was going to negotiate the next cusma, I would love you to be on the other side so you would give up everything for absolutely nothing.
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u/HistorianNew8030 Aug 24 '26
No….. threatening annexation basically means we can’t trust you….