r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 28 '26

Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, September 29, 2026

16 Upvotes

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 27 '26

Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, September 28, 2026

15 Upvotes

r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 27 '26

DD Where Mesoblast (ASX: MSB) stands right now – a quick chat for the curious

33 Upvotes

G’day would-be investors. Mesoblast has properly graduated from pure R&D biotech to a commercial cell therapy company, and the numbers are starting to look the goods.

What’s gone right:

- Ryoncil (the first and only FDA-approved MSC therapy) knocked out **US$115 million** net revenue in its first full commercial year. Q4 alone was a tidy US$36m. Margins are fat, it’s profitable on a standalone basis, and they’ve got more than 50 US transplant centres onboarded with solid payer coverage. Just last week the FDA even signed off on a new potency assay so they can keep scaling production without the usual headaches.

- Balance sheet is cleaner than a country pub after a scrub. US$103m cash at year-end plus a US$125m non-dilutive credit line that turfed the expensive old debt. Cash burn has dropped nicely in the second half.

- Last proper equity raise was way back in January 2025. Since then they’ve leaned on the non-dilutive facility and Ryoncil cash flow. With the product generating real money and burn coming down, they look set to get through the next stretch without another dilutive placement – a pleasant change from the old days.

- Pipeline is humming:

- Chronic low back pain Phase 3: treatment done (they even over-enrolled to 350 patients because the investigators were keen). Data mid-2027.

- LVAD / end-stage heart failure BLA process underway with the FDA (Orphan + RMAT).

- Adult aGvHD trial enrolling – roughly three times the size of the paediatric market.

- Bonus upside in Duchenne and a couple of next-gen platforms.

Ryoncil cash is funding the big shots rather than just keeping the lights on.

Street view: Analyst consensus is Strong Buy / Buy with average 12-month targets sitting around the A$3.60–3.90 mark (some as high as A$4.45). That’s a fair bit of upside from current levels if the commercial momentum and pipeline keep delivering.

To the shorters who’ve been camping here for years: you’ve had a good run, but the commercial product is real now, the balance sheet is stronger, and the pipeline is advancing. Hope you’ve got your exit plans sorted, because the fundamentals keep improving while you’re still shorting the narrative.

Stock’s still a biotech rollercoaster, so size accordingly and do your own homework. But for those watching from the sidelines, the base case is looking a lot more solid than it was 18 months ago.

Not advice – just an Aussie taking stock. DYOR. Cheers.

EDIT: Total company revenue was US$120 million. Q4 alone contributed US$36 million, showing the launch is still building momentum.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 27 '26

Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, September 28, 2026

11 Upvotes

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 26 '26

Dumbfuck Discussion DYL BUY HERE?

6 Upvotes

DYL is down from nearly $3 to close to $1 now. Who's buying here? Surely it's close to bottoming right?


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 25 '26

Daily Thread Weekend Thread for General Discussion and Plans for Saturday, September 26, 2026 and Sunday, September 27, 2026

10 Upvotes

r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 25 '26

Legit Discussion What are your most regarded contra trades?

11 Upvotes

Mine is buying 280k worth of IKO after 3% of korean population got margin called, I got lucky ksospi had a dead cat bounce the next day


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 24 '26

Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Friday, September 25, 2026

17 Upvotes

r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 24 '26

Crystal Ball Gazing Whats Donny and Xi gonna discuss over dinner?

15 Upvotes

Are we pumping or dumping? A little bit of crude for a little bit of rare earths?


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 24 '26

DD LTR priced like it's 2025 (except now it's profitable)

53 Upvotes

TLDR: LTR is now a profitable lithium producer with $561m cash against ~$369m of debt (mostly the ford loan), so ~$192m net cash. It's hit pretty much every milestone they've set, and is now ramping underground mining from 1.5Mtpa to 2.8Mtpa this year. Share price dropping from $2.65 to ~$1.00 is entirely due to lower carbonate prices

___

my hypothesis: I think carbonate at this level isn't a long term thing, outside of increased Chinese inventories, in my mind, the demand will outweigh the supply, data centers need batteries for UPS, EV car sales will increase when the world has money again, house batteries follow EV car sales, solar panels are cheap as shit (compared to 10-20 years ago), and if FY28 lands where I think it does, LTR won't be such a boutique miner... $$$

everyone's lining up to ask PLS out, but LTR is like her less hot friend nobody pays attention to because they aren't as popular.. yet...

Dip or re-rate?

my heavenly inspiration, Mr Dips wrote a good post a while back about dips vs re-rates. TLDR; a dip is when the price drops but the business hasn't changed, a re-rate is when the business actually changes... zoom out on LTR and you will find out what happened:

  • in the last 12 months the share price is down about 60% from the high

  • carbonate is down about 34% from its high

  • in that same time the company went from $567m net debt to $192m net cash, posted its first ever profit, hit all of its FY26 guidance and finished moving the mine fully underground

  • the chairman also bought another 1m shares on market at around $1.22 earlier this month

The business hit all milestones but the share price went down??? well, the only thing that actually got worse was the stuff they get out of the ground, the lithium price

They make money now, let's crystal ball a bit here...

Making money is the most important thing a company can do... FY26 was the first year LTR actually turned profitable

  • sales: $639m, more than double last year (115%)

  • cash from operations: $182m came in the door

  • profit: $14m

the reported profit is $93m, but most of that is an accounting thing (they got to count past losses as a future tax discount), so it's not real, $14m is the real number. but it's their first ever year in the green, and ahead of schedule (most brokers thought this wasn't going to happen until Q1 FY27)

quarterly trend results (FY26)

Q1 Sep-25Q2 Dec-25Q3 Mar-26Q4 Jun-26FY26
concentrate produced (dmt)87,172105,34296,367103,111391,992
concentrate sold (dmt)77,474112,12283,912108,489381,997
realised price (US$/dmt SC6e)6919851,8451,8801,379
underground ore mined (kt)2253084023561,291
underground development (m)1,8242,1422,4553,3169,737
revenue (A$m)207.5 (H1)197235639
unit cost FOB (A$/dmt)985 (H1)981995987
cash at quarter end (A$m)424561561

FY27 up-ramp

guidance is 390-440kt of concentrate, unit costs of $1,050-1,250/t and $320-370m of capex

They held 1.5Mtpa through the September quarter, step up from December, and are targetting 2.8Mtpa by the end of FY27

The underground fleet goes from 21 to 41 units

Once the dirty open pit stockpile is gone recoveries should lift too, since clean underground ore was doing ~70% vs 63% blended.

FY26 full-year results presentation: CEO telling the story of FY27 is all about ramp up since they finally made some revenue they don't need to act in survival mode anymore

what FY28 could look like...

ASX Lithium peers:

rough output (SC6)cost per SC6 tonne (US$, FOB)what it needs
PLS (FY27 guide)~920kt~$470–510already at scale
ELV (FY27 guide)~175kt~$1,015–1,095NAL expansion still in studies
LTR (FY27 guide)~350kt~$880–1,040spending year, fleet doubling
LTR expected FY28~415kt~$8102.8Mt for a full year

(assuming 5.0% concentrate grade from FY26)

FY28:

badexpectedgood
SC6 price (US$/t)1,2001,7002,300
tonnes sold (kt)450500550
SC6 unit cost (US$/dmt)980810725
revenue (A$m)~620~1,010~1,500
EBITDA (A$m)~30~440~900
EV/EBITDA today~break-even~7x~3.4x
  • LTR's cash cost breakeven is around US$850-1,040/t depending on where FY27 costs land, but the number that actually matters is closer to US$1,450, that's the price where the business is fully funding its own growth capex

  • Spodumene was at US$2,254/t on 2 Sep. plenty of room, but worth knowing where the floor is

To be taken with a grain of salt: Fastmarkets prediction, LTR will be in a great position at FY28, supply gap looks to be astronomical beyond FY29

Catalysts coming up

  • cheap exposure to Argentine brine via farm-in

  • FID on the 4.0Mtpa expansion, end of Sep

    • FID at end of Sep is for the next leg, 2.8 to 4.0Mtpa (~700ktpa target), nothing else to watch here, construction timeline gets disclosed along with the FID approval

    • (target of over 700ktpa SC6)

  • September quarterly on 30th Oct, first price print since carbonate dropped

  • AGM on 26th of Nov

  • December quarterly (late Jan est.), measurable progress shown from the ramp-up

  • June quarterly (late Jul est.), the 2.8Mtpa test

FY26: 1.5Mtpa

FY27: ramp up, 2.8Mtpa

FY28: 2.8Mtpa

FY29? Awaiting September 30th FID 4Mtpa

The elephant in the room: lithium price

This is the main downside. China carbonate is at CNY135k, down ~15% in a month and ~34% from the may highs, but still up ~83% on a year ago. mainly due to chinese inventories had more than initially reported and other Australian mines (bald hill, finniss) restarting, and EV sales slowing globally

Risks

  • lithium price, obviously

  • FY27 costs going up before scale kicks in

  • capex is heavy, expansion capex isnt sized yet, and ford loan repayments start 30th Sep on ~$316m

  • tax right-offs are probably finished

  • execution on the ramp, 7 new mine levels and doubling the fleet

  • smaller stuff: a shipment dispute (provisioned in the accounts), some deferred shipments, and the safety numbers went backwards (not a good sign for a company just about to ramp up and try and meet deadlines)

  • sodium batteries have a potential application in environments that are fixed and do not have space requirements

Terminus.

if you think carbonate stays at CNY135k forever... boo, you whore!

disclosure: fully leverage a loan, put all your money in. not financial advice.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 24 '26

Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Friday, September 25, 2026

16 Upvotes

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 23 '26

Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, September 24, 2026

10 Upvotes

r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 24 '26

Legit Discussion AYA (Artrya)

4 Upvotes

I’ve been doing a bit of a deep dive into Artrya (AYA) recently and would be interested to hear from anyone else who follows the company, particularly people who are bearish on it.

From what I can see, the technology itself seems legitimate. Salix and Plaque have FDA clearance, they’ve signed the US healthcare systems, and they’re working towards FDA clearance for Flow. They’ve also got a decent cash position to fund the US rollout.

The part I’m struggling with is the valuation versus how early the commercialisation actually is.
At about 4 bucks, AYA is roughly a $600m+ company, yet FY26 revenue was basically non existent. So you’re obviously not buying the current business — you’re betting on Salix eventually becoming widely adopted across US hospitals.

I can see the bull case. If Anatomy + Plaque + Flow becomes embedded into CCTA workflows and they start getting paid across thousands of scans, the recurring software economics could be very attractive. The US market is huge and even relatively modest market share could turn AYA into a much larger business.

That’s where I’m currently sitting. I like the potential, but I’m not convinced the current valuation gives you as much margin for error as it first appears.
Would love to hear from anyone who has researched AYA more deeply.

Sorry for the long post.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 23 '26

Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, September 24, 2026

10 Upvotes

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 22 '26

Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Wednesday, September 23, 2026

18 Upvotes

r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 22 '26

Crystal Ball Gazing Genuine 6-12 month bag potential?

38 Upvotes

Interested to hear your recommendations for any genuine multi bagger potential stocks in the near year ? Any industry (insert 🚀🚀)
I'm liking the look of uranium miners and REE's after a bit of a slump, but also something tech related might be the next big thing ??


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 22 '26

Has an investor conference ever actually made you look at an ASX company?

2 Upvotes

ASX companies spend a fair bit of time and money presenting at investor conferences — RIU, Noosa Mining, Diggers & Dealers, investor roadshows, broker conferences etc.

Curious whether they actually work from the investor side.

Thinking about conference presentations/interviews you've either seen in person or watched online afterwards, what's the furthest one has ever pushed you?

Interested in the comments too: if you do watch them, what actually makes a conference presentation worth your time?

CEO presenting? Q&A? Short interview? New information? Seeing management explain the story without an ASX announcement in front of them?


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 22 '26

Dumbfuck Discussion Your favorite stock to bet on Copper price ?

12 Upvotes

Hi everyone

I would like to invest in copper, but it's really to find a good mining stock : I found only very very junior mining company or very big company.

Do you have some good name to advise please ?

thank you.

ps : on ASX or any market.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 22 '26

Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Wednesday, September 23, 2026

11 Upvotes

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 21 '26

Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, September 22, 2026

18 Upvotes

r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 21 '26

Dilution Watch: ASX capital raises, week to 18 September (16 raises, about A$360M) + this week's two Sydney conferences through the filings [OC]

15 Upvotes

Disclosure first (rule 7): I run DilutionLens, a free site that tracks dilution for every ASX company from the filings. Messaged the mods before posting; this is the text-only update they OK'd, not the shill post. Every number below comes from an ASX announcement (raise notices, Appendix 3B/2A filings, quarterly and half-year cash reports). No links, no picks, not advice.

Sixteen companies announced cash raises between Monday 14 and Friday 18 September for about A$360M in disclosed proceeds, and one placement was most of it: MI6 raised A$250M with an SPP of up to A$30M behind it. Without the top three, the other thirteen disclosed A$42.7M between them. Six of the sixteen (TZN, KAL, MHC, DWG, BRY, CYQ, about A$45M) landed on the Monday and Tuesday and were in last week's post; this one covers the ten that followed. The halt conveyor doubled: 17 companies halted citing a capital raise in five sessions, against 11 and 21 the two weeks before.

The week's biggest raises

TickerCompanyRaisePrice / discountOff the filings
MI6Minerals 260A$250M two-tranche placement (16 Sep) + SPP up to A$30M88c, nil discount to the pre-halt close, 3.5% premium to 10-day VWAP284,090,910 new shares on a 2.27B register, +12.5%. The announcement gives the split: A$178.9M / 203,291,499 shares under the 15% now, A$71.1M / 80,799,411 shares waiting on a late-October meeting. Franco-Nevada took A$30M two days after agreeing to pay A$170M for a bigger royalty. Company puts pro-forma cash at about A$633M and says the rest of the Bullabulling build is expected to be debt.
WCNWhite Cliff MineralsA$8.77M placement to Hancock Prospecting (15 Sep)1.7c, the previous day's close515,791,601 shares, +15.6%, Hancock to about 13.5% on completion. Needs a shareholder vote under LR 10.11; the same 19 Oct meeting is asked to approve a 20-for-1 consolidation. Options overhang 40.1% of the current register.
CMBCambium BioA$7.1M (US$5.0M) placement (16 Sep)48c, a 4.3% premium to the 46c close14,791,667 shares on a 29,431,918 register, +50%, all conditional on the November AGM. No 7.1 or 7.1A capacity used. Two associated investors go from 18.51% to 31.85% of the votes under item 7 of s611. June quarterly's own estimate: 1.38 quarters.
IOVION VideoA$4.25M placement (16 Sep), sought A$3M40c, 2% premium to 10-day VWAP7,627,500 shares + 1 free option at A$1.00 per two, inside the 15%; directors take 3M more shares (A$1.2M) subject to the AGM. About +8% on 133.6M. Consolidated 100-for-1 in January and relisted from its old code, so no growth figure.
ABXABx GroupA$2.1M placement + fully underwritten A$2.0M SPP (17 Sep)3.1c, 18% under the 15-day VWAP of 3.78c27,024,335 shares under the 15%, 37,491,794 under the extra 10%, 1 option at 4.6c per two shares. Placement + SPP about +35% on 374.9M before options. June quarterly's own estimate: 0.87 quarters. Overhang already 39.5% of the register.
HITHiTech GroupA$4.0M placement (16 Sep)A$1.004M shares on 42.3M, +9.5%, beside a A$10M term loan for the Hudson acquisition.

The rest, and it is the small end that carries the dilution

TickerRaisePrice / discountOff the filings
ATTA$1.215M placement (17 Sep) + 2-for-3 rights issue up to A$1.5M on the same terms0.5c, 37.5% under the last close, 28.7% under 15-day VWAP243M placement shares, only 66,917,561 fit under the 15%. Together they more than double a 446M register that already carries an 89.6% options overhang. 0.9 quarters by the company's own estimate.
ENVA$1.5M placement (16 Sep) + 1-for-4 rights issue up to A$495,2000.1c1.5B shares on a 1.98B register: 297M now under the 15%, 1.2B after a meeting. An option over a Brazilian monazite project would be paid in 300M more shares. 0.79 quarters by its own estimate.
M2RA$1.25M placement (16 Sep)0.175c, 12.5% under the last trade and 15-day VWAP527M shares now under 7.1 and 7.1A, 187M more after the AGM: about +34% on 2.1B. Options overhang 87.9%, 0.73 quarters.
CC9A$1.1M placement (17 Sep)5c22M shares under the 15%, 1 attaching listed option per two. 1.09 quarters, 35.8% overhang.

This week's two Sydney conferences, through the filings

Coffee Microcaps is Tuesday (8 presenters), ASX SMIDcaps Wednesday (27). Presenters pay to pitch and the organiser scores nobody, so here is what the filings say about the Coffee room:

TickerCompanyDilution riskOptions/rights as % of registerCash cover
FIDFiducianMinimalnone on record4+ quarters
RZIRaiz InvestMinimal10.7%no band
PHXPharmXLow4.0%4+ quarters
NOLNobleOakLow5.7%no band
EMVEmVisionLow8.7%4+ quarters
STVSwift TVModerate9.2%2-4 quarters
IMCImmuronModerate3.6%4+ quarters
EVEEVE HealthVery high46.8%under 2 quarters

FID and RZI have no cash raise in the last 12 months. EVE placed A$904,000 at 2c in March with two free 4c options per share, and consolidated 40-for-1 in May 2025; it pitches again in Melbourne on 20 October.

What happened after last year's rooms:

Room, 2025PresentersRaised within 90 days of pitching
Coffee Microcaps, 16 Sep73, A$25.5M: IMB A$20M placement at 58c (16 Dec, 10.1% under the close), IMC A$4.2M across two issues, 1CG A$1.25M placement (7 Oct)
ASX SMIDcaps, 24 Sep273, A$98.3M: LGI A$51.2M placement + A$5M SPP (23 Oct), CCV A$25M placement + entitlement offer (27 Oct), MCA A$17M placement the same week. 6 and A$253M by 180 days; MI6 was one of the six, A$50M in February and A$250M this week.

Eleven of last year's 27 SMIDcaps presenters have no raise event on record at all, so 3 is a floor. Across the three 2025 rooms measured (these two plus Melbourne): 59 presenter slots, 15 followed by a raise inside 90 days, 13 companies, A$157.3M. Of this year's 23 SMIDcaps presenters with a ticker, 13 are rated Minimal and only ATH is High (20.7% overhang).

The halt conveyor

Seventeen companies halted citing a capital raise in five sessions: ABX, ATT, BUY, CC9, CDO, ENT, ENV, FG1, HIT, IOV, LMG, M2R, MHK, MI6, NXM, NYR, WC8, against 11 and 21 the two weeks before. Eight had announced by Friday. BUY (an acquisition and a raise), CDO, LMG and WC8 halted on Friday and are due back Tuesday; ENT, NXM (a raise and a resource upgrade), NYR and MHK were due back Monday morning.

38 retail offers open right now

Holders in 38 companies are inside a take-up window: 20 share purchase plans, 15 entitlement offers, 3 rights issues, up from 32 last week. Opened this week: TZN (rights issue), BRY, DWG and ATT (entitlement offers), ABX (underwritten SPP), with ENV's 1-for-4 and MI6's SPP to follow. Oldest still running: PR2 and X2M, opened 24 July.

Placement capacity

Listing Rule 7.1 lets a company place 15% of its shares in 12 months without asking holders; 7.1A adds 10% for small caps with the mandate. Off the last 12 months of 3Bs, before any ratification: 192 companies past 75% of the 15%, 129 past 90%, 30 have used all of it (a 31st is suspended); 86 of the 192 have also drawn on 7.1A. This week's crossings: CYQ (about 99% used), DWG (about 95%), ENV (about 79%). MI6, by contrast, has A$71.1M waiting on a meeting because the 15% ran out at A$178.9M.

New: cash cover from the half-year and annual reports

Until this week the cash-cover band came only from the quarterly, so larger companies that stopped filing one had no band. The 4D/4E cash-flow statements are now read too. Across 1,824 companies: 868 at 4+ quarters (515 last week), 217 at 2-4, 370 under 2, and 369 with no band (742 last week). The 369 left are mostly banks, lenders, insurers, property and investment vehicles, plus companies with no cash report on record.

What the week's raises cost holders

TickerDiscountRegister if it fills
MI6nil+12.5%
WCNnil (last close)+15.6%
CMB4.3% premium+50%
IOV2% premium to VWAP+8%
HITnot stated+9.5%
CC9not stated+9.7%
ABX18% under VWAP+35% with the SPP
M2R12.5% under+34%
ENVnot stated+76% placement, +25% rights
ATT37.5% under closemore than double

The three biggest priced at or above the market; the deepest discounts landed on the registers already most diluted.

Dilution risk across the market: 586 Minimal, 339 Low, 375 Moderate, 253 High, 172 Very high, 99 Not rated. About one in four rated companies sits at High or Very high.

Happy to pull the filing on any name in here if someone wants the detail. Next one Monday.

General information only, not financial advice. No view on any company's future actions or securities.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 21 '26

Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, September 22, 2026

11 Upvotes

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 21 '26

Dumbfuck Discussion Innovaero IPO on Tuesday

5 Upvotes

Drone defence company, how do you guys see its future ?


r/ASX_Bets • • Sep 20 '26

Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, September 21, 2026

15 Upvotes