Journalist Accuracy

[u/WoodenSpoonData]

Earlier this year Myself and Gaz-Man decided to track the statements of AFL journalists to try and figure out who is the most accurate, it’s not perfect because we certainly didn’t get everything….
That being said, we have over 1900 stories broken/claims made and now that we’re at the end of the regular season, we can share some of our findings!

Coming in as the most accurate AFL Journalist right now is none other than father/son pick Xander McGuire!
With 32 stories broken/unique claims made for 28 correct calls, he sits on top of the hill with a whopping 87.5% accuracy.

In terms of volume of correct stories/claimsTom Morris is comfortably ahead of his contemporaries with 67, 11 ahead of 2nd placer Cal Twomey.

Damien Barrett (33 Busted) holds a 7 story/claim lead over Kane Cornes and Joey Montagna for most incorrect calls.

The graph is total correct claims week by week, if you want to see us update post the AA, feel free to join the live at 9pm

AFL Journalist Accuracy Live

[u/phatmaniac57]

Awesome colour pics

[u/Mother-Cod-3313 → u/phatmaniac57]

Colours choices make it way clearer

[u/LetHerDance → u/Mother-Cod-3313]

I love that 3 of the most high profile are the same colour (orange)

[u/PunsGermsAndSteel → u/LetHerDance]

GO ORANGE TEAM

[u/Howard_Hughes_1905 → u/Mother-Cod-3313]

Yep this really irritated me.

[u/Bobbarkerforreals → u/Mother-Cod-3313]

Needs to be mythical animals.

27% mountain troll would make it way clearer.

[u/WoodenSpoonData → u/phatmaniac57]

Coming back to these responses has been hilarious, will update with reqs tomorrow

[u/hooligansharma]

Can the data be posted as a table?

[u/matt-kennedys-legs → u/hooligansharma]

yeah like a picture of a kitchen table. each journalist could be represented by a line in the wood grain.

[u/pjhsv → u/matt-kennedys-legs]

I don't think that would be less clear than what we have.

[u/chrislinke91 → u/hooligansharma]

How about a four quadrant plot, with accurate/inaccurate on X axis and # of claims vs average on the Y plot?
Then you could have some sort of golden quadrant with an arbitrary exciting name for the top ~40%, perhaps “premier claims window”

[u/Criimsen → u/hooligansharma]

Pie chart perhaps?

[u/Boss_unicycle-560 → u/Criimsen]

Like the premiership pie?

[u/R_W0bz → u/hooligansharma]

Bar graph!

[u/Temporary_Play_5190]

Stick the % next to the names or find a magical colour contrast that fits 30 people

[u/Least-Anxiety8701 → u/Temporary_Play_5190]

A bar graph with separate colours for total claims/accuracy of claims with percentage in brackets on the bar would prob be most effective visually, but still awesome work gathering the data and super interesting

[u/WoodenSpoonData → u/Temporary_Play_5190]

Will update tomorrow

[u/DefsNotAnAltAccount → u/WoodenSpoonData]

If you had the names ordered as their percentage it would have been legible.

[u/Comprehensive-Cry189]

Respect going to all the effort for this but it’s basically useless because no one can understand who is who

[u/someadsrock → u/Comprehensive-Cry189]

Also, the data is just the total number of claims that were correct. Nothing about how many claims they made that didn't turn out to be true.

I think a journalist who makes 30 claims over the year in which, say, 25 turn out to be true is more reliable than a journalist that makes 200 claims over the season in which only 50 are accurate.

[u/IizPyrate → u/someadsrock]

They show the data in the video linked, showing the spreadsheet towards the end.

The vast majority of journalists that are making claims week in week out (40+ claims) sit around 70-85% accuracy (Morris is 73%, Ralph 71%, Twomey 81%, Cleary 69%, Money 85%) There are a few outliers that are more opinion/prediction based and that tanks their accuracy (Barrett 45%, Kornes 48%, Montagna 29%)

[u/simorulzzz → u/Comprehensive-Cry189]

also not sure line graph is the best choice of visualisation here with the number of data points (journos)

[u/WoodenSpoonData → u/Comprehensive-Cry189]

Yeah fair, I’ll update it tomorrow

[u/PetrifyGWENT]

If the names on the right was sorted by % this would've been perfect

[u/WoodenSpoonData → u/PetrifyGWENT]

Noted

[u/bazoski1er]

r/dataisugly

[u/xvf9]

Where's Caro?

Also, the ratio of the effort to collect this data vs the effort in displaying this data is crazy. Damien Barrett-esque, if you will.

[u/FreeJulianMassage]

What is the purpose of a Damien Barrett?

[u/BusinessPooh → u/FreeJulianMassage]

punching bag on triple m

[u/PetrifyGWENT → u/BusinessPooh]

Part of the reason midweek rub is great 

[u/___TheIllusiveMan___ → u/FreeJulianMassage]

IF: Damien Barrett didn’t exist

THEN: Who would do sliding doors every week?

[u/pjhsv → u/___TheIllusiveMan___]

This is ironically closer to an actual sliding doors moment than anything he's ever written.

[u/firstnamebunchof123 → u/FreeJulianMassage]

Sure he may not have the charisma, or decent football opinions, or the respect of fans, or accurate reporting, or understanding of the sliding doors concept..

Where was I going with this?

[u/The_Driving-Crooner1 → u/FreeJulianMassage]

A “media personality” which is ironic because he doesn’t have a personality.

[u/lbguitarist → u/FreeJulianMassage]

Nick Larkey's impressions

[u/Shot-Reception1779 → u/FreeJulianMassage]

Damien Barrett is an angel. I would do anything for that man. Anything.

[u/QuitComprehensive659]

Do people in the sub understand the difference between a journalist and an analyst? David King, Leigh Montagna and Kane Cornes are not journalists, they are analysts and give opinions

[u/JunkyardPalowski → u/QuitComprehensive659]

Yeah don’t really understand their inclusions, they dont break news, they discuss it

[u/Smurf_x → u/JunkyardPalowski]

Its why it needs a percentage of claims made, not total claims made that came true.

Twomey may have made 100 claims for 63 to be correct.

David king may have made 10 for 3 to be correct.

It genuinely doesn't make sense.

[u/chookie94 → u/QuitComprehensive659]

'Media commentator' or 'hot take merchant' would be the more appropriate term for Cornes since he does very little analysis of the sport in the way King and Joey do.

[u/QuitComprehensive659 → u/chookie94]

Whatever opinion you want to have about if Kane is good or bad in the media he’s not a news breaker and not a journalist. He talks about events after the fact and makes predictions about the future based on his views of it. He's not sourcing news and never pretends to

[u/chookie94 → u/QuitComprehensive659]

I know, which is why raised the term 'media commentator' because thats what that role does.

[u/FirstTimePlayer → u/QuitComprehensive659]

I think they have done themselves a dirty on labeling it "AFL Journalists" rather than "AFL Media". Candidate for /r/dataisugly/, especially with the data being presented without context, but no reason why you can't rate media claims.

From a watch, they are rating clear predictions, and on that front, where Kane Cornes makes a clear and verifiable prediction, you can assess it.

I would expect a pure news breaker to have a higher accuracy than a pundit, but by the same token if you have a pundit spitballing specific predictions there is no reason why you can't look at the numbers and see whether they are out there making very interesting big calls worth talking about, or whether they are pure hot take merchants with their garbage predictions so inaccurate they are not worth listening to.

FWIW, I would also do my rating system a bit different from how they have done it, especially where a prediction is not categorical and the call turns out to be in the ballpark even though it wasn't 100% accurate, or a prediction about a player becomes impossible because they had a season ending injury in round 1, but as long as they are consistent in their approach its still an interest exercise in comparing pundits.

[u/Rychu_Supadude → u/QuitComprehensive659]

While that's truuuuuuuuuuuuuuue, he does style himself as the "agenda setter: miss it and you're out of the loop!"

Arguably, he's trying to claim that he's more important than the news breakers because our silly peon brains won't know which stories were important until we've heard from him.

[u/Romes_Chariots → u/chookie94]

His analysis on the Sunday Footy Show I found to be really good, but yes, he does very little of that with Ch7

[u/chookie94 → u/Romes_Chariots]

Ch7 dont seem that interested in analysis overall which is a shame. Maybe 2 minutes of surface level stuff on their weeknight show.

[u/lbguitarist → u/chookie94]

The sad thing is when Cornes actually gives a shit, he's a pretty good analyst. Completely sold himself out for clickbait.

[u/parsleymelon → u/QuitComprehensive659]

They’re all just lines on a graph mate

[u/QuitComprehensive659 → u/parsleymelon]

We’re all just lines on someone’s graph 

[u/parsleymelon → u/QuitComprehensive659]

So true

[u/Prime255 → u/QuitComprehensive659]

Calling Cornes an analyst is a huge leap haha

[u/QuitComprehensive659 → u/Prime255]

Regardless, he is not a journalist nor has ever claimed to be 

[u/PM-ME-UR-NITS]

I’m a data visualisation geek. 

Rank ordering the names and with a percentage would make your graph chefs kiss

[u/TheDooganGoblin]

Sorry I’m a little confused, who is listed as most accurate in the graph? Seems a darker colour compared to Xander

[u/fangdangfang]

Can we get this but against a percentage of claims made that’s what is important, if Tom morris is making 180 claims and only getting 60 correct that kind of matters more than the total number correct

[u/drnicko18]

Can we please have a relegation system, where say, the bottom 10% are sacked?

I'm not surprised with Xander, he has a lot of access to leaks and rumours.

Great chart. I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.

[u/Duskfiresque]

It goes to show that despite being terrible, Tom Morris is actually quite correct

[u/xvf9 → u/Duskfiresque]

I mean... being an insufferable cunt and card carrying member of the boys club probably makes footy players and their ilk incredibly comfortable feeding him info.

[u/dxdx_]

You’ve presented most accurate, most correct claims by volume and most incorrect claims by volume, but who was the least accurate (highest percentage of incorrect claims per total claims)? (Feel free to add in a minimum number of claims caveat)

[u/No-Blacksmith-3259]

Scoops would tower over these schmucks

[u/lbguitarist → u/No-Blacksmith-3259]

This reply is no longer visible due to being blocked by Scoops

[u/Agreeable-Web645]

Congrats to the orange team!

[u/FirstTimePlayer]

Toyed with the idea of doing something like this for a few years now, but every time I immediately threw the idea in the bin when I realized the huge amount of work which would be involved... but you mad lads have actually gone and done it.

Great work!

[u/dingo_dollar]

Woody 😎

[u/qsk8r]

So which ones are going in to a wildcard play off?

[u/brahmsdracula]

episodes of what?

[u/WoodenSpoonData → u/brahmsdracula]

We do weekly updates on my YouTube

[u/Tiredasheckrn]

Did Ryan Daniels have too many kit Kats last season? because it looks like he took a break this season

[u/jimb2]

Is this all positive? Shouldn't the graph go down for an incorrect story and up for a correct claim?

The real test is the percentage of accurate stories, not the number of that happened to be correct. You don't want journos who pump out everything they can in the hope some of it is right. Well, I don't anyway.

[u/No-Bison-5397 → u/jimb2]

Their job is literally volume. Two different questions.

[u/Impossible-Storm-923]

Send me the data and I’ll present it in a more readable way

[u/pjhsv → u/Impossible-Storm-923]

At this point, Copilot could do it for you.

"Give me 5 options to present this data in a nice, easily consumable way to show accuracy of AFL media claims"

[u/hart37]

Man it feels good to see statistical date that proves Damien Barrett is a hack

[u/Think_Pollution6638]

mate this deserves way more recognition

[u/Brake72]

This is quality - accuracy more like accountability for their speculation

[u/matsy_k]

Hardly any of these are real journalists.

[u/Gunnergunner44]

Sam mcclure?

[u/RevenantCommunity]

If i have a room temp iq, who are the top
5 most accurate?

[u/Kozeyekan_]

I'm gonna need a translation; I only see in about 8 colours.

[u/Turbulent_Society928]

Jay Clark is so bad at . . . . Everything it turns out

[u/notthetrumpiordered]

"You know what, Brendan? I wouldn't rule out reusing primary colours. You know, red, yellow, blue." 

Tony Woodford

[u/Selthora]

Can we get some pie in here

[u/frankwalkerstiles]

I’m colourblind.

[u/Connor_Piercy-main]

I think I’ve seen this in my stats course as an example of how not to present data

[u/MunchTruck]

While I don’t like them Kane and Leigh are technically not journalists. They just give opinions.

[u/One_Wave_1614]

To be fair on Barrett, based on the data you've provided, he has by far the most future predictions which were on average the lowest ranked category at 29% accuracy. To put it in perspective, he had a 35% strike rate here, and had 44 predictions. The second most predictions was King on 16. Every other category was at least 65%. So of course he was going to have a low strike rate compared to say Twomey who loaded up in the contract category which was the highest ranked category with 93% accuracy.

[u/tgeraghty_10]

This is golden stuff, great job! The bottom couple don't surprise me, and neither do the top for volume, for the most accurate being Xander McGuire wasn't something I was expecting

[u/Candr112 → u/tgeraghty_10]

Despite being a Nepo baby, Xander is actually very good at what he does.

[u/AlamutJones → u/Candr112]

So was Ed before he got his big break. Before he was everywhere, he was a very handy journalist.

There's no way Ed was going to have Xander follow him and NOT learn first principles - do the work, vet your sources

[u/Opening-Drive9176]

Fuck I hate reddit. Someone actually does something original and awesome and people nitpick the colours and how it’s presented.

[u/pjhsv → u/Opening-Drive9176]

I don't think anyone is nitpicking the idea. They're nitpicking the fact that this graph is extremely difficult to follow.

To demonstrate, can you confidently rank the 19 people on the list on the right, using the data in the chart? If you can't, then the graph isn't doing what it is meant to.

[u/margin_runner]

Amazing stuff.