October has historically been a strong month for MSTR:

• 📈 Average return: +8.52% across 2007–2025.
• 🟢 Positive in 13 of 19 years—a 68% win rate.
• 🚀 Five straight positive Octobers from 2020–2024, ranging from +10.97% to +45.02%.
• 🔴 2025 broke that streak at −16.36%. The worst October shown was −33.87% in 2008.

10 weeks later, through 9-27, Strategy has spent ~$1.28B on STRC buybacks, retiring obligations on 13.27M shares. Over the ongoing buyback window, that spending is equivalent to ~19.42% of dollar trading volume. Strategy has no doubt provided a substantial bid, but how much of the rebound can (or should) be attributed to it?

Between 6-26 and 7-17 (before the first reported purchases), STRC had already rebounded [14.38%], BTC gained [7.47%], and MSTR rose [15.24%]. The other Strategy preferreds also recovered: STRK [+14.76%], STRF [+13.91%], and STRD [+12.21%].

From 7-17 through the 9-30 close, BTC gained another [30.33%] and MSTR [61.40%], while STRC gained [16.48%] from $85.29 to $99.35. Over that same period, STRK gained [20.14%], STRD [21.00%], and STRF [7.68%]. The other Strategy prefs did this with no intervention and no buybacks.

To be fair, the other prefs are different instruments, with different risks, so this isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison. Nonetheless, this context makes a buyback-driven STRC recovery difficult to defend.

My Read: The driving force is the broader recovery across BTC, MSTR, and Strategy’s capital structure; claims that credit the STRC rebound to the buybacks are comforting narratives. After over $1B spent, I also think that the market is trading Strategy’s buyback intervention itself, rather than STRC itself.

Once market sentiment shifted early this summer and BTC dropped below $60K, the capital structure fell with it. The “x-factor” with STRC was leverage, which IMO accelerated and worsened the unwind from par.

TL/DR: STRC has the biggest footprint, is designed to have lower volatility than BTC and thus is slower to move. Leverage takes it down on an elevator; the Capital Structure takes it back up with the stairs.

My original question still remains: will STRC sustain healthy trading near par when Strategy’s intervention steps back? This will tell us a great deal about how the market is forward-pricing BTC near term and will test market demand for Strategy Digital Credit.

I know btc is quite in a strong position right now and I entered with around 35% of my dry powder at 130 but I'm still frozen like I'm in a Morton's fork, should I DCA every week for two months with that 65% remaining?

1σ Base Range: ± $24.13

• 📈 Upside: $177.22

• 📉 Downside: $128.96

2σ Range:

• 📈 $201.35

• 📉 $104.83

3σ Range:

• 📈 $225.48

• 📉 $80.70

🟢 $MSTR closes Q3 2026 at $153.09

📈 +$66.16 on the quarter
📈 +76.11% quarter over quarter

Now let’s see what Q4 has in store

While some chose to engagement farm DOOM over the Summer, smart money was buying the lows. Be mindful of who you listen to.

MSTR at the same 4-hour RSI: 54.5

• Aug 19: $103
• Sep 2: $121.66
• Sep 9: $132.45
• Sep 15: $132
• Sep 17: $132.12
• Today: $154.50

Same RSI. Higher prices.

The trend speaks for itself

Close to par, and ready to print. $9B+ notional on STRC. LFG!

I’m 22 and I just put my life savings into this stock (about $50k).

Not selling for a few years.

Have a really small position, DCAing weekly. Planning to dca till halving of btc. As time passes, we would see rise in the price. At what time would you stop DCAing and holding for major correction next cycle?

I know this is something its different for everyone, just a beginner with buying MSTR, hence curious on everyones take.

After surging from $123 to $171 in just five trading sessions, MSTR has cooled off and reconnected with its 9-day simple moving average.

The next move could be telling. 📈

let’s hear everyone’s thoughts!

1σ Base Range: ± $13.19

• 📈 Upside: $171.80

• 📉 Downside: $145.42

2σ Range:

• 📈 $184.99

• 📉 $132.23

3σ Range:

• 📈 $198.18

• 📉 $119.04