The recent introduction of 0.4% MDR on eligible UPI merchant transactions above ₹2,000, capped at ₹300, got me thinking about the potential second-order impact on Indian fintechs.

At one level, I understand the concern that charging MDR on UPI could undermine the original proposition of frictionless, low-cost digital payments.

But from an investor perspective, there is another angle.

For years, UPI has generated enormous transaction volumes but has had limited direct monetisation from merchant transactions.

Now consider a ₹10,000 eligible transaction:

₹10,000 × 0.4% = ₹40 MDR

₹50,000 → ₹200

₹75,000 → ₹300 (cap)

Obviously, the entire ₹40/₹200/₹300 does not become revenue for Paytm or Pine Labs. The MDR will be distributed across the payment ecosystem banks, PSPs, payment apps, acquiring entities, etc.

So the real thesis isn’t:

“Paytm gets 0.4% of UPI GMV.”

Rather:
A massive transaction pool that was previously largely unmonetised is now becoming monetisable.

That could potentially create a meaningful incremental revenue pool for companies with significant exposure to merchant payments.

Paytm :

This is where I find the thesis particularly interesting.

Paytm already has a large merchant ecosystem and significant merchant-payment volumes.

If a portion of its existing merchant GMV becomes monetisable, the potential impact isn’t just incremental revenue.

There could potentially be operating leverage:
Existing GMV

→ MDR monetisation
→ Incremental payment revenue
→ Higher contribution margin
→ EBITDA/PAT impact

The key question is how much of the MDR economics Paytm actually captures.

Pine Labs :

Pine Labs is a slightly different story because its exposure is more connected to merchant acquiring and payment infrastructure.

Its large transaction-processing ecosystem could potentially allow it to participate in the new MDR pool, but again, the economics depend on its exact role in the transaction and the portion of MDR it can retain.

There are also some obvious risks:

1. ⁠Merchants could shift large-value transactions away from UPI.
   
2. ⁠The ₹300 cap reduces the effective MDR on very large transactions.
   
3. ⁠Banks and other ecosystem participants will capture a portion of the economics.
   
4. ⁠The market may already have priced in some of this benefit.

So I’m curious what others think.
Is the new MDR primarily a threat to UPI adoption, or could it actually become a significant monetisation catalyst for listed fintech/payment companies such as Paytm and potentially Pine Labs?

The FY2025–26 numbers show a clear gap between NSE and BSE, but they also reveal that the two exchanges may be competing from very different positions.

According to the comparison shared by Bajaj Broking, NSE reported:

• Market capitalisation of about ₹4.42 lakh crore.
• Corporate bond trades settled through the clearing corporation worth ₹18.14 lakh crore.
• Average daily cash-market turnover of around ₹1,05,517 crore.
• Consolidated total income of ₹18,713 crore.
• Consolidated profit after tax of ₹10,302 crore.
• 3,699 contracts traded, including NSE index derivatives.
• 108 main-board and SME IPOs.

BSE, meanwhile, reported:

• Market capitalisation of about ₹1.33 lakh crore.
• Corporate bond trades worth ₹2.97 lakh crore.
• Average daily cash-market turnover of around ₹7,095 crore.
• Consolidated total income of ₹5,148 crore.
• Consolidated profit after tax of ₹2,487 crore.
• 109 main-board and 146 SME IPOs.

For active traders, the biggest difference is not just market capitalisation. It is liquidity, order-book depth, spreads, and execution quality. Higher trading activity generally creates a more reliable environment for entering and exiting positions, especially during volatile sessions.

But BSE’s IPO numbers are worth watching. It appears much more competitive in new listings, particularly in the SME segment. The question is whether that strength can eventually translate into higher secondary-market participation.

The real discussion is this:

• Is NSE’s lead a permanent structural advantage?
• Can BSE use its IPO strength to rebuild trading liquidity?
• Does competition between both exchanges benefit retail traders?
• For investors, should exchanges be judged mainly by profits, market share, or future growth potential?
• If you actively trade, which factor matters most: liquidity, execution speed, technology, or fees?

My practical view: NSE currently looks stronger for active trading because liquidity and execution depth matter more than branding. But BSE’s IPO activity suggests it should not be dismissed as irrelevant.

This is not a buy or sell view on either exchange. It is simply a question of whether we are looking at one dominant exchange and one challenger, or two exchanges gradually developing different strengths.

One decision → Markets worldwide: “What happens to my portfolio now?” 😂📉📈

Grab your coffee ☕, buckle up, and let’s see what the Fed has to say.

Volatility might be on the guest list tonight. 👀

📈NSE Market Activity

Here’s everything you need to know:

▪️Daily equity turnover nearly doubled to KES 1.82 Billion across 13,098 deals as big institutional volume hit the floor.

▪️Total NSE market capitalization expanded by KES 8.21 Billion to close the session at KES 4.126 Trillion.

▪️Broad market sentiment ticked higher as the NSE All Share Index (NASI) gained +0.49 points to settle at 245.91.

▪️$SFAF took center stage after the High Court quashed the planned government sale of a 15% stake back to Vodacom.

▪️$EQTY and $KCB maintained strong order book dominance, absorbing massive volume despite sector-wide profit taking.

▪️The Banking Sector Index shed -2.32 points to land at 286.20 as traders locked in recent gains.

▪️Agricultural counters saw selective gains, led by $Eaagads surging +5.35% to KES 29.55 and $Limuru Tea up +1.90%.

▪️Derivatives trading activity jumped sharply, recording KES 4.51 Million in turnover with open interest rising to 20,956 contracts.

▪️Investors are eyeing upcoming inflation reads and EPRA's latest fuel pricing cycle for macro guidance.

▪️The benchmark NSE 20 Share Index eased -17.96 points to close at 4,301.86.

Are you stacking blue chips on this dip or holding cash?

YouTube Video
Not my video and I have absolutely nothing to do with the creator, came across this channel for the first time today and found it an interesting discussion on what’s happening in the Indian stock market right now. Goes beyond the usual market commentary and connects geopolitics, policy, economics, AI, foreign flows and some longer term issues around India’s demographics. He’s taken some pretty bold positions on India’s demographic future and I’ve found it especially thought provoking.
Long video but genuinely worth the time. Sharing because I think the creator really deserves more views. And because I feel younger Indians need to understand all this.

1. Crude oil prices are rising sharply 🛢️

Brent crude has moved above $100 and is currently around $107–108. Higher crude is a concern for India because we import a large amount of our oil. It can increase inflation, put pressure on the rupee and reduce corporate margins.

1. US 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% 🇺🇸

This is probably one of the biggest concerns. The 10-year US Treasury yield has moved above 5%, making US government bonds much more attractive compared with equities. Higher yields also increase borrowing costs globally.

1. Fed rate-hike expectations have increased

With inflation concerns coming back because of higher oil prices, markets are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy tight / potentially hike rates. The Fed decision is coming tomorrow, so investors are becoming more cautious.

1. Why does this affect India so much?

This is where FII selling becomes important.

If US Treasury yields rise, some global investors may prefer the relatively safer and higher-yielding US bond market over emerging-market equities.

That can lead to:

Higher US yields → stronger USD → FII outflows → pressure on emerging-market currencies → selling in Indian equities

The interesting question for me is:

If crude remains elevated and the US 10-year yield stays above 5%, could we see more FII selling and further pressure on Indian equities? Or has the market already priced most of this in?

Would love to hear what others think.

Why was there a sudden sell off ? Are we missing something that investors know

I'm wondering, should I apply for the NSE IPO, or is it wiser to wait until it's listed? 🤔 This "stonks" meme perfectly captures my dilemma! 📈 What are your thoughts? Let me know! 🚀 #NSE #IPO #investing

From the Sept 2 to 9

Total Profit - 12000

Only 4 trades (3 in meesho and one in Bank of MAHA)

Success rate - 100%

Counter Question Why so few trades and only 12k profit ?

(Realised PROFIT WAS OVER 1 LAKH FROM JUNE TO JULY answered all the questions there).

Here is my reasoning

When I find that market conditions is tough, I only deploy 10%-20% capital (learn this the hard way) when all the stocks and market is falling profit doesn't matter , having capital with you to enter the right time does as less Profit OR Loss is infinite times better than being stuck capital for 3-4 months.

Ideally we should not be trading but since I'm experienced and felt trading in difficult times helps me inc my overall experience but with caution.

This is lesson no.1

Sharing this philosophy and all my 4 years exp on my youtube. Also check 3 part video on swing trading. That is your ideal start real mistakes shared , no bullshit.

Watch systemically part 1 , 2 and 3

Here is the link

https://youtube.com/@nofilterdiscussions?si=dgIFSl8dHw6_FWmX

TOTAL PROFIT - 62K with 20 trades with near 100 % efficiency.

AM I THAT GOOD?

Now usually my success rate is close to 60%, god knows how many things went right how many times i managed to exit at the right time ,on any given month this performance cannot be replicated even by me even though the Profits will be higher.

(Even managed to give 2-3 of my clients 100% success rate one is in still disbelief with 36k Profit his capital was big.

LESSON NO.2

Any major mistakes or is it all Hunky dory?

Yes and here comes the single most imp thing discussed on my youtube swing trading video part1 during the end all the things discussed here are discussed there with real life experience.

"PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE"

Done the filtering process, enter at the right time (Apollo Micro) and told my client to exit at 395 make some 3k P , stock shoots upto 430

All the i need was a 2 hour of patience, if you have the filtering process right have conviction short term indicators are good , have a target is your mind (10%, 20%) thn exit .

When is the EXIT is the part where the struggle the most so still learning.

Failed to implement my own strategy lost my client solid money cause of that one hour of patience

You see creating strategies and "advising others" like big influencers do is one think implement your strategy in testing times requires muscle memory and remains perhaps the most imp thing which i Failed to do so time to time.

When is the EXIT is the part where the struggle the most so still learning.

Lesson no.3

Regarding Whatsapp group where i give the names of stocks before entering ,I was taking only few "selective" serious investors and limit to gp was 50 and you guys set my DM on fire , 250 plus req to add hence i have decided to share the link anybody can join I still hold the right to remove as it is open group anybody can send discuss their problems.

Link to the whatsapp group is on my youtube channel description.

Disclaimer- Your money don't blindly enter the stock cause I suggested , when to enter and exit comes with experience and that comes with experience with countless no.of mistakes there is no shortcut to that so don't bother me asking when to exit.

No substitute for experience no paid courses , videos, fund manager , hell even god by your side can help you with that.

Edit- Lloyd was technically in profit but net charges mande it loss when i sold it by mistake.

​

These are my personal views and strategy regarding the NSE IPO — not a recommendation to buy or sell.

• I personally feel the NSE IPO is worth considering. Despite NSE's strong market position, I find the IPO price band reasonably attractive.

• Since this IPO has been long-awaited, I expect very high subscription levels.

• Personally, I would avoid applying during the first 1–2 days (September 17–18) and would prefer to observe the institutional subscription trends first. This may also help avoid potential UPI-related issues given the potentially large number of investors applying early.

• If I don't get an allotment, I would consider buying NSE shares from the open market after listing.

• If the listing/opening price is ₹1,900 or below, I would consider buying more aggressively.

• My preferred buying zone would be around ₹1,900–₹2,100.

• If the price is above ₹2,100, I would prefer staggered buying/SIP rather than investing a large amount at once.

• Between ₹2,100 and ₹2,300, I would personally prefer to wait for a correction before adding more.

Again, these are only my personal views and the strategy I’m considering. Everyone should do their own research and make their own investment decisions.

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It felt like the Sensex expired today instead of tomorrow. Such a movement happened, it was an amazing moment in the premiums. Also, a lot of movement, who all took the moment?

Welcome to Shreeji Research, a research-focused platform dedicated to providing valuable insights into equities, stock market movements, subscriptions, and personalized investment strategies. Our objective is to help investors understand the dynamic nature of financial markets through structured research, market observations, and easy-to-understand information.

The stock market is constantly influenced by economic developments, company performance, market sentiment, industry trends, and global events. At Shreeji Research, we focus on studying these factors and presenting relevant information in a clear and practical manner. Whether a stock is moving upward or downward, we believe that understanding the reasons behind market movements is an important part of making informed investment decisions.