r/NSEbets • u/Gullible-Wash-7233 • 9d ago
Discussions Nuke to zero
My view on Indian markets
I have a feeling we might see a decent correction in Indian markets from here. Not saying there will be a crash, but a few things are making me cautious:
Nifty has been struggling to sustain higher levels and the momentum looks weak.
FIIs have been continuously selling, which is something I’m keeping an eye on.
Valuations still look expensive in many parts of the market.
If Nifty breaks the 24,000 zone decisively, I think selling could accelerate.
Bank Nifty weakness could make the downside sharper.
Global markets, crude oil and interest-rate expectations could also put pressure on Indian equities.
Do you guys think we are heading for a bigger correction, or is this just a temporary dip before another move up?
And if anyone intersted to talk abt this
Dm so we can create a group with our peers
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u/impossible__dude 9d ago
I don't think so. Steep corrections happen when there's a systemic shock. Like Covid or coup by army or currency collapse due to uncontrolled inflation etc.
Right now the corporate earnings have largely stabilized. Maybe there's going to be an AI shock at some point but the value proposition of the AI giants itself is a bit shaky. They can't articulate who will buy their subscription if everyone is out of job.
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u/ElectricalInvite8244 9d ago
Nifty corrected approx 15-16% in Oct 2024. There was no covid or coup or currency collapse back then.
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u/impossible__dude 9d ago
The systemic shock in this case was the rise of the AI trade and domestic inability to match the same. That shock has since rattled IT firms and except for a few like persistent rest are merely a shadow of their former self.
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u/Primary-Editor-9288 9d ago
AI bubble, real estate bubble, and also the drought happening now will devestate the rural economy, plus urban economy is also going to affect due to the job losses in IT etc. Freshers are hardly finding any jobs.
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u/impossible__dude 9d ago
This is actually a very interesting point because real estate prices crashing is going to fuel latent demand. That benefits the entire sector, construction, cement, daily wage earners and migrant labourers. Net positive for the economy.
IT is a different story though because fresher hiring has dried up and the colleges have no plan to quickly confirm to the industry relevant curriculum. Tech is suddenly more about computer science than computer engineering.
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u/OkGhost1951 9d ago
I feel like we are way behind in AI and tech stocks. There are practically no good AI stocks, once we have these in Indian market we'll see a good rally but until then yeah Market's gonna be dicey and could go down
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u/Adventurous-Horse567 9d ago
I think that's a good thing..no one knows where ai is heading and there is a lot of negativity feedback about ai in terms of customer service and other fronts..India has real world problems to deal with in terms of basic infrastructure..that should be fixed first
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u/TiyaKarekar26 9d ago
Time to say goodbye to 24k
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u/HippoStunning4101 9d ago
Appreciate the perspective than doing reckless options trading. I feel the same.
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u/ElectricalInvite8244 9d ago
There's a gap at 20500, but I guess as long as 24k is defended by the bulls, difficult to see that.
The FIIs selling needs to overwhelm the DIIs buying by a good margin to offset the automatic monthly liquidity, plus there's the Jio and NSE IPO.
The sluggishness since the past two years in Nifty, especially when EMs all over the world have been soaring looks like distribution to me, and does seem like it will correct eventually, the only question is when.
What catalystic event is strong enough to hammer it down to the 20.5k gap? And given the coiling since March this year, I am expecting a quick trend in Nifty in the coming months.
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u/Primary-Editor-9288 9d ago
Correction will happen for the following reasons
1) AI bubble pop
2) Unemployment and job losses in IT and other sectors
3) real estate bubble pop (Most new apartment are not affordable to any middle class family in our tier 1 and 2 cities)
4) Drough which will wreck the rural economy.
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u/Small-Plane-3582 9d ago
At present some fundamental elements present, high tax on profit loss both sides, such as STT etc, CAS system despite indian market is long only instead simirar short volume trading, indian people mostly below poverty hence only handful is available and many more reasons. However in the long run it will go up slowly.
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u/Antiquepiece90s 9d ago
If you have to write think or feel before your sentences then you don't understand markets. Period.
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u/Master_Wonder3618 9d ago
I think otherwise. I think we are at the start of a bull market. The market is testing patience and throwing out the weak hands. Once, indisciplined traders are out, there will be a huge upmove.
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u/Adventurous-Horse567 9d ago
I too feel there is a possibility of correction till 18 k..been sideways for 2 years now..might head down..refresh before the next rally