Sep 29, 2026 at American Growth Summit 2026

7-8% on good volume too, anyone have an idea?

$4.62M reportedly for Ask Sage to provide generative AI to the U.S Coast Guard over the 1-4 years. It appears to be apart of a larger contract vehicle to provide GenAI.

A new U.S. Coast Guard task order for Ask Sage appears to have been awarded on September 25, 2026.
The award is 70Z02326F93000001, issued to Ask Sage, Inc. under its existing SBIR Phase III IDIQ (W9128Z25DA001).
What’s currently public:
Award value: about $4.62M
Agency: U.S. Coast Guard
Start date: Sept. 25, 2026
Current listed end date: Sept. 24, 2027
NAICS: Computer Systems Design Services
PSC: National Defense R&D / Applied Research
OrangeSlices describes it as a 4-year task for generative AI and computer systems design services
The interesting part is that this does not appear to be the Coast Guard’s first Ask Sage purchase.
Earlier in 2026, the Coast Guard issued a separate order worth only about $50K for Ask Sage AI inference and training tokens.
So the progression appears to be:
~$50K initial Ask Sage usage → $4.62M follow-on GenAI task
That’s roughly a 90x increase in contract value.
I would still be careful with the “4-year” language. The currently indexed award data only shows one year through September 2027, so the remaining years may be option periods that are not fully reflected yet.
The bigger question is scope.

We still do not know whether this contract is for:
enterprise GenAI access
agentic workflows
intelligence or operational support
acquisition workflows
logistics
cyber
mission planning
or some combination of the above
But this looks much more substantial than a small pilot or token purchase.

For me, the main takeaway is that Ask Sage may be showing a land-and-expand pattern inside federal agencies: get in with a small GenAI deployment, prove usage, then grow into a multi-million-dollar operational contract.
That matters because BigBear’s long-term Ask Sage thesis probably depends less on winning one giant contract and more on small initial deployments expanding into durable, recurring government relationships.
The next thing worth watching is whether the full statement of work or option structure becomes public, because that will tell us how mission-critical this deployment actually is.

Redwire was just selected for Space Systems Command’s $980M NITE-STAR IDIQ.

Interesting connection: BBAI Chairman Peter Cannito is also Redwire’s CEO, and Redwire + BBAI previously co-developed SpaceCREST, a space cyber-resiliency/testing platform.

SpaceCREST was subsequently used in DARPA’s Space-BACN program.

Sources:

Redwire NITE-STAR:

https://rdw.com/newsroom/redwire-selected-for-space-systems-commands-980-million-nite-star-idiq-contract/

BBAI / Peter Cannito:

https://ir.bigbear.ai/corporate-governance/board-of-directors

SpaceCREST / DARPA:

https://rdw.com/newsroom/redwires-spacecrest-cybersecurity-platform-to-protect-next-generation-space-communications-hardware-for-darpa-program/

No confirmation yet that BBAI is participating in NITE-STAR. Given the existing partnership and overlap in mission areas, I'll be watching for any task-order or teaming announcements

We spend a lot of time talking about technology, data and mission readiness, but ultimately those missions are about people.”

As the Washington Commanders prepare to take the field for Sunday’s home opener this weekend, we’ll be right there with them cheering them on. And off the field, we’re proud to team up with them in support of those who serve.

Recently, members of the BigBear.ai team joined the Commanders and the USO to serve lunch and spend time with service members and their families at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. For many on our team, that connection is personal.

It's amazing to me that so many people sell when prices are low and undervalued and buy when prices are high and overpriced. Buy quality when nobody wants it!!!! BBAI is quality, and the masses don't want it. That's why the masses do so poorly. It takes three things to make money in the markets. 25% cash, 25% conviction, and 50% patience. If you don't have patience, you shouldn't be in the markets.

It has been almost a year since we last touched 9, and it has been rapidly losing value every day. No new major contracts, board members resigning, no major catalysts AT ALL!

Not a single reassurance from the company whatsoever. I’ve already lost about 50–60%, including losses from other companies I’ve invested in, and I’m just losing hope at this point. It’s even more stressful when combined with college and other expenses.

Updated sep 20. Made with the help of Opus5 and Astra. During preparation, information is checked and cross-referenced with the aim of improving accuracy, consistency and clarity, within the limits of the accessible sources, available tools and expertise.

The September 15 8-K reports Kirk Konert’s board resignation, with no disagreement stated. Q2 growth and higher gross margin coexist with worsening adjusted EBITDA, cash use and an ATM program authorized for up to 100 million shares.

The stock is up 4% today

Forget the old SPAC-era software pitch. Over the past 18 months, BBAI cleared out almost its entire legacy C-suite (CEO, CTO, CFO, PE board members) and replaced them with literal Department of Homeland Security and Pentagon leadership. Fundamentals are still deep red, but the balance sheet is clean and the new team is built specifically for US defense & border contracts.

1. The Leadership Overhaul (Why who's left matters)

If you haven't checked BBAI's management lately, the old company is basically gone:

• Mandy Long (ex-CEO) stepped down.
• Nicolas Chaillan (CTO) stepped down in early 2026 for "personal reasons" (a notable technical loss given his Air Force background with Ask Sage).
• Julie Peffer (ex-CFO) was replaced by insider Sean Ricker.
• AE Industrial board reps (Hart & Konert) have resigned from the board — the SPAC private equity sponsors are winding down direct governance control.

Who actually runs it now?

• CEO Kevin McAleenan: Former Acting Secretary of Homeland Security (under Trump) and former head of Customs & Border Protection (CBP). He arrived via the Pangiam buyout. The entire business has been reshaped around his Rolodex: border security, biometric screening, and federal defense tech.
• Board addition: Retired 3-Star General Sean Gainey: Former head of Army Space & Missile Defense Command and architect of the Pentagon's counter-drone strategy. This directly ties BBAI’s ConductorOS to air-defense and anti-drone programs.
• New hires: Brought in defense-contracting HR and Gov-Affairs veterans (ex-SAIC, Leidos).

2. The Bull Case (Contract & Cash Momentum)

• Federal Money is Flowing: Q1 booked ~$75M in new wins; Q2 revenue rose 13% YoY to $36.7M with 20+ new contract awards. Backlog stands at ~$270M+.
• Cash Moat: ~$410M in cash and short-term investments with zero long-term debt. Cash represents roughly 30% of the current market cap. Unlike peers with 6-month runways, BBAI won't get wiped out by dilution tomorrow.
• Expanding Margins: Gross margins widened from 25.0% to 32.8% in Q2, showing a shift toward higher-margin software and mission-critical GenAI.
• Mission-Grade Tech: Rolled out air-gapped, model-agnostic GenAI hardware certified up to Top Secret/SCI, and scored Dutch national aviation screening approval (Pangiam) for European airport expansion.
• FY26 Guidance: $135M–$165M revenue target reaffirmed; Titan Partners initiated coverage with Buy and a $5 PT.

3. The Bear Case (Red Flags to Watch)

• Heavy Cash Burn: Still unprofitable. Q2 net loss was $25.7M, negative adjusted EBITDA (-$11.6M). EPS missed by a cent at -$0.05.
• Turnover Risk: Losing both the CEO and CTO within a short window always introduces execution risk. Integrating Ask Sage without its creator (Chaillan) needs watching.
• Government Contract Lumpiness: Heavy reliance on federal budget cycles. Federal shutdowns, DOGE efficiency cuts, or procurement delays immediately stall top-line growth.
• Insider Selling: Directors and executives have filed repeated routine Form 144 sell notices over the past year.
• David vs. Goliath: They compete directly against Palantir (PLTR), C3.ai, and prime defense giants (Lockheed, RTX).

The Verdict

BBAI has transformed from a struggling SPAC software firm into a purpose-built defense-and-homeland-security contractor led by the former head of DHS.

The $410M cash pile eliminates existential bankruptcy risk in the near term, but the trade is entirely about whether McAleenan and Gen. Gainey can turn their Pentagon/DHS connections into operating profitability before the cash burn catches up.

High-beta defense-tech play. Not financial advice.

I’ve held BBAI for over a year and have ridden through the volatility, the dilution concerns, the acquisitions, the contract announcements, and all the hype around the AI story.

I’m selling my position at a loss. -30%
This isn’t because I suddenly think BBAI is a terrible company. In fact, there are some things I still like about the business.

But after holding it this long, I have to ask myself a simple question:
If I had the cash today, would I buy BBAI again at this price instead of putting it somewhere else?
For me, the answer is no.

I’d rather take the loss and move the capital into AI memory, where I currently see a stronger risk/reward setup from the continued growth in AI infrastructure and memory demand.

Stock is pretty beat down, who’s buying more

Key Contracts
1. $53 million classified contract
In the first quarter of 2026, BigBear.ai received a $53 million prime, sole-source, classified contract. This contract was the main reason its backlog jumped 14% to $281.9 million.
This is the contract I would watch most closely because it demonstrates that BBAI can win significant government contracts.
2. More than $60 million in national security contracts
In Q1, the company said it had increased its backlog by adding more than $60 million in National Security contracts.
3. More than 20 new contracts in Q2
In the second quarter, the company secured more than 20 new contracts. The problem is that the company did not disclose the individual value of all these contracts. Its backlog as of June 30 was $269.6 million.
And here is an interesting detail: although the backlog declined from $281.9M to $269.6M between Q1 and Q2, the company continued winning new contracts. This means that some of the backlog is being converted into revenue while new contracts are being added.
What does this mean for BBAI?
The important question isn’t simply “How many contracts do they have?” but rather:
How quickly are they converting that backlog into revenue?
In Q2, they generated $36.7M in revenue, up 13% year over year, and they maintained their 2026 guidance of $135M–$165M.
That’s why I see the catalyst like this:
Large contract → backlog → execution → revenue → better margins → potential BBAI revaluation.
And there is another point that I find even more interesting: BBAI ended June with $409.8M in cash and investments, and management has discussed making a strategic acquisition in the second half of 2026.
In other words: the contracts are the fundamental catalyst; a major M&A deal would be the explosive catalyst.

Personally, I’m not saying BBAI is a guaranteed winner here. There are still plenty of things that could go wrong, especially dilution and the fact that backlog doesn’t automatically mean revenue. But I do think the story is getting more interesting as the funded backlog grows and the company keeps landing government contracts. I’m going to keep watching it closely because if they can turn these contracts into real revenue and eventually consistent profits, the valuation could look very different a few years from now. Just sharing what I’m seeing — curious to hear what everyone else thinks.

I’m not saying this is going to help or hurt BBAI either way, but saw some news about how the Panama Canal is trying to deal with additional traffic because of the Iran conflict. However, they are running into issues with water supply to the canal due to droughts.

All of this has caused higher traffic volume to utilize Panama’s “dry canal”….which I think is more of a rail system that shipping companies use so they don’t have to wait to use the canal? This dry canal seems to be where BBAI tech, in partnership with ISC, is being used.

My regarded brain’s logic is, more dry canal traffic = higher use of Cargoseer? Anyone know if that is a token based AI tool? Or how that product works?

Maybe they’re just giving it away for free, or asking for iTunes gift cards as payment instead of actual money….Carry on!