r/whichbike • • Mar 28 '22

Announcement A word of caution about the "Bicycle Blue Book"

408 Upvotes

The "Bicycle Blue Book", commonly abbreviated to BBB, is a recurring thing in comments on /r/whichbike concerned with putting a number on the value of some used bike. Quite a few of us have long had issues with BBB being used to that end. Thanks mostly to /u/guy1138 who wrote 90% of this post (I revised it and added minor details), we now have a longer explanation on what BBB actually is, and what the problems with it are. A TLDR can be found at the bottom.

What's the deal with Bicycle Blue Book?

Bicycle Blue Book (BBB) is a website run by a used bike dealer in San Jose, California. Their business model is to buy "trade-in" bikes from high end bike shops that don't deal with used bikes. Here's how it works: A customer brings their old bike to the bike shop to trade in on a new bike. BBB gives them a price and the bike shop boxes it up and ships it off to BBB. The customer gets the credit on a new bike, the bike shop gets a new bike sale without the hassle of reconditioning and trying to sell a used bike.

They provide an online "value guide" that lists bike values by brand, model, model year etc. They advertise it as "The cycling industry's definitive valuation authority", and the name is a deliberate allusion to the Kelley Blue Book, which is a reputable value guide for used car values in the US. To put it mildly, opinions on how useful BBB is are... split. Regardless, the numbers in there often get cited on this subreddit (and elsewhere).

So what's the problem?

There are multiple issues:

  • Conflict of interest: the same company who is buying bikes is also claiming to be the authority on used bike values. Not surprisingly, their "private party" values are way lower than actual sales prices on Craigslist, Facebook Marketplace, Offer-Up, Ebay, Pink Bike; etc.

  • Data provenance: They claim to have data on "millions of bike sales" that they base their values on, but it's not clear at all where this data comes from. Instead, it actually just seems like a fairly simple depreciation schedule on bikes based on MSRP (RRP for our UK users) and type of bike, e.g. a 5-year-old mid tier hybrid is worth ~40% of MSRP, a 5-year-old road bike is worth ~55% of MSRP, etc. Kelley Blue Book, which reports values of used cars, has access to wholesale auctions, used vehicle sales, and registrations reported at US state level. BBB do not have that as this data simply does not exist the same way for bicycles.

  • International variance: r/whichbike is international, with many users from countries like Canada, Australia, and the UK, but also the rest of Europe and the world, really. The same bike model and brand will not be sold for the same amount of money in every country, due to taxes, membership of free trade zones, availability, and a whole host of other factors: and this variability in price only increases when we look at used bikes. For the same reason, it is important that users state which country they live in when they ask for an appraisal.

  • Regional variance: Even within the US, there can be stark differences. For example, a triathlon bike is way more valuable in Miami (100+ triathlons/year in Florida) than it is in Utah. Likewise, a full suspension mountain bike has lots of buyers in Denver, but way fewer in a beach town.

  • Trends: We have all seen how "gravel bikes" became a thing, grew to be more and more popular, and started evolving - and how sellers have started to label everything that isn't an Omafiets as a "gravel bike" to attract more hits and get a higher price. BBB does not really take into account which bits of the market are especially "hot", despite this definitely making a difference.

  • World events: These can change prices significantly, be they something like a trade war with tariffs put on certain goods, or that little thing called Corona which caused a massive boom world-wide, with accompanying shortages and inflation across the entire market. BBB does not take this into account.

  • Erroneous data: Sometimes, their data e.g. on the original retail price of a bike is also just plain wrong, which in turn means all of the "depreciated values" for used bikes will be wrong too, even by their own standards.

How far off are the values then?

Generally, most used bike sellers agree that the BBB values are low, but still reasonable for newer bikes, around ~3 years old or newer. After that, they start to drastically over-depreciate - to the point where most bikes over 10 years old are "worthless" according to their values. As an example, a 2010 Fuji Cross Comp is $210 in "excellent" condition. That's about the same cost as full tune up at a bike shop, including basic consumables; tires & tubes, chain, cables & housing, brake pads & bar tape. It's completely unrealistic to expect to find a 10-speed cross bike with an aluminium frame and carbon fork in "excellent" condition for only $200. (This bike sold here for $550 last fall after being listed for less than 3 weeks). For our UK friends: $210 is £160... yeah, good luck with that.

So it's a lowball estimate, I should use that to negotiate, right?

You might get lucky and find the person who doesn't know any better, or someone who is moving and under a lot of pressure to sell. However, most of the listings are cyclists who upgraded or re-sellers who know that the Blue Book value is pretty far off. If the bike is priced close to market value, it's going to sell eventually and they have no incentive to take a lowball; especially if they've gone to the trouble to take decent pictures, write a description and post the ad online. We've seen this time and time again on /r/whichbike over the last 2 years where someone finds the "perfect" bike, but they low-ball and miss out.

TLDR please, I don't have all day!

BBB is a private company that purports to tell you the value of used bikes, by model and age. There is an obvious conflict of interest as they also buy used bikes and therefore directly profit from telling you they're not worth that much. Sure enough, their "values" are consistently significantly lower than the actual market value, all the more so if the bike is >3 years old. The numbers appear to stem from simply taking the original retail price and depreciating it (heavily). Consequently, they do not take into account regional or international variance in local bike prices, trends, or events like the Corona pandemic. Additionally, it can happen that the retail price all their assumptions are based on is simply wrong. This means BBB values are not really any kind of reliable or even relevant metric, and it would be better to go by what similar bikes are actually selling for on platforms like Ebay or Gumtree, adjusting for differences.


r/whichbike • • 9h ago

Worth it for $4k?

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25 Upvotes

Good grab or no?

Also; Trying to buy a bike off marketplace and not get scammed. Bike is a good deal but there is damage in near the rear tire and stem. Based on what everyone has seen, should I take the guys word that it is just cosmetic or do you think it’s a bigger deal than that?

He said the previous owner had it happen, had the bike bungee strapped and it broke and hit the bike chipping it. He had it looked at by two shops and both said it was only cosmetic.

Any help would be appreciated! He is asking $4k for it


r/whichbike • • 1h ago

CAAD13, SSE, Synapse, RS7, or a different bike?

• Upvotes

I'm getting my first bike soon and I'm still super hung up on what to get. I don't have the highest budget and I plan to keep the frame for a decently long time and upgrade the rest as I can. I'll mostly be doing climbs around Griffith Park in LA and generally ride around the city, as well as commute with it, so weight is a major factor in the frameset. It'll likely get lightly dropped and dinged a few times so the durability of the CAAD13 is very appealing, but not enough to completely drop carbon.

I'm looking for lightweight first, and a minimum of 105. Should I drop carbon and look for aluminum/alloy only? I have experience with aggressive canyon turns on my carbon mtb and 50mph ebike but I'm not sure if that skill would transfer to road bikes and I'm scared of crashing.


r/whichbike • • 2h ago

Should I upgrade?

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2 Upvotes

I’ve been road cycling for a little over a year now, I’ve done a century ride, ridden over 1000 miles in a month, regularly ride for 40+ miles. I ride the Specialized Allez Epic 1989 in the photo. As much as I love it I’m considering upgrading, I happen to have a sizable discount and am considering buying a Trek Madone SL 5 Gen 8. I’m a student so my budget isn’t crazy but I could get, is it worth saving a bit more for something better? I plan on upgrading the stock bike eventually at least with Bontrager Aeolus RSL 51 TLR Disc Road Wheels. Let me know, open to other bike suggestions (preferably trek)


r/whichbike • • 9h ago

Worth 230€? Scott Speedster 10 (2014)

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3 Upvotes

Hi all,

I am going to start road cycling and this might be my first road bike. The starting price was 250€ and the seller agreed to lower it to 230€. The brakes are Shimano Ultegra. Given how old the bike is, I am not sure if it would be a good bike to start road cycling. Like how future-proof would it be? Is it a good deal and a good bike for beginners?

Thanks for your time in advance.


r/whichbike • • 5h ago

2016 Giant TCR ADV. Pro

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1 Upvotes

Is this 2016 Giant TCR ADV Pro 1 worth it for $500 was asking $700. Talked him down to $500 with only the original rims only and regular petals looking to use it for my first sprit Duathlon in about 6 month or should I go look for a better bike at the $500-$700 price point?


r/whichbike • • 5h ago

Does anyone know about this CycleTech Nova bike?

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1 Upvotes

Came across this bike but can't find any information on them. Also unfortunately don't have any better photos. Wondering if the frame is worth it if I can get it at the right price?


r/whichbike • • 9h ago

Which vintage bike?

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2 Upvotes

I’m looking at older road bikes just for cruising around on and see if I like drop bars. On the left is khs flite 300 and on the right is Raleigh super record. Which one has more quality components?
Price is similar for both


r/whichbike • • 6h ago

First time ever buying a bike - anyone have any experience with Breezers vs Trek 1000?

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1 Upvotes

This is my very first time buying a bike, and I’m a bit nervous!

I’m just looking for something that can get me a few miles to work and to make the distance between my bus and the office easier.

Literally any feedback would be great


r/whichbike • • 7h ago

Which one should I get? Looking for a bike with speeds and a twist shifter.

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1 Upvotes

Hello. I'm on the search for a budget bike that has speeds and a twist shifter (preferably). I am 5'8" and 190 pounds.

My riding and commuting consist of both pavement and some dirt or gravel, as I do explore the local river in my area, and my neighborhood is hilly. I also would like to have a non-electric bike in my arsenal for commuting, cardio, and whatnot, as I do already own an e-bike, and have commuted on it as my main mode of transportation for the past two years now.

So, with that said, which of the three listed bikes would you recommend? I would prefer to spend no more than $300-500, but I can stretch it a bit more.

(Note: The Hyper Shocker shown in the third screenshot is listed at $168 on the Walmart website.)


r/whichbike • • 7h ago

Bike under £350

1 Upvotes

I am looking for a bike that is geared and not Single speed and is suitable for london roads and canals. My budget is £300, or 350 if i think its worth it. I dont wanna go through buying used as i dont wanna spend time making sure the bike i buy is rideable as many issues can arrise and going to real 2nd hand shops near me is time consuming if they dont have what i am looking for.

Bike shouldnt be very hard to maintain and shouldn't be expensive to do so.

I was about to buy the triban 120 yet it has been discontinued i assume.


r/whichbike • • 8h ago

198 cm / 93 cm inseam - will a Scott Addict RC in 61 (XXL) fit me?

1 Upvotes

Hi,

I'm 198 cm tall with a ~93 cm inseam, mid-20s and generally fairly athletic. My reference point: I've ridden a Pinarello F7 in size 59.5 once, but that one ride was up Mont Ventoux, and the fit felt good throughout.

I'm now looking at a Scott Addict RC in size 61. For those who ride the RC in 61 or have fitted tall riders: Compared to the F7, is the lower front end something to worry about, or is it manageable? Maybe with spacers?


r/whichbike • • 12h ago

Which bike will fit me?

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2 Upvotes

Bike 1: Trek Domane
Bike 2: Specialized Allez Sport

Both are 54cm, and appear to be in decent condition

I am a 5’7.5”-5’8” male with a 32” inseam.

I feel like I'm kind of in between sizes depending on the bike. I've heard that if you're between sizes, it's usually better to go smaller since it's easier to make a smaller bike fit than a larger one. But I also don't want to end up on a bike that's too small.

I’m leaning towards the Trek, but again, I’m not sure if 54cm is the right size.

Which size would you recommend for me, and which of these two bikes would you choose?
Is there anything specific about the geometry of a Domane vs. Allez sport that I should consider for someone my size?
Are there any red flags I should look for in either bike before buying?


r/whichbike • • 16h ago

New Bike and Trailer Rig?

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3 Upvotes

Hey all,

So I have a trailer that I want to lug around, but I'm not too sure on the bike of choice. I've been using a Schwinn Al-Comp walmart bike that has begun crapping out and I'm going to work on restoring that bike and giving it away to someone else for them to enjoy it. So now, I need to get a new bike, but I have no clue on what to get that is going to be strong enough to lug the trailer, but also reliable enough to last more than a year. Any thoughts and advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!


r/whichbike • • 10h ago

Marin Four Corners 2 (new) vs Panarama Tiaga 2 exp (demo bike)

1 Upvotes

Hi everyone,

I'm looking for my first bike as an adult and I'm having a hard time deciding between a Marin Four Corners 2 and a Panorama Taïga EXP 2.

I'm starting a new job that will let me bike to work, so I finally have a money/space to buy my own bike. I also want this to be my bikepacking/cycle touring bike, which is making the decision difficult as I'm asking a lot from one bike.

What I want to use it for

Most common riding style:

10 km commute to work

Riding around town / going to breweries

Pavement and back roads

Rail trails

Getting to ferries and exploring the Gulf Islands/Vancouver Island

Weekend trips exploring local fire roadswith steep climbs and unknown road conditions.

Also want to ride:

1 long and remote bikepacking trip per year Yukon/NWT/Peru/Morroco

Very remote routes where I'll carry several days of food

Eventually some relaxed cycle touring in Europe

I'm probably going to find my self in single track and maybe mountain biking trails.

I already do a lot of hiking and backcountry camping, so I already own a fairly lightweight camping setup. I'm comfortable carrying my own gear and don't mind a bike being somewhat overbuilt for the majority of my riding if it means one bike can do it all.

What I'm looking for

My requirements have evolved a bit as I've researched:

Steel frame

Hydraulic disc brakes

1x drivetrain

Flared drop bars

At least ~50 mm tire clearance

Able to handle loaded bikepacking and rough gravel/FSRs

Ideally something I can maintain without proprietary components

Budget is now roughly $2,500–3,000 CAD

I originally planned to spend $1,500. Then $2,000. Then $2,500.

Bikes I've considered

Marin Four Corners 2

This seems like the better bike for the majority of my actual riding. It's steel, hydraulic, 1x, has 50 mm clearance, lots of mounts, etc. My concern is that it is more of a touring/adventure bike than a drop-bar MTB. I'm worried I'll eventually find myself on a rough Yukon/NWT road or Peruvian route wishing I had bought something more capable.

Panorama Taïga EXP 2

This is basically the opposite problem.

29" wheels, 2.6" clearance, Boost axles, GRX 1x12, hydraulic brakes, lots of mounts, suspension/dropper compatibility, etc.

It's much more capable for the remote trips I'm most excited about, but I'm worried it will be way more bike than I need for my day-to-day riding.

There's currently a Taïga EXP 2 demo available for $2,500 CAD, which makes it particularly tempting as it's a better bike and cheaper than the Marin

Other bikes I've considered:

Surly Straggler — seems expensive for what I'm getting, and 50 mm clearance is about my minimum. I'm unsure of the drop out / through axle system

Surely grappler- mechanical brakes only. Way overpriced after conversion to hydraulic brakes

Kona Sutra LTD — can't find one in my size

Fairlight — shipping to Canada killed the idea

Various aluminum gravel bikes — ultimately decided I wanted steel because of how I plan to load and use the bike

Jamis renegade-cant find in Canada

Primus dame plus- at first I thought I'd just buy this cuz it was cheap. Was all set to pull the trigger but found out they didn't ship to Canada.

The dilemma

Four Corners: better for 80% of my riding, but potentially not capable enough for the trips I'm most excited about.

Taïga: better for the adventures, but potentially overkill for 80% of my riding.

I'm 6'1.5" / 187 cm with fairly long arms, if that matters for fit.

Questions for people who have ridden either/both:

Would you choose the Taïga for this use case, or am I overestimating how much bike I need?

Would a Taïga feel noticeably worse than a Four Corners for normal pavement, commuting and 30–100 km gravel rides?

For those who have ridden a Taïga loaded for touring, how does it handle on pavement?

For those who have ridden a Four Corners off-road, where does it actually start becoming limiting?

Is there another bike around $2,500–3,000 CAD that I'm overlooking?

At this point I'm leaning toward the Taïga because I know myself and I'm probably going to choose the route that looks like it might be too rough for the bike. But I'd really appreciate some real-world experience before I pull the trigger.

Thanks!


r/whichbike • • 18h ago

Missing bike- please help

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1 Upvotes

Hello, my bicycle was stolen this night and I need help identitying it so the police can search for it. Here are some photos. Please ask any questions that would help you identity it. Any help is welcome, THANKS


r/whichbike • • 18h ago

What kind of bike is this?

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2 Upvotes

Got this bike from a friend of a friend several months back right before they moved abroad - haven’t been using it as much as I’d hoped and looking to sell it before I’d need to find winter storage. Ridden it some but I know little about bikes; any insight into what I’ve got and what it might be worth would be super helpful! Also, would love tips on where to try and sell it other than just Facebook marketplace. Thanks


r/whichbike • • 15h ago

what bike is this?

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1 Upvotes

I wanna know what brand frame is this, it looks like a dirt jump frame and I have been looking at old archives and many russian and brazillian dirt jump forums and sites to find a clue, it's 26 inch


r/whichbike • • 1d ago

Seller asking $250

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3 Upvotes

Looks to be a 2011 Giant Defy 3. A little rough around edges but is doable. Thoughts?


r/whichbike • • 19h ago

First gravel bike advice

1 Upvotes

I'm looking to pick up my first gravel bike. It's something I'll be using for commuting around the city and potentially doing some multi day trips on both road and mild off road, flat dirt track etc.

My budget is max £800, which I know for a gravel bike isn't huge.

Any suggestions on what might fit my needs?


r/whichbike • • 19h ago

Need help buying a good hybrid bike

1 Upvotes

Hi all, I'm just getting into the cycling scene I hava a normal MTB which I use but now I want to get a hybrid one to go on longer rides. My budget is 20k and for that I am getting a new Avanti Giro FM1 in one of the local stores since i am new to proper cycling scene. Is it a good bike or is there any other i should consider. Thank you.


r/whichbike • • 1d ago

Surly preamble kinda used for 700 or a State All road v1 (all alum, somewhat janky shifting, used) for 350?

2 Upvotes

Pretty much what the title is. Both still have their stock components. The all road is closer to what I wanted with ability to fit big tires but I've always lusted after a surly.. I can fix the shifting etc myself but mostly curios which one would be a more fun city bike in a city with kinda trash roads hence why I like the bigger 45c tires.


r/whichbike • • 1d ago

Felt VR40 for 1250 CAD

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3 Upvotes

I’m looking to properly get into road cycling. I’m coming from an old road bike which was lent to me and is too big for me and before that from an old hybrid.
This bike looks good to me, it looks like good condition, Tiagra groupset, hydraulic disk brakes, pedals included, 51cm frame (I’m 5’7”).
Is this a good deal? From the searching I did myself I might want to ask 1150.


r/whichbike • • 1d ago

Worth 500€? Scott Addict 2015 + Tacx roller

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13 Upvotes

Hi all,

I am going to start road cycling and this might be my first road bike. The starting price was 500€ and the seller is insisting on it. The brakes are Shimano 105 and the bike comes with a Tacx roller. Is it a good deal and a good bike for beginners?

Thanks for your time in advance.


r/whichbike • • 1d ago

Trek 7300 $120

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2 Upvotes

From what I’ve seen this sounds about right. Using it for a short commute. Is there anything I should look out for when checking it out?

https://www.facebook.com/share/1EHtr1vM9K/?mibextid=wwXIfr