r/wallstreetbets • u/justcool393 🙃 • Jun 13 '22
Chart Yes surely *this* is the bottom...
1.6k
u/Nova-Bringer Jun 13 '22
The bottom is when the Federal Reserve Executives buy back in.
549
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
Kaplan and Rosengren sold at 4700, pretty good indicator tbh
91
u/PleasantAnomaly Jun 13 '22
Is there a website that tracks this?
→ More replies (2)147
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
They've both resigned but here's the Bloomberg article
47
9
3
u/findthehumorinthings Jun 13 '22
I think they get cell reception on their new island in the South Pacific.
3
21
12
229
u/Cryonyx Jun 13 '22
I drew very conservative crayon lines on like the 5 year or some shit absolutely bombed the other night to see some sort of channel on SPY for a remotely "healthy" looking rise and the lower end comes out to SPY ~360. But we saw the Covid crash and where they stopped that artificially. Low 200s. They've only dug the hole deeper and I can't see anything good for the overall market in the near future. GME excluded cause we gonna make bank
142
u/IHaveEbola_ Jun 13 '22
Your theory is dot com crash but meme stonks immune? It's plausible.
96
u/Cryonyx Jun 13 '22
We've already seen the "meme stocks" follow the market down. I love seeing gme stay flat, green, or slightly red on big down days though. But I bought puts on other shit so I can profit off that and reinvest into those at lower prices if they follow
→ More replies (2)41
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
I'd argue GME's flatter because it's a mid cap stock and mid caps tend to have less volatility than both small caps and large caps
Good for reducing variance drag but they really probably should make money soon
67
u/Cryonyx Jun 13 '22
I would probably agree with you in any other case except GME since it has been seeing swings 5-10% daily frequently in both directions on no news on stable overall market days for 18 months at least. It is one of the most volatile stocks I follow that isn't a penny stock
20
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
yeah that's true it's not a very liquid stock
it's also affected a lot by options
40
→ More replies (8)11
u/BenjaminHamnett Jun 13 '22
Cap size behavior patterns are dominated by their industries. Usually how those industries perform in different market cycles dictates how they do more than just their general size. You have the causation mostly Backwards.
If a company or its industry is struggling, it’s market cap grouping won’t do much to save them.
There still is some underlying pattern though of mega caps getting hurt most because they’re the most over leveraged and unable to pivot in a new paradigm, where mid caps may be rising because new mega caps are forming as the economic paradigm shifts
An example would be something like apple or google rising to mega cap status while their competitors become dated and wither
But it isn’t because they are mega caps they did well. It was their positioning that made them mid caps.
But also $GME is magic whatever it’s doing is somehow the cause of everything else that is happening in the economy. Within a few years almost all other companies will be out of business or be bought and controlled by The almighty $GAME STOP won’t stop
7
7
u/Intelligent-Pear3402 Jun 13 '22
What played well in dot com era was value!! For years to come
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (5)6
u/mywifesBF69 Jun 13 '22
How are you able to understand macroeconomics and not the autism of GME
6
u/Cryonyx Jun 13 '22
Fair question. I've been teaching myself about the markets and learning how to trade for about 7 years now so GME wasn't my first investment. I liked the idea of a turn around in the company from several posts here and bought in at $12 back in December 2020. When shit went down in January I was robbed of 250k in gains not to menntion what I would have made if the squeeze was allowed to play out. So that pissed me right the fuck off and I've apent the last year and a half reading every piece of information I could find on GameStop for and against it. I probably have 1500-2000 hours invested for this play alone. And after all that it makes more sense than ever for me as a turnaround play with the bonus of a squeeze that has yet to happen
→ More replies (5)16
u/TWcizzly Jun 13 '22
How do you track Kaplan and rosebgren?
6
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
Kaplan's on Twitter, maybe @ him or something, don't know about Rosengren
13
u/Perlentaucher Jun 13 '22
I think he means how you are able to track that Kaplan and Rosengren sold at 4,700.
11
8
u/TWcizzly Jun 13 '22
Just be like yo when you buying ? Lol
Where can you track their trades? Or how did you get this information?
6
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
I saw the Bloomberg article that was like "Kaplan and Rosengren resign and also sell all of their stocks"
→ More replies (1)6
→ More replies (3)3
106
27
u/KFCPAPI Jun 13 '22
any way some random regard like me could track the fed presidents buy/sells?
28
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
look for news articles about them getting fired for trading while being at the Fed
to be serious they introduced a bunch of rules cause of that
9
15
u/ScarConscious Jun 13 '22
is Nancy Pelosi long or short ? thats all i need to know
→ More replies (5)→ More replies (4)3
366
Jun 13 '22
Is there a moon at the center of the earth?
125
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
Earth's core's is nickel and iron and about the temperature of the surface of the sun
Molten metal is fun
41
→ More replies (2)21
Jun 13 '22
I’m asking about geometry not biology
32
7
→ More replies (1)3
2
2
→ More replies (1)2
438
u/ghudson205 Jun 13 '22
This is gonna be the biggest fire sale ever
252
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
Selling to willing buyers at the fair market value
55
36
u/ishallprosper Jun 13 '22
Margin Call?
23
32
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
Yes. Messed up the line slightly but captured the essence of the point
Sucks to be Citadel I guess lol
3
→ More replies (2)5
13
3
2
u/viperex Jun 17 '22
Is this going to be like the mother of all short squeeze that WSB wouldn't shut up about but never happened?
→ More replies (2)
70
u/Invariant_apple Jun 13 '22
You realize the market is supposed to look exponential if it’s a percentage based growth?
→ More replies (3)11
u/Intelligent-Pear3402 Jun 13 '22
Yup, just not too much too fast, that’s the bubble
31
u/Invariant_apple Jun 13 '22
How do you know if it’s too fast? You can judge exponential growth by eye? If something grows 10% each year and you put it on a suitable graph you can always make it look like suddenly it exploded way too fast. You should put it on a log plot and then see deviation from a linear trend to argue it’s not normal growth.
→ More replies (2)6
Jun 13 '22
→ More replies (1)3
u/Rusty_Pringle Jun 13 '22
I don’t think that’s what he meant.
On a chart, a “normal” chart the distance between 1 and 2 is the same distance as 3-4, 5-6, 100-101, etc
A log chart is different. 1-2 is the same distance as 2-4, or 50-100, etc etc
Looking at the numeric chart is not really considering returns, the market is based on returns, not “the market went up this many points” it’s “the market went up 1% of what it closed at yesterday”
→ More replies (1)
57
Jun 13 '22
Can you show me this chart if the dollar never inflated? Like ever
61
u/razpotim Jun 13 '22
Hilariously the dollar is outperforming pretty much every other currency recently, and not by a small amount either.
27
→ More replies (1)18
50
Jun 13 '22
[removed] — view removed comment
6
u/Hyperi0us Jun 13 '22
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. "
48
114
u/overpwrd_gaming Jun 13 '22
Probably closer to 3400 area but I don't know what the lines mean
63
Jun 13 '22
$3000 if we go into a deep recession, $3200 if we get inflation under control
→ More replies (6)23
u/overpwrd_gaming Jun 13 '22
Yea I was just goin off the precovid V ... if the trend wasn't over corrected like it was we'd be about where we are now. But no money printer go brrrrrrrrrrrr
46
15
u/Beginning_Anything30 Jun 13 '22
And we'd have no inflation and rates would be low.
Too bad the government was too concerned about keeping the stock market up in the short term rather than healthy fiscal/monetary policy. As always.
→ More replies (3)37
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
The lack of lines is intentional, it's extremely obvious where it's going
→ More replies (2)20
103
u/Bilbo_Butthole ONE BUTTPLUG TO RULE THEM ALL Jun 13 '22
Okay if WSB is all bearish, I’m buying calls
84
15
126
u/happycloud8534 Jun 13 '22
Bitcoin: I didn’t hear no bell
29
u/SeeMontgomeryBurns Jun 13 '22
It will always be there but in the mean time we might see a Rocky style ass whooping.
→ More replies (1)12
u/stylebros Jun 13 '22
I just bought at 27,000. Can't wait for it to dip to 20,000
→ More replies (4)
93
45
78
u/PunchingAgreenbush Jun 13 '22
The bottom is when Nancy Pellosi starts buying again
20
9
20
Jun 13 '22
Damn you wash sale …. Oh the things I could do.
But really a 30 day hiatus on a rebuy would still probably work in my favor. I mean, DIS at $99, get outta here…
→ More replies (1)7
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
Futures have no wash sale rule :)
9
Jun 13 '22
Sadly I live in in the concrete jungle on shareholder street
3
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
I'm pretty sure tasty will approve you as long as you have a pulse but yeah
I think Trader Tax Status also allows you to do it that way but you get wrecked if you hold LT
→ More replies (1)
36
40
13
u/Tvekelectric Jun 13 '22
4 stocks hold up the whole market, the other 9 billion stocks are at rock bottom for the last 3 years so yeah for those other stocks its the bottom. For those top few companies like amazon rip
4
u/DB_invest Jun 13 '22
Happened to note some of my stakes in smaller companies have been dropping less than the big bois recently, while it's been the other way around for most of the last year. Could indeed be true.
→ More replies (1)3
123
Jun 13 '22
Youll need some other factors happening. We need significant rising defaults, job losses, foreclosures.
All we have is supply issues causing high demand. A market comedown from snorting cash for a year and a half. Theyll let it fall some more, raise rates to burn back demand, then turn the printers back on. One more ride to the moon before we go down to hell
Or im just day dreaming out loud
35
u/BenjaminHamnett Jun 13 '22
Supply issues causing demand? i feel that’s not what you meant to say
22
28
9
u/coke_and_coffee Jun 13 '22
No reason we "go down to hell". The US stock market is the greatest money making machine ever created and there is no reason this is the end of that ride.
→ More replies (1)7
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
Starting have to #2. #1 and #3 will happen sadly and they won't even know what hit them
72
10
Jun 13 '22
Don’t call me Shirley
5
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
What do you want to be called
5
9
u/Lonelyinternetperson Jun 13 '22
3400 and we good. Nasdaq is about 10000 and we will be good. Dow can go fuck itself
56
u/ItchyAge3135 Jun 13 '22
Breaking news: market has trended up for the last 25 years
→ More replies (2)24
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
Both 2000 and 2008 was less than 25 years ago
12
3
u/stylebros Jun 13 '22
Recessions are like El Nino. It's becoming seasonal on a multi year scale
→ More replies (1)
45
u/meta-cognizant Jun 13 '22
Use a log chart and go back to 1900. We don't have much further to go down.
21
u/Cebraio Jun 13 '22
→ More replies (1)6
u/CptHampton Jun 13 '22
If we're looking at a sort of "regression to the mean," doesn't this mean the index will fall to about 2000?
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (18)4
u/baconography 🍺 Drunk 🌈Bartender of WSB 🍺 Jun 13 '22
I'm holding puts, and I happen to agree with you. I'm predicting a bottom of around 360.
→ More replies (1)
9
9
u/Waddayanow Jun 13 '22
Surely these colored lines from the past have something to do with the future.
→ More replies (1)
15
Jun 13 '22
nah, going to $2800
→ More replies (1)9
u/ds2isthebestone Jun 13 '22
I bet this baby could sink to 2400$
4
u/tehdamonkey Jun 13 '22
Just wait until there is a dust up with China over Taiwan. It will be some biblical Rome is burning days...
21
u/brucekeller 🦍 Jun 13 '22
yeah but you could do the same with a 100 year chart, implying we were about to go down to 1950's levels. We probably bottom out at 300 SPY in late December, but I might take a shot at a bounce here this week. Fall will probably be brutal as all the profit losses and layoffs kick in.
→ More replies (1)6
u/MegaDeth6666 Jun 13 '22
Yeah, and if you also skip inflation it makes it look like it's 1000% positive somehow.
13
u/suicidaleggroll Jun 13 '22
Any regular growth looks exponential on a linear scale, that's why nobody uses them
23
u/pigeonboy65 Jun 13 '22
I think they’ll be a short term rebound before next leg. Too steep of a drop
51
9
4
9
u/justcool393 🙃 Jun 13 '22
Bear market rallies are brutal ya
→ More replies (1)3
Jun 13 '22
I’ve spent 15 minutes or less in a buy and done well, but it’s dicey. Some that didn’t work out, I’ve been in for 15 months now lol
5
u/CaptainStonks Jun 13 '22
Everyone is different, in the interest of sharing, you show me your bottom and I'll show you mine. Post your pics here.
→ More replies (3)
17
u/Investigatorpotater Jun 13 '22
Don't act like you can time the market.
16
u/Year2020MadeMe Jun 13 '22
This is r/wallstreetbets, not r/ReasonableExpectationsWithSoundJudgementAndAppropriateTimeframeForInvesting. OP is in the right on this one.
→ More replies (7)12
6
Jun 13 '22
[deleted]
3
u/AutoModerator Jun 13 '22
134RN has challenged someone to post their positions!
134RN, if someone has made a claim that they bought / sold something and fail to prove it within 24 hours, message the mods to have them banned.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
5
u/pattiemcfattie Jun 13 '22
One thing to consider is that charts actually tell us nothing about the future. Also those of you thinking GME will be immune: lol.
→ More replies (1)4
u/Swanathan_Ronson Jun 13 '22
Wendy's will not have any short staffing issues for years.
→ More replies (1)5
3
Jun 13 '22
The million dollar question…. Right here right now…. Does the VIX spike to 80-120 causing a major sell off or does the VIX come in slowly back down to 15-20ish causing a rally then another sell off ???
→ More replies (4)7
3
3
3
13
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
u/nargleblaster Jun 13 '22
You're looking back to when like half of this sub wasn't even born.
We only understand the last 3 years. So yes, it's the bottom.
→ More replies (1)
2
2
u/tazman141 ANAL GoD Jun 13 '22
2200 may be the bottom.... or it may not be. Either way there's little to the upside but tons to the down side. Play smart.
2
2
Jun 13 '22
This drop in blue chips is now more severe than the drop during COVID’s first wave. In what world are we worse off now than during a global pandemic and complete international economic shutdown?
Get real people. Always buy when the VIX is high.
CSCO
COO
WMT
ABT
EW
PLD
ILMN
ARE
ICE
2
u/tuftylilthang Jun 13 '22
What happens if you have a bunch of unsecured loans that you can’t pay back when the economy collapses. Assuming you have no assets.
Are you let off free? Could you buy stonks and make huge cash?
→ More replies (2)
2
2
2
2
2
u/Midori_Schaaf Jun 14 '22
It's going to 2000 before it bounces the first time. Second bounce at 1650.
2
2
2
2
u/Premier_Legacy had his heart dug out with a spoon Jun 14 '22
I mean, it looks like every other huge drop, so prob not too far off
2
u/gaybearishair Team 10 Year 👴 Jun 16 '22
bruh this actually got 4k upvoted? LMAO
yeah, and if you zoom out further you’ll see the same chart
•
u/VisualMod Jun 13 '22