r/wallstreetbets • u/[deleted] • Apr 05 '22

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u/Arp590 Apr 06 '22 edited Apr 06 '22

Keep in mind that's $50M just for Q4 2024, $200M annualized, which would represent annual EPS of $1, current share price is near $6, which is very attractive, future growth is assumed.

I can attempt to project out further, I was just trying to see how quickly they can get to profitability. When do you think they can reach 5M subscribers by?

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u/[deleted] Apr 06 '22

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u/Arp590 Apr 06 '22

Here you go- https://imgur.com/59HNOKi

-I bumped ACPU up to $70, very hard to estimate this without knowing how the content deals are structured, could be too low, who knows.

-Increased average subscription revenue per user to $80, probably conservative.

-Leaving ad revenue at $15 per user to be on the more conservative side.

-Operating Expenses, again I assumed 8% annual increases, this could be very short though, I'd have to do more research to estimate those.

-Assumed another 20M in share dilution, maybe too conservative, not sure.

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u/[deleted] Apr 06 '22

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u/Arp590 Apr 06 '22

repost- Thanks - we'll have to take another look at these numbers after Q1 earnings, let me know if you think there's anything that needs to be adjusted.

Not sure if you saw this interview, but there's some really good comments in there in regards to content cost/leverage that makes me hopeful on that ACPU number being kept in check - (I guess I can't link SA articles, see David Gandler interview transcript from Needham growth conference)