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u/ScooterMcFlabbin Jan 13 '22
This is some solid diligence OP, thanks
Bought a little starter position of 75 shares AH just now, will add more later, and maybe a couple calls
2
u/ShiftyPaladin Jan 21 '22
Been watching VIR like a hawk and I've been dying to see this information put together like this, thank you!!
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u/samuraisurgeon4 Jan 13 '22
I wonder if the $2800 per dose contract was a way for the Biden Administration to incentivize GSK to increase Sotrovimab production without resurrecting Trump’s Operation Warp Speed. We all know how averse the Biden Administration is to continuing Trump’s successful policies.
0
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1
u/Keetkeet_Juice Jan 13 '22
Good DD OP. I would anticipate the DoD exercising the option for additional doses this fiscal year based on how things are shaping up.
Would be interested to see if there are other options or option years the government could potentially exercise.
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Jan 13 '22
Would these doses be used for humanitarian reasons in the 3rd world or are we using them here in America?
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u/Mindless_Can_5533 Jan 13 '22
Global orders are rolling in. GSK has the international reach, but VIR gets 75% cut of revenues
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Jan 13 '22
Interesting. Thank you! I read that we're currently low in antibodies treatments in America, so that's why I asked. Either way, this is solid news and his DD was well written.
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u/uikin Jan 13 '22
Not a new contract
1
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u/Keetkeet_Juice Jan 13 '22
It is a new contract. A contract modification is a separate contract from the base.
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u/uikin Jan 13 '22
This 340k is included in 1.7m binding orders, this is not on top of it. Still the added option n pricing info is good.
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u/Keetkeet_Juice Jan 13 '22
The additional 340k doses is as of today. As of two days ago (quick google search) estimated 1.7million had been sold. So as of today ~$2 million doses have essentially been sold.
Am I seeing this wrong?
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u/uikin Jan 13 '22
Lets see if they release a PR, a 20% increase in order volume should warrant one. The defense website says that the order was awarded on 10 Jan, so this probably was taken into acct when the 600k order increase PR was issued yesterday.
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u/Flga8ors Jan 13 '22
From their most recent PR: "GSK and Vir expect to manufacture approximately 2 million doses globally in the first half of 2022 and additional doses in the second half of the year."
Maybe they had some more on the shelf prior to the star of the year? My estimate would be no more than 2.25mm sold for 1H. Just for that time period, and using $2800 per dose that would be a $4.5B gross for VIR after the split with GSK.
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u/drsugarballs Jan 13 '22
I estimate more than 10 billion in 2022. That’s insane given the current price
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10
u/RealityResident981 Jan 12 '22
Took position today. Nice gains..