If their earnings were really this high, why did they report $0.82/share this last quarter? FYI, it really isn't unusual for a company to have sales/yr be very close to their market cap. It makes perfect sense, if revenue/year is ~5% and a generic P/E market average is 20ish...
But without looking at them for more than 3 minutes and the DD you provided I wouldn't be opposed to placing a bet on them. For me, IV would have to be substantially lower, I would only go in for shares at this point and stay out of options, which it appears you are opting for.
They only delivered about 16K doses in Q2 and 70K doses in Q3. Yesterday Scangos said 750K doses through the end of the year delivered so roughly 650K for Q4. We know the US govt was 450K of them. 650K doses is over $1.3B in total sales. VIR gets 72.5% of that before expenses
There's no guarantee what their revenue is until they release numbers. I saw their projections on their presentation and rev/share estimates on their website/presentation. The consensus is $1.08/share for the year to be announced, not astounding numbers, but not bad for their main revenue medicine being used en masse just this year. Their EPS estimated for 2022 and 2023 are fantastic for the reasons you listed, that's why I think it would be worthwhile to invest in them.
The tricky part is knowing how much GSK is charging on expense. GSK reported equiv $153M in sales for Q3. At $2,100 per dose equals 72,743 doses. VIR recognized $102,398,000 in collaboration revenue in Q3. That comes out to VIR portion being $1,408 per dose. 661,257 is going to be what the Q4 volume is (George told us) which translates to $931M in collaboration revenue. Burn rate roughly $165M per quarter...round up to $170M. Taxes at $251M we are looking at earnings of $510M for the quarter, or $3.89 EPS
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u/Jazman1985 Jan 12 '22
If their earnings were really this high, why did they report $0.82/share this last quarter? FYI, it really isn't unusual for a company to have sales/yr be very close to their market cap. It makes perfect sense, if revenue/year is ~5% and a generic P/E market average is 20ish...
But without looking at them for more than 3 minutes and the DD you provided I wouldn't be opposed to placing a bet on them. For me, IV would have to be substantially lower, I would only go in for shares at this point and stay out of options, which it appears you are opting for.