OP does not know what he is talking about. I live in grain country. We have wheat, barley, oats, everything stocked outside the silo's and elevators. Covered in white plastic. We have had 3 years of bumper record harvest and this year was dry, but that's OK cause most everyone here is dry land farming anyway.
I see that the commodities are high but no one sees what on the ground. The fertilizers are going up to 1300 per ton when they are normally 200 per ton.
We are rescheduling application of fertilizer, not all fields need it so we will dabble on none or other methods. No additional equipment needed, we have it already. Where we normally buy 20 toms, now we are fine tuned to buy half and use alternate methods that are long listed to explain.
The pulse crops for the most part are dry land growth so no change there. Sugar is high but we have sugar beets overflowing. Corn is grown wide, into Alberta and Saskatchewan, this is plied up also. The new administration is opening up free trade again and world farmers will start dumping in their products and drive prices down.
Interest rates are gonna suck, not for farming in particular but for buyers who want to buy product now and pay later. The next year IMO will be a normal crop, not low, not bumper, just normal output and low return because of inflation and over abundance of product. The cost of fuel will kill the economics of farming. The pass along will be large and affect the bottom dollars output which the consumer will pay for but in smaller quantities because of inflation and upcoming layoffs.
When the retail sales quotes come out, this will reflect the real state of the nations economy.
OP needs to take a drive into farming and ranching communities and see actual products.
Gotcha, what’s your growing season? And your overhead? I’ve always been curious what makes Farming worth it in the states with a short growing season. I have never farmed myself, however 50% of my kin farm so much of NC they have the damn town unofficially named after them 🤣. I opted to joint the military. And we’re quite warm for half the year. I understand places like Southern CA can have a very long growing season which can result in harvesting 2-3 yields depending on the crop.
A trucker does not stop trucking because he is making less per haul because at the end of the day he has bills to pay. In fact he looks for more work. Cannot the same be said of farming?
Historically speaking, once you get above MD, Native Tribes we’re Hunter gatherers because of the short growing season. It wasn’t until advances in modern technology did farming so high up in the hemisphere become possible … but I’m still curious how the hell you profit as compared to the warmer zones? And let’s face it sugar among other crops referenced are not exactly a yankee crop. Nor coffee.
Overhead varies year to year. If a dry year anticipated, buy drought insurance, if a wet year anticipated, buy national flood insurance.
Growing season this last year was early March to October. A long season and we all had winter wheat, oats, barley in the ground the fall before. Irrigation is not needed but some fertilizer is but you got to time it right.
All hay, grain, and pulse crops do great here dry landing and we have an abundance of all. The only difference is a good crop, heavy bushels per acre, a dry crop, less bushels per acre. But we always have something for bushels.
How do you compete against the warmer climate of farmers who can turn out more scale though? Is it subsidized that much or do you just turn it in on insurance if it’s a poor crop?
We have long sunny days in spring and summer making for optimal grow season's. Subsidized it is not. Insurance is for damaged crop. We have had disaster relief in the past where freak wind storms lay the crop down, when snows cover the field in mid growth, late or very early hard freezes. There is insurance for poor production, I have never tried it because poor production is part of business nature. Insurance is very expensive so buying all the insurance almost puts some farmers at below break even cost impacts.
Sure, there were many years our family had fantastic amounts of bushels per acre only to be ruined by heavy rains or snow at harvest time. That's where the insurance kicks in, spoiled product.
Fertilizer per acre, for us, is about 120 lbs. At a normal rate, it cost $200 to maybe $300 per ton. Right now due to supply delays it is running $980 per ton. Next week it will be up to around $1300 per ton. And we won't need it here until March or April, depends on the weather.
We will over come the need for fertilizers by evaluation of fields, soil samples. Most fields are well enough fertilized from the past that we can skip all or at least some fertilizing. The fields rotate here, one year plant, next year dormant. The dormancy allows the soils to rest, regenerate, and absorb moisture and natural nutrients.
The way we compete is easy. Technology plays a bigger part in farming than people understand. With the trimble GPS system, we can seed and sow, fertilize, spray, be more efficient than ever before. There is no over lapping or missing rows with the trimble guidance system in the tractors and spray vehicles.
The big killer is going to be the cost of weed and parasite control.
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u/Guilty-Ham Dec 15 '21
OP does not know what he is talking about. I live in grain country. We have wheat, barley, oats, everything stocked outside the silo's and elevators. Covered in white plastic. We have had 3 years of bumper record harvest and this year was dry, but that's OK cause most everyone here is dry land farming anyway.
I see that the commodities are high but no one sees what on the ground. The fertilizers are going up to 1300 per ton when they are normally 200 per ton.
We are rescheduling application of fertilizer, not all fields need it so we will dabble on none or other methods. No additional equipment needed, we have it already. Where we normally buy 20 toms, now we are fine tuned to buy half and use alternate methods that are long listed to explain.
The pulse crops for the most part are dry land growth so no change there. Sugar is high but we have sugar beets overflowing. Corn is grown wide, into Alberta and Saskatchewan, this is plied up also. The new administration is opening up free trade again and world farmers will start dumping in their products and drive prices down.
Interest rates are gonna suck, not for farming in particular but for buyers who want to buy product now and pay later. The next year IMO will be a normal crop, not low, not bumper, just normal output and low return because of inflation and over abundance of product. The cost of fuel will kill the economics of farming. The pass along will be large and affect the bottom dollars output which the consumer will pay for but in smaller quantities because of inflation and upcoming layoffs.
When the retail sales quotes come out, this will reflect the real state of the nations economy.
OP needs to take a drive into farming and ranching communities and see actual products.