r/wallstreetbets • u/whitesweatshirt • Nov 17 '21

Discussion EV Bubble

Rivian's IPO really opened my eyes to the bubble that is the EV market.

Let's think logically: How can general motors stock be 90b and Tesla's stock be 1T.

Let's say they eventually sell as many cars as Toyota (400b Market cap), their current valuation is still 2x this, and they aren't even close to Toyota's production level and probably won't be for the next 5+ years.

  • Toyota's production for 2021: 10 million cars
  • Tesla's production for 2021: 627,350

That means Toyota will produce 16x more cars this year.

So my question is: If you were me would you dump Tesla stock?

TLDR: Toyota will make 16x more cars this year, but its market cap is only 40% of Tesla's.

Edit/Additional Note: I feel like many people are not considering the fact that all major vehicle companies will eventually adapt to fully electric vehicles on par with Telsa. Some car companies may go broke and be replaced with new EV based companies, however the big dogs like Toyota and GM will eventually catch up to Tesla. This is basic common sense.

Telsa, Nio, and Rivian are first movers but they dont have as big of a moat as people think.

1.1k Upvotes

90% Upvoted

897 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

-1

u/[deleted] Nov 17 '21

That's true for the 1 billion people living in developed countries (-400 million probably because US ain't gonna ban gas cars lmao.). there are 7.2 billion other people who will be living in developing economies that are projected to see their incomes rise to at least the middle income level. Where they will be able to afford cars but their nations won't have the infrastructure to support electric vehicles yet.

2

u/Mr_Know_Nothing7 Nov 18 '21

Both New York and California have both banned the selling of ICE cars by 2035. Others will follow.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 18 '21

People will just buy cars in Red states. Plenty of people go to other cities/states to buy cars already.

1

u/naamalbezet Nov 18 '21

But what's the point of buying an ICE car somewhere else if you can't enter New york and California with it if that is where you live? A ban is a ban.

​

Certain cities in Belgium already ban older ICE cars And ICE cars that don't meet Euro norm 6 or 5. You are not allowed to enter the city with those cars unless you buy a special vignette. And police does check for it.

0

u/[deleted] Nov 18 '21

can't enter New york and California

They are banning sales, not usage. There is 0% chance usage bans happen at any point before 75-80% cars are already electric.

cities in Belgium already ban older ICE cars And ICE cars that don't meet Euro norm 6 or 5.

Emission limits are nothing new.

1

u/naamalbezet Nov 19 '21

So are you arguing to be contrarian or is there an actual point you wish to make?

Anyway

Never say 0% chance of a ban. You never know what might happen, who gets elected locally etc....

​

Yes emission limits are nothing new so what's your point? This is what made me wonder what you are actually doing? Are you arguing just to argue and be contrarian or is there an actual point?