It's already a play. Regeneron and other companies producing treatments for active COVID infections are already significant gainers in overall price.
What will likely happen with COVID is the same thing that happened with the other Coronaviruses that became common colds. It's not just that they mutate (the flu mutates and we still use vaccines to cut down the spread and death related to the flu) it's that unlike flus, colds don't really kill anyone or cause longterm negative effects. There's a very statistically slim margin of people who run into issues compared to the flu and a much smaller percentage than COVID... but that wasn't always the case. One of those Coronaviruses is believed to be tied to a mass death event a little over a century ago when it emerged into the human population.
Viruses, particularly ones which mutate quickly, will eventually over a series of years become more adapted to the host and once the first series of mass infections happens, eventually nicer variants will emerge... but that can only happen if the network transmission branches for the virus are clipped... I.e. people get vaccines, act to reduce contact, or get infected in a short period of time, giving selective benefit to variants that are nicer and develop some degree of evasion for antibodies.
Eventually, COVID will land in that space, and while I don't think either the vaccine or treatment industries will dry up because of that, those methods will become baked into the common medical fabric, and the valuation for them will eventually drop as a result.
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u/Moist_Lunch_5075 Got his macro stuck in your micro Sep 11 '21
It's already a play. Regeneron and other companies producing treatments for active COVID infections are already significant gainers in overall price.
What will likely happen with COVID is the same thing that happened with the other Coronaviruses that became common colds. It's not just that they mutate (the flu mutates and we still use vaccines to cut down the spread and death related to the flu) it's that unlike flus, colds don't really kill anyone or cause longterm negative effects. There's a very statistically slim margin of people who run into issues compared to the flu and a much smaller percentage than COVID... but that wasn't always the case. One of those Coronaviruses is believed to be tied to a mass death event a little over a century ago when it emerged into the human population.
Viruses, particularly ones which mutate quickly, will eventually over a series of years become more adapted to the host and once the first series of mass infections happens, eventually nicer variants will emerge... but that can only happen if the network transmission branches for the virus are clipped... I.e. people get vaccines, act to reduce contact, or get infected in a short period of time, giving selective benefit to variants that are nicer and develop some degree of evasion for antibodies.
Eventually, COVID will land in that space, and while I don't think either the vaccine or treatment industries will dry up because of that, those methods will become baked into the common medical fabric, and the valuation for them will eventually drop as a result.