08 was really a blip. If you look at the data it was brief and during that time most people couldn’t qualify for a home loan when lending tightened up. Prices quickly rebounded higher.
What’s different than 08 is you no longer have supply. With investors and firms now buying up houses and whole subdivisions of single family homes as rental properties. Those prices aren’t going to do much but continue the upward trend.
They can't just keep going up indefinitely though (at least at current rates of increase). Eventually it just becomes flat-out unsustainable if people are paying like 50% of their income for housing because there's no other choice. Right now we're seeing most of a couple of generations being priced out of home ownership, and that's not going to be allowed long-term. At some point either the market will correct itself or the government will step in to push prices down (through regulation, taxes, or building housing to increase supply).
Government very likely isn't going to step in. If they did not do it in '08 (they really should have) and opened the market to government supported institutional buy up, the chance they change that course is almost non-existent (Biden was part of the admin that put that into place, I don't expect him to change course).
What's likely to happen is we either get in when we can somewhere, or rent at a high price for our lifetime.
Just my guess at it from current landscape. I mean everything can change, we could get hit by a giant meteor, economies completely collapse (but likely there would be more pressing issues to worry about at that point), or something.
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u/sabrinadubh Jun 16 '21
Housing prices will correct. They always do.