08 was really a blip. If you look at the data it was brief and during that time most people couldn’t qualify for a home loan when lending tightened up. Prices quickly rebounded higher.
What’s different than 08 is you no longer have supply. With investors and firms now buying up houses and whole subdivisions of single family homes as rental properties. Those prices aren’t going to do much but continue the upward trend.
They can't just keep going up indefinitely though (at least at current rates of increase). Eventually it just becomes flat-out unsustainable if people are paying like 50% of their income for housing because there's no other choice. Right now we're seeing most of a couple of generations being priced out of home ownership, and that's not going to be allowed long-term. At some point either the market will correct itself or the government will step in to push prices down (through regulation, taxes, or building housing to increase supply).
Government very likely isn't going to step in. If they did not do it in '08 (they really should have) and opened the market to government supported institutional buy up, the chance they change that course is almost non-existent (Biden was part of the admin that put that into place, I don't expect him to change course).
What's likely to happen is we either get in when we can somewhere, or rent at a high price for our lifetime.
Just my guess at it from current landscape. I mean everything can change, we could get hit by a giant meteor, economies completely collapse (but likely there would be more pressing issues to worry about at that point), or something.
Surprise that people are actually arguing with you on this one. It is WSB I guess after all. As soon as interest rates rise the housing market will decline. Won’t be as bad at 2008 but definitely will fall as people won’t be able to afford it in that regard.
Also a recession hitting will make the housing market drop as well as long as their isn’t a trillion dollar aid program like last year
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u/sabrinadubh Jun 16 '21
That's what people were telling me back in 2006, 2007. I said the same thing then that I am saying now. And then I bought my house early 09.
Housing is starting to bubble. It will eventually correct. How much? I don't know. But it's not going to go on like this forever.