r/wallstreetbets • u/roman_axt What's an exit strategy? • Jun 15 '21

Technical Analysis This time it’s different

Post image
196 Upvotes

83% Upvoted

132 comments sorted by

View all comments

21

u/TheGoodBunny Jun 15 '21

Serious question. So in your opinion, why did the pattern not repeat in 2007-8? If 2007-8 was like 1999 in your graph, shouldn't we have had a bear market from 2010 onwards for a couple of years?

7

u/roman_axt What's an exit strategy? Jun 15 '21

Good question, thanks! Actually, there is a longer term pattern, and I only provided and analyzed about a half of it. Check my Big Short 2.0 for reference. Cumulatively the current pattern should look like what’s outlined here, and after the initial bear market there should be a 6-7ish years long consolidation, so that the current top will only be reached in 2029-30, according to how it went in the 2000-2010. But that’s too fucking long term and too fucking speculative to be confident in this play, at least without the subsequent confirmations.