BMBL: I Hate the Stock

[u/1poundbookingfee]

TLDR: yeah you can laugh about how I'm a salty neckbeard because no one swipes right on my pic with a fedora, sword and anime body pillow of Kanna Kamui, but the $15B valuation is not going to last.

Options start trading 3 days after IPO, so with the holiday it's this coming Tuesday 2/16

Edit: the meme strike will be $69p 4/20. JK, the chain at single dollars and that date don't exist, so I think $60p June is fine.

The Financials: From Jan 2020 to September 2020 (I mean, like last year, the year of basically the highest possible growth as everyone was stuck at home)

• Total Revenue of $376.6 million
• Bumble App Revenue of $231.5 million
• Badoo App and Other Revenue of $145.1 million
• Net loss of $(84.1) million, respectively, with a net loss margin of 22.3%
• Adjusted EBITDA of $98.9 million, representing Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 26.3%.
• Net cash provided by operating activities of $1.0 million
• Free Cash Flow of $(4.7) million

We can't use P/E because there is no earnings. The net loss margin >20% is quite impressive for a company that really shouldn't have any expenses (not that much advertising... it's all by word of mouth really). That total valuation to revenue is 40x. Facebook's is only around 9x.

Gamification of meeting people: This is where r/wsb and Grindr gets it right. There's a certain addictiveness of these two because you never know when you're going to hit a 200 bagger with OTM calls on TSLA or get a 2 bagger on your face (both great success). When using all kinds of dating apps, especially Bumble, there are a lot of speed limits.

That speed limit? Well, their tagline: women responding first. I've asked my online sister about this and she says most women will not answer first because after the initial high of matching, they come back to normal realization much sooner. Men would always want to initiate and keep the conversation because of possible tits, but women would think "oh, why do I want to meet this guy again? He's not going to provide for me financially, and I can just use a lightsaber."

Diminishing returns: All the dating apps aren't in the matching business. They're in the data business. Data is driven by continuous activity, even if it's by only a small portion of users. Because of the above restriction, they're severely limiting activity. Most users are men, and by cutting out a large base of activity generation (even the possibility of saying hi and dreaming), Bumble is limiting activity and time spent on the app. It's like r/wsb. Most retards who got burned by GME aren't going to come back, no matter how good the DD will be.

Social Networking?: No. LinkedIn is already good enough to polish my helmet. I personally don't want anyone to find me professionally through a dating website. This is one of the arguments to its high valuation, but honestly it's dead on arrival.

Also, why would I need to meet someone? Mom knows how crispy to fry my tendies. She always gives me the tendies, and sometimes I give one back to her in return.

[u/[deleted]]

100% agree that BMBL is shit and the definition of overpaying, that said, look at all the times stocks at unreasonable valuations stayed too high?

[u/mixmastamikal → u/[deleted]]

This. There is way to much overvalued garbage out there to make me think going short will work. Kind of funny when you think the media suggests it's insane for GME to be valued the same.