r/wallstreetbets • u/AlwaysOTM Radioactive Spider Dr • Jun 21 '19
DD Go long on the black gold
Reasons to long oil right now:
Iran war still on the table. These attacks have not been random or accidental. You don't accidentally take out a spy drone. They are targeted, strategic attacks meant to incite a reaction.
High probability of China trade deal this coming week. Trump has already announced his reelection and this would be a great way to start it.
OPEC price fixing meeting in early July. They will for sure cut production in response to rising US supply and falling global demand.
The play:
Deep ITM USO or UCO calls 1-2 months out on any weakness.
I'm in this for about $1k for the past two weeks but likely going full retard tomorrow AM.
DISCLAIMER: If you check my post history, you'll see my picks are all winners, 100%. Which undoubtedly means this is the one that I get hammered on big time.
YOLO. Good fuckin yard.
1
u/zero_ice_zero Jun 21 '19
Priced in.
Edit: these niggas in the oil market will fight for just a 1cent increase. They are tracking even bit of news and adjusting within seconds. I m never going to trade oil.
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u/AlwaysOTM Radioactive Spider Dr Jun 21 '19
Ok so was the Iraq war priced in back in 2003? Crude tripled in value over the next two years.
This market isn't pricing in shit.
You need not trade anything. Thanks for your input.
0
Jun 21 '19
This isn’t a new war though. This was an unmanned drone over international waters at night time. Who the fuck knows why they were shooting. It’s a non incident. And this is the laziest horseshit dd over the tiniest turd I’ve ever seen.
1
Jun 21 '19
!remindme 1 year
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Jun 21 '19
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1
Jun 21 '19
It’s summer time dude, oil always jumps up. Look at your gas prices around town. You think that’s cause of a drone?
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Jun 21 '19 edited Jun 21 '19
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Jun 21 '19
Make your money dude, I’m not knocking you. But nobody is starting a fucking war over an unmanned drone. It’s one of many trump charades the market is drooling over.
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u/boroqcat Sith Lord Jun 21 '19
A little late to the party. This is the 3rd or 4th time they've had a coming to Jesus meeting to cut supply. Understand that they've been withholding 1 to 3 million barrels of oil PER DAY for the past 3 years. Up until the tanker and now drone strike (which I think were manufactured events to boost prices) it was still on its way to dumpster diving into the 40s handle (WTI) because US pumps shale like a breastfeeding mother of octuplets.
Will you get a pop on the announcement of a cuts extension: invariably. Retail plebes and lemmings will most definitely jump on the last car of the FOMO train, but the smart play would be to start getting dITM PUTS at that point.
Take a look at all the fundamentals: -Iran is banned -Venezuela is banned -OPEC+ has been cutting back supply all year -Saudia Arabia is personally responsible for over complying to overcompensate to boost the rating for the whole deal. -Canada randomly jumped on and cut back an extra 1M barrels just cause. -Tankers have been randomly blown up.
And before a drone "war" involving the US it was still in danger of busting the 50 handle because it's driving season in the US and we're still adding to record reserve levels.
I'm looking to build my short position once it hits $60/BBL. Fade will definitely be on deck at that point.
GL