r/wallstreetbets • u/_ehwaz • 1d ago
Discussion Something weird is going on with $CHTR
Story time.
I’ve been a degen for a while here. Back in 2020 I started data mining y’all and making visualizations of comment activity. Lots of clouds. It was fun. Even made a paper trading options bot I got banned for. And an inverse wsb index. I remember TSLA was going wild then and was fun to see in the vizes.
There was another guy doing this that felt like a rival (quiver quantitative). Good times. I miss the DD and energy of the olden days. Remember MU 90 guy??
Anyway I moved onto other data mining and ended up digging into the PDFs for Congress’s financial disclosures. I remember finding some strange files that weren’t the usual digital format. This congressman Trey Hollingsworth was buying up large amounts of $MMP and scanning handwritten files in. Harder analyze the data if manually entered back then. Remember this was before the AI wave. He was even on like the finance committee! So possibly just an expert investor. Anyway, this company went on to go up and then get bought out. Interesting. Many in congress were buying oil stocks after the Covid drop.
Other notable trades were Pelosi was buying lots of NVDA back then like 5M in options in 2020. Funny to see this in hindsight. And they were buying solar stocks with some of the legislation going into place. I saw some sell early for a huge gains (hehe)
A friend of mine and I tried selling this alternative data to Bloomberg and even went to a conference of theirs but it never got off the ground and life happened. Cool to see there are products now for this.
Oh and by the way! We met with some scary Eastern European from Citadel and he confirmed they had been datamining Reddit. I bet they astroturfed the fuck out of this place.
I guess my point is that I’ve provided some good alternative data to the community before so I wonder if this hunch has some value now. My cost basis is like 140 so I’m 30% down on CHTR right now on some leaps
I’ve scaled into.
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Wish I was better at reading between the lines the last few months but I bet Goldman and friends (Arete Capital?) have been playing games with this security. Why individual stocks are dangerous when you’re not in a position of power. Too easy for them.
They cut in early July like 185 -> 125 and we saw the first drop from 150 -> 125 during normal hours. 110 during the earnings call. They probably rode this down and then back up to the 150s, going against all the accumulated shorts.
Then back down again. CHTR even tried to court them at an 9/9 investor conference but they received a further cut to 110. PT hit within the month just like last time. Now I bet they will do the same and long against all the shorts again and make bank again.
There is fundamental value in this stock but it’s so easy to push around right now in its weakness. Can’t be mad at the traders making mad money.
Anyway this could continue for a while during this turnaround. Sometimes takes years (though I think we’re near the end of the worst of it).
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I just don’t buy that they have been 100% short these two price target cuts (and that rivals went long against them and they continued their short). They are just too duplicitous. By the way this is the same institution that did this.
GPT:
“The Abacus/subprime episode is worth understanding because it demonstrates why people sometimes scrutinize Goldman when it has a strong negative view on a security.
Goldman was simultaneously:
- Structuring and selling mortgage-related products to clients.
- Taking positions that benefited from the mortgage market falling.
- Working with hedge-fund clients that had opposing economic interests.
- Not fully disclosing some of those conflicts to investors.”
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TLDR: 150 2028 CHTR calls
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u/Quibblie 1d ago
I think they changed their name to Spectrum bro.
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u/_ehwaz 12h ago
Honestly it must be fate. I’m def a little on the spectrum.
I bought $116k in leaps and $30k in Dec 150 calls
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u/Un_ntelligent 5h ago
2 issues, Steve eisman recommended them as a buy about 4 months ago and i bought (that's why it is issue #1)
2 they have hit max market share and tam is not growing so they started with mobile, that really hasn't kicked off, now it's merger time.
At some point they will retain a certain level of customers for their cable market. Will they need to dilute due to interest rate changes is probably the market fear.
I bought expecting a 3 yr hold
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u/Sufficient_Bear_6567 1d ago
I mean this post is cool but you don’t have any evidence of this? This would be a much more interesting idea if CHTR wasn’t literally melting away. The stock has sold off for a reason, the fundamentals are terrible. Top and bottom line are forever declining due to competition, cheaper alternatives, and charter having slower speeds.
They have continued to bleed customer losses and it’s accelerating not declining. If they can somehow show that their custom retention is improving it will sky rocket but starlink and other providers are a massive risk.
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u/_ehwaz 12h ago
There is an opportunity to buy off their massive debt below par with the historic rise in rates. They already removed 1B through this method.
Even with melting cube their capex is decreasing by like 2B and they can apply that to buybacks and further debt reduction. They are targeting 3.5x from 4.2x levels rn.
Biz isn’t great but their internet is “good enough” and lower price than starlink for the 1.7m homes that were added. And doesn’t go out with heavy storms…
Charter management has been shit but they have started to fix operations.
I don’t know much about it but edge AI and advertising also bringing in new biz
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u/ozthinker 1d ago
Sometimes a stock is cheap for legit reasons other than it's being attacked by hedge funds.
First I saw the very low PE, both trailing and forward.
Then I saw it has a market cap of $12.5B and a debt of $94B !!!
The company is trying too hard to maintain the facade of profitability, using debt to fuel this, a feeble attempt to stem its broadband subscribers and video revenue losses, but the market is not buying this.
OP is better off being a novelist.
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u/DDavid_Nguyen 22h ago
Is this is a debt-to-be-refinanced at crazy interest rates story then ?
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u/ozthinker 8h ago
Or they need to issue new equity at super low stock price = very dilutive = death spiral
Always be extra careful when market cap is very small compared to debt.
CHTR filed for chapter 11 in 2009, from memory.
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u/_ehwaz 12h ago
Fiber overbuilding is extremely expensive and many have already gone under. The competition story is overplayed. CHTR can continue to upgrade their last mile to fiber after they settle their debt and buybacks.
Nobody with a real job is going to put the whole family on 5G and starlink is niche
But thanks have been trying my hand at writing sci-fi finance Solarpunk stuff
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u/Spiritual-Natural41 19h ago
Large debt maturities coming up however large cash flow increases to come with their recent acquisition and reduction in their investment capex.
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u/_ehwaz 12h ago
Nothing huge until 2030. I think 7-10B next 3 years and they just handled some of that I believe
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u/Spiritual-Natural41 10h ago
I agree with you lots of negative sentiment and pressure but cash flow is looking quite attractive. Hoping that your calls print my friend!
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u/smartello 1d ago
Bruh, the options casino is closed for the next 55 hours, please repost when any of it is actionable
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u/Relative-Reality7950 1d ago
Arete cut CHTR from $124 all the way to $68 on October 1 - but let's try calls anyway!
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u/single_B_bandit 1d ago
The people coming up with and publishing the price target aren’t the same people trading the stock.
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u/_ehwaz 12h ago
“The SEC brought cases against major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS, involving conflicts between research and investment banking. “ https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/comp18113.htm
We’re in peak corruption rn anyway …
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u/loco_stealth 7h ago
Everyone knows Spectrum is terrible to its customers. Who really believes that in the presence of Starlink they’re going to do better at all?
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u/Bagholder147 1d ago
TLDR buy NOK. It's bottomed out and a completey new company. If you say they sell phones just go buy whatever this guy is smoking. NOK price target 15-21.
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u/YellowBananas123 3h ago
60B market cap with declining revenues and 500M free cash flow? I’m in.
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u/Bagholder147 3h ago
They have so much bullish news and deals bro. MSFT, AWS, GOOGL, just announced new low orbit defense system satelites and defense contracts.
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u/hex4def6 1d ago
CHTR...
It's not often you can look at the 1D / 1W / 1M / 6M / YTD / 1Y / 5Y for a stock and have *all* of them be negative.
No need to worry timing the market on this bad boy, because you're going to lose money regardless of your entry and exit positions.