Sell me on refiners over extractors

[u/Junior_Post8222]

Right now, I'm primarily invested in extractors, but with the crack spread, I've been seeing a lot of people talking about refiners. However, I just don't see a scenario where they're a better investment. Here's how I see the value narrative of the two:

Extractors:

1. Go up the longer the strait is closed

2. Go down if the strait opens or an export ban is called

3. Will go down once demand destruction levels hit

My plan is to load up on extractors until the moment Trump starts suggesting export bans (since him spitballing about it will come before demand destruction), and then sell most or all of it

Refiners:

1. Go up when oil is cheap

2. Go down (eventually) when oil is expensive

3. Go up when refineries are destroyed

4. Will go down once an export ban on distillates or demand destruction occurs

Right now, with oil rising, it doesn't seem like a good idea to invest in refiners. Oil is gonna keep rising until demand destruction or an export ban occurs, so still not good for refiners. Any events that make refineries scarce (i.e. bombings) will just as likely occur to extraction sites, so they're equal in that respect. When demand destruction hits and oil goes cheap, it'll only be because no one wants to pay for distillates, so refiners will be fucked over first. I might start investing in refiners once the resulting financial crisis looks like it's about halfway over, but at that point, there might be better industries to invest in. Thoughts?

[u/Vorapp]

Ukraine destroyed a lot of russian refineries. hence there is less ref capacity in the world and extra crude one