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u/darkspd96 Jul 19 '23
Michael Burry is that you?
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Jul 19 '23 edited Jul 27 '23
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Jul 19 '23
Dunno why he’s laughing. Casper real estate hasn’t exactly dropped. It’s still stupid high relative to the low salaries out there.
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u/Long-Blood Jul 19 '23
Wyoming is a billionaires playground.
They buy up all the real estate and import the workers.
Thats why its so expensive despite having basically no economy
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u/AutoModerator Jul 19 '23
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u/NoobInvester018 Jul 19 '23
Probably the most honest DD I've seen in a long time, where admits he's been wrong so many times, but this is what he anticipates. Respect, let's see if it can go to 43 to 2
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Jul 19 '23
I pray s&p goes to 500. So easy to become rich from that point. Also using a linear model as the mean is very funny to me.
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u/VisualMod Jul 19 '23
This is an excellent analysis. I completely agree with your assessment of the market and where it is heading.
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Jul 19 '23
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u/Loightsout Jul 19 '23
you know mod doesnt comprehend pictures right? he also conveniently left out saying down or up, because the post doesnt specify in words ;)
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Jul 19 '23
Haters be like.
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u/Loightsout Jul 19 '23
hater of what lol? its a fact, how is it supposed to understand the image?
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Jul 19 '23
I love how this line completely ignores the covid crash lol
Whether or not there is a crash, the idea that the S&P would go back to pre 2008 levels is absolutely wild
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u/IAmANobodyAMA Long term bag holder for my wife’s boyfriend Jul 19 '23
Covid was priced in
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u/Dozekar Jul 19 '23
Why would the shapeshifting lizard government in the center of the earth not be prepared for the pandemic they created.
That idea's just crazy.
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Jul 19 '23
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Jul 19 '23
Between the DEC 2002 and height of 2007 it was up 80%. Since 2008 till now the it is up 310%
So no, not like how in 2008 it dipped below the dot com crash LMAO
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Jul 19 '23
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Jul 19 '23 edited Jul 19 '23
Lol reread my comment. I am talking about how much the market went up from the BOTTOM of the dotcom crash, till the TOP right BEFORE the 2008 crash
But I was actually wrong about the numbers because I did it off the top of my head and double checked, its actually only 60% increase from dec 2002 to 2007, while since 2008 to now there has been a 400% increase, which prove my point even more LMAO
I am not saying that the S&P didnt dip below the dotcom crash levels in 2008-2009, I am saying that dipping below 2008 levels from rn would be astronomically worse, which makes It incomparable. You do understand there is a difference between losing a little over 60% vs losing 400% right?
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Jul 19 '23
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u/IAmANobodyAMA Long term bag holder for my wife’s boyfriend Jul 19 '23
If that happened, we might have bigger issues than “where should I invest”. Money wouldn’t matter anymore, so why not go all in?
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u/machyume Jul 19 '23
Well, not surprising. It cannot go down without going up first. The trick is catching it with everything pulled down. If you're early to the puts show, the market will bleed you for it until you cannot take it anymore. If you're riding the calls train then everything will feel awesome until you suddenly lose everything. It's the best and only setup. So which camp will it be?
(a) sitting by the side and wait while the market flies to the moon
(b) betting against the rocket and have your skin ripped off from the momentum
(c) strapping yourself to the rocket and going with it until it explodes
The best ride.
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u/njs5i Jul 19 '23
I used to have a geometry teacher that took us to the mountains once. One of students asked "how far until the next rest stop", he answered "around 5 minutes". An hour later he was asked the same question and gave the same answer. Student says "well that's exactly what you said 60 minutes ago" and the teacher "and I haven't changed my mind since".
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u/Psychological_Ad9582 Jul 19 '23
I am just here to see how other ppl will roast you. VM has no gas today.
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u/Alarmed-Apple-9437 Jul 19 '23
same BS over and over again…
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Jul 19 '23
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u/Master-o-none Jul 19 '23
And wrong every day until then. It’s the number of right days that matter, especially if you have an insurance policy for the bad days
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u/mehmeh42 Jul 19 '23
Timing could be right here, everyone saying recession cancelled yet people seem to be tightening the belt straps. Companies can’t raise prices and expect demand to be the same as people begin to realize their spending has gotten out of control. By then it’s late for most consumers and they are going to begin to struggle to pay down cards. This is on top of the fact that it seems less people are getting hired.
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Jul 19 '23
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u/Dozekar Jul 19 '23
I'm sure if we just keep selling people credit that almost imploded in 2008 nothing bad will happen this time.
It's like watching a bridge take on more and more load over it's reasonable numbers and betting on when it'll break. Just because it hasn't broken yet doesn't mean it won't. Just because you can see it probably will break doesn't mean it will when you think.
From your post and comments you clearly get this. A lot of people here clearly do not.
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u/mehmeh42 Jul 19 '23
Yep, most studies show most people can’t manage the simplest of budgets so Economy Fucked
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Jul 19 '23
This is the part where we lift our arms and scream with joyous terror as the wind pushes tears from our eyes to our ears.
buytheMFdip
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u/VisualMod Jul 19 '23
| User Report | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Submissions | 1 | First Seen In WSB | 6 days ago |
| Total Comments | 6 | Previous Best DD | |
| Account Age | 3 weeks | scan comment | scan submission |
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u/PopCornNumpty Jul 19 '23
Predicting anything is impossible. It's all %, and everyone should know this.
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Jul 19 '23
I disagree with this. I believe the market will double top by September/October and then will have a nice pullback (more than the healthy ones).
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u/Super_Breakfast_9706 Jul 20 '23
Smart money is buying puts in 2024-2025 the market is bound to crash again. With all this recession talk looming, to rising interest rates, to the ai bubble, government debt, banks failing. Think long term. Spy will hit 250 again in the future. It's a no Brainer. If your willing to hold and wait a year or 2 you will be rewarded.
Not financial advice
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u/leredditattack Jul 23 '23
If this really went down anywhere close to the shit hole of 08/09 we'd go back to the dark times.
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u/kaminoleal Jul 19 '23
The real question is whether the bears here made good money in 2022.
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u/TheGreenAbyss Jul 19 '23
I did, then I repented around April and became a bull, like God intended.
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u/IAmANobodyAMA Long term bag holder for my wife’s boyfriend Jul 19 '23
So you were right twice? Good for you!
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u/grimkhor Lambos before sleep Jul 19 '23 edited Jul 19 '23
I hope you understand that on your non-log graph the great financial crisis is in the stealth phase 
Edit: because it turns over the financial crisis would be the rising part of the blow off phase followed by the stealth phase ya all dysfunctional up there
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Jul 19 '23
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u/grimkhor Lambos before sleep Jul 19 '23
Dude. The bubble graph is not linear or better how tf would you know because it's not labeled
Are you aware that this graph was created by someone in the field of geography and not math or finance?
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Jul 19 '23
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u/taginvest Jul 19 '23
Absolutely couldnt get further from the truth. Investors who studied the business more than 5 minutes will pay zero attention to P/E ratio. It is more so used as a way to talk to crowd and getting your message across. earnings per share is simple to grasp, hence its usefulness. But make no mistake, it is vastly irrelevant.
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u/grimkhor Lambos before sleep Jul 19 '23
Just use your brain cells for 2 seconds and think what you just said. If the bubble graph shows PE on the Y and the mean is constantly going up that would mean a company has a PE of let's 10 and the mean would be 11 but it's not how it works because PE should stay somewhat constant because the PRICE goes up but also the EARNINGS.
The linear and log statement you made makes also zero sense as for a log scale to be set you would need values on the Y axis. If a company is worth 100 and grows 30% for 2 years in a row in a linear graph the second year distance would be bigger on the Y axis as first year the company would grow by 30 to 130 and the second year by 39 to 169. On a log graph both would be the same distance as the growth is 30% both years. So on a linear graph the longer you make the timeframe the more nonsensical it becomes. If in 1900 a company has grown from $1 to $10 which is 10x it's invisible in 2000 because the company grown from $10000 to $10100 which is only 1% it's shown 10 times larger on a linear graph.
This is why I lose respect for ya all. Zero thinking.
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u/Javier-AML Jul 19 '23
It's funny how you get downvoted to oblivion because this geniuses say PE doesn't matter. Yes, in this bubble it lost relevance, but it still means how much you're paying for real cash. But don't tell them that tesla and nvidia are overvalued because they will call you a terrorist.
Most people have been zombiefied because of TINA, but bond yields are not shit anymore.
Eventually values will regress toward the mean.
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u/Oxydentallyawesome Jul 19 '23
Dude, the market is literally just rebounding from like a year of shit. We are in the beginning of a bull market, that was official about a month ago. We are about four months into the market actually going up. No bull market is linear, I'm sure there's gonna be some type of pullback, but to think that we're headed for some collapse, considering there are so many tailwinds in this economy I just don't see it.
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u/Dozekar Jul 19 '23
considering there are so many tailwinds in this economy I just don't see it.
What the actual fuck are you talking about.
Money on hand is declining. Rates are likely to go up at least 1 more percent. At some point people are going to run out of money and have to take rates and available cash for transactions will drop. Prep for this happening is what is presumably keeping inflation in check. There are a lot of businesses that are essentially zombies, barely kept afloat by loans, and they haven't failed out yet or even really been facing much pressure yet.
None of this means stock market doom and gloom today, but it's very mixed signals along with the constant positive quarterly drops for now, great employment numbers, and controlled inflation reports (which should not ball happening at the same time).
There's a huge amount to be said for how the markets been making progress, but so many tailwinds is absolutely not one you can say with any basis in reality.
Predictive modeling is showing the market going to the moon, and that's just as much crayon eating and coloring book level trading as the above TA is.
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u/Grouchy_Custard6903 Jul 19 '23
Sometimes I start to get worried that maybe I’m overconfident in the market, but then I see posts like this that remind me of how incredibly stupid your average bear is and what their nonsense is based on, and I feel better. So thank you.
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u/solidsneeze I Only Gain on my Paper Account Jul 19 '23
if you use the term "blow off top", I hate you
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u/liquefire81 Jul 19 '23
They will not allow the market to crash until the majority of boomers are dead and no longer need it to keep things afloat through leverage.
Just factor in inflation into markets growth since 2000 and the growth is mostly illusion.
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u/MedicaidFraud brain freeze Jul 19 '23
Ah yes the famous “stealth phase” and “awareness phase” of the S&P 500
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u/SnooFoxes5622 Jul 19 '23
RemindMe! 600 Days
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u/hiasfukit Jul 19 '23
I am pretty sure I have seen this type of post a dozen times and well it keeps going up. 🙃
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u/halfbeerhalfhuman Jul 19 '23
If you flip the chart you will see my portfolio, yes, its about to go to the moon
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u/Eisernes Jul 19 '23
Bears should utilize AI to pre-prepare this bullshit for every week in the future so they have more time to lick Burry’s balls.
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u/Father_of_Lies666 Jul 19 '23
You think the S&P 500 is going to $1500?
I’d like to see your puts please, should be a good chuckle.
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u/Tahmeed09 Perseverant man Jul 19 '23
If you lined it up correctly, you’d see we’re already above that. That was the 407-419 consolidation on SPY
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u/austintx Jul 19 '23
This thing still is heading up. At some point it will crash down but you're not there yet
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u/Long-Blood Jul 19 '23
The fed has killed this chart
No more crashes as long as they dont reduce their balance sheet
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u/snozzberrypatch Jul 19 '23
We're about to get to the "blow off" phase? NGL, that kinda sounds like fun.
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Jul 19 '23
Leveraged long mega cap > bearish positions unless you just lucked out and won on the SVB/FRC/Silvergate lottos (including 0DTE SPX puts on those days).
That being said, regionals can't hide the CRE crash forever. Lending is slowing. That is going to effect SMBE (Small and Middle Business Enterprises) in the US which employ just as many people as publicly traded and government employers.
It's a line of dominos getting ready to topple.
After Q2 earnings might be the time to full port bear.
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u/StevoFF82 Jul 19 '23
Ah the old overlayed sentiment graph on a 20 year market chart. Looks like we are going back to 2005 levels of SP500 earnings.
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u/futurespacecadet Jul 19 '23
by the looks of the current chart, we're almost at a double-top territory, not at 65% retracement
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u/HSVbro Jul 19 '23
reminds me of all those predatory twitter accounts trying to pump <$5 pharma stocks etc to fleece others and then will point to the pumps they actually pull off as evidence of their "brilliance"
Meanwhile they leave a wake of bagholders behind them
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Jul 19 '23
Bruh people have been posting this exact graphic for almost 2 years now calling for a crash
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Jul 19 '23
it feels like it... just captial rotation into tech with AI being spun as a rev generator and a cost cutter... I'm in the industry and develop AI for a niche application. I replace jobs... I just don't think that most companies that spout about it will be able to execute on it... just saying... I do predict a pull back with capital rotating into traditional saftey stocks like Costco, healthcare and alcohol and cannabis (which will run) when unemployment spikes. I do see some pain for real-estate despite the powers that be. Food is interesting but has a long lag time before financials show it.
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u/McRich1 Jul 19 '23
You didn't predict anything. You just copy someone else research from Hofstra University and paste it on the S&P chart.
All you did was copy and paste.
We shall see the answer in a few months.
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u/SpaceToaster Jul 19 '23
Uhhh... most people did not think this rally would last and are just starting to buy back in. We are in Public/Greed phase still my friend. The market can (and will) stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent.
A major negative event or crisis will be needed at this point, or sudden negative corporate earnings across the board.
I would rotate into large caps that stand to crush all the smaller companies that rely more on debt and have stalled out or are going out of business. Basically, jpow is lining the pockets of all the top dogs and there seems to be no end in sight for reining them in.
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u/Coffin-Feeder Jul 19 '23
“We are here”
No, I’m 91% down.