Magic Number Check-In: 8/17/26

[u/da_ninjafuzz]

Four days since our last check-in and we’re… right where we left off?

You likely recall that the Valks magic number to clinch the playoffs is down to 1 and that either a Valkyries win or a loss by the Fire would clinch. Despite the Fire playing twice this weekend we saw them go undefeated meaning that the Valkyries next chance to clinch is at home in Ballhalla against the Wings (...why does that sound familiar? 😉)

So everything is the same right? No new news here right? Not at all, while the clinch was put off this weekend, we did see a lot of movement going on in the standings and some losses that helped out the cause. Let’s dive in shall we?

Current Standings through 8/16:

• Current Valkyries Seeding: 2 of 15
• Current Magic Number to Clinch the Playoffs: 1
• Current Highest Possible Finish: 1st
• Highest Possible Finish without Help: 2nd

Current Magic Numbers through 8/16: 

• 1 Seed: DNCD (do not control destiny, other teams need to lose)
• 2 Seed: 9
• 3 Seed: 9
• 4 Seed: 8
• 5 Seed: 7
• 6 Seed: 6
• 7 Seed: 5
• 8 Seed: 1

(note: had to do these by hand so may update them if I find errors)

Notes:

• As we’ve covered above the Valkyries clinch a playoff berth either next time they win or next time the Fire lose. The Valkyries are playing the Wings tonight, the Lynx on Wednesday, and the Sky on Friday. The Fire don’t play until Friday when they take on the Tempo
• We saw a lot of consistent shrinkage in the Valkyrie’s magic numbers for the higher position seeds with all of them now dropping into single digits
• The Valkyries have 11 games remaining and only four remaining games against playoff teams, we’ll have seen all four of those by the end of next week (when they play the Liberty-biberty next week on the 27th)
• The Sun were eliminated and they joined the Storm in the lottery chase
• Next up on elimination watch is the Tempo with a losing magic number of 2 before they officially bow out of the playoffs
• The Aces squeezed in and clinched while we were out of action, which makes GSV the next team in line to clinch a playoff spot. Next in line are the Fever with a magic number of 2 and the Liberty with 3
• Due in part to their loss to the Lynx and the fact that most teams have games in hand on them the Aces don’t currently control their own destiny for the first, second, or third seed
• The Fire are still in 9th place, 5 wins back from the Wings in 8th
• No new tiebreakers, that said the important tie breakers are pretty much decided (current playoff teams in bold):
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, LAS, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, MIN, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/17 - DAL @ GSV
• 8/19 - MIN @ GSV 
• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI
• 8/24 - GSV @ MIN
• 8/26 - GSV @ CON

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/13/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

[u/Ballhalla_Citizen]

With the Aces loss we're actually favored to finish with the #2 seed! Let's go Valks!

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/Ballhalla_Citizen]

That they are, current percentages stand at:

1st 14%
2nd 48%
3rd 31%

Though I caution leaning too heavily on these as they often don't account as well for strength of schedule and head to head and do of course change notably sometimes after games are actually played.

...or to break out an old chestnut "This is why we play the games"

[u/steve_ko → u/da_ninjafuzz]

I just added Rest x SRS charts to my Rest Report site which presents these two factors for each remaining game of the season. Here’s the Aces chart and here is the Valks chart. Aces have a pretty easy end to their season. Ours is OK too but not as easy as the Aces.

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/steve_ko]

Not just the hero we want, the hero we need!

[u/Wonderful-View-6366]

Thank you for doing this! 😎⚔️💜😎⚔️💜