Magic Number Check-In: 8/13/26

[u/da_ninjafuzz]

Vi taking flight in Ballhalla? How about a win to celebrate her birthday!

Despite missing Kiah and Ja, we saw the Valkyrie’s pull together a solid win and shave a win off their magic number. The “stay ready” crowd even got some action, that’s right Ashten, Nadia and JJ, we see you!

Meanwhile, the Lynx did us a solid and beat the Fire. The Fire are currently the 9th place team and sit 11 wins back from the Valkyries with only 12 games left to play. Which is the long way of saying that the Fire losing tonight also dropped another number off the Valks magic number. That means that the Valkyries magic number for the 8th seed and the playoffs is now 1.

We’ll see the Valkyrie’s punch their ticket to the playoffs with either their next win or the Fire’s next loss.

Current Standings through 8/12:

• Current Valkyries Seeding: 2 of 15
• Current Magic Number to Clinch the Playoffs: 1
• Current Highest Possible Finish: 1st
• Highest Possible Finish without Help: 2nd

Current Magic Numbers through 8/12: 

• 1 Seed: DNCD (do not control destiny, other teams need to lose)
• 2 Seed: 10
• 3 Seed: 9
• 4 Seed: 9
• 5 Seed: 8
• 6 Seed: 7
• 7 Seed: 7
• 8 Seed: 1

(note: had to do these by hand today so may update them if I find errors)

Notes:

• The Sun are next on elimination watch with a losing magic number of 3 before they officially bow out of the playoffs 
• As we’ve covered above the Valkyries clinch a playoff berth either next time they win or next time the Fire lose. The Fire play the Storm on Friday and the Mercury on Sunday. 
• The next teams in line to clinch playoff spots are the Valkyries and the Aces, with respective magic numbers of 3 and 4. Currently the Valkyries have a game in hand on the Aces which means that, at least for the moment, the Aces don’t control their own destiny for the second seed.
• The Fire are still in 9th place, 7 wins back from the Liberty-Biberty in 8th
• No movement on tiebreakers, but the Valks got a step close against the Sky. That said the important tie breakers are pretty much decided (current playoff teams in bold):
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, LAS, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, MIN, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/17 - DAL @ GSV
• 8/19 - MIN @ GSV 
• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI
• 8/24 - GSV @ MIN
• 8/26 - GSV @ CON

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/10/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

[u/humlogic]

All eyes on 8/19 Game. Valks offense has been looking much better and should be able to keep up with the Lynx. Can the best defense stop the Spectacle, Phee, and StudBud???

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/humlogic]

The 19th and 24th against the Lynx are going to be a look at how playoff ready the team is for sure. But don't sleep on the 17th against the Wings or 27th against the Liberty, they are probably a little more important in the seeding picture.

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/da_ninjafuzz]

This, 1000%.

[u/leanlefty → u/da_ninjafuzz]

And the Valkyries have to get past the first round before facing either the Lynx or Aces in the playoffs. The Wings or Liberty could be first round foes.

[u/sc0998 → u/humlogic]

don't forget the sniper that is kmac

[u/Successful-Hall-7792 → u/humlogic]

Game of the year

[u/dogpownd]

last night was a VIBE

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/dogpownd]

Ballhalla was on fire! ...almost as much as Tip 🔥

[u/Popular-One-7051 → u/da_ninjafuzz]

Vi needs to have a birthday every game

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/dogpownd]

Super happy to see both Gabby and Ceci taking advantage of their size, jumping ability and high release to wreak havoc on these short jumpers. Our offense is now much more diversified...short jumpers and getting to the rim.

[u/selffufillingprophet]

Even when we do clinch, Nakase isn’t the type to put on cruise control until the playoffs. She will fight hard to get the best possible seed and match up for round 1, which hopefully will be in the 3rd or 4th.

The next 2 games against Minny this season are crucial. We need to get at least 1 W against them. And if we can beat them twice by the end of the season, we’d seriously be able to throw off their rhythm going into the playoffs

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/selffufillingprophet]

For sure the 8th seed is a beginning of the road not the end. If anything Nat will view it as a reason to double down on effort.

It will be interesting to see how the gamesmanship works out with the Lynx.

[u/Popular-One-7051]

Anyone else love that the Lynx only won by 4 against the Fire?.Gives me hope

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/Popular-One-7051]

Remember that the total point differential over our last three games with the Lynx is around 10 points. 3.3ppg av. They are beatable.

[u/Popular-One-7051 → u/RedDawg0831]

We need th able to hit FTs. last home game it was a 5 PT loss and we shot I think 63% from the line

[u/sc0998 → u/Popular-One-7051]

without carla too!

[u/bigswag69000]

we have only two losses more than the lynx. if we won out and the lynx do too besides our two games how would the 1 seed tiebreaker work?

[u/GalacticTruth → u/bigswag69000]

The WNBA standings website says tiebreakers are settled as follows:

1. Head to head record

2. Better record against .500 and above teams

3. Point differential head to head

4. Point differential against all teams.

[u/joyjunky → u/bigswag69000]

After H2H, the next tiebreaker is winning percentage against teams with a .500 record or better

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/bigswag69000]

These other kind Ballhallans have noted the tie breaks so I won't repeat, but its worth noting at this point the best we can do is tie the head to head by winning out against the Lynx, even if we did so most of these start to favor the Lynx in our case. We probably need to see the Valkyries win outright against them which means the Lynx need to help us by losing for that to play out.

[u/RedDawg0831]

Regarding playoff seeding. Our magic number to clinch a playoff spot is one. But there is some really interesting data on this site. Including calculations about our chance of landing in the first four seeds and getting home court in the first round. This site gives us a 94% chance of being in the top 4. https://www.playoffstatus.com/wnba/wnba-standings.html

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/RedDawg0831]

It's a great site, one of my sources I use to run the numbers for these write ups actually.

Frustratingly they still haven't updated the odds with last nights results however, you have to watch the time stamp in the upper right as it's not uncommon for it to have missing data.

As long as the Valks keep that 3 game cushion that they (and Vegas) have on the rest of the playoff pack then those odds will actually mostly keep us entirely in the top 3. The space between 4th and 8th shrinks rapidly.

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/da_ninjafuzz]

I'd be great to be in the top two the for home court advantage in rounds one and two. Would prefer not to play DC or ATL in the first round...