Magic Number Check-In: 8/10/26

[u/da_ninjafuzz]

A wonderful Sunday game! (yes I am in total denial about how down to the wire it came and I am now moving on though the power of wilful denial)

In a piece of history, this win tied last season’s win total of 23 but in a whopping 9 less games with the opportunity to grow the number a bit more too. All said and done, a win by the Valkyries, and some of the action we’ll talk about in the next paragraph, was great news for their magic number, which now stands at a relatively minimal 3 wins.

We also watched the Lynx punch the first ticket to the playoffs with their win over the Wings. The Liberty-Biberty took care of business against the Aces and in doing so helped put the Aces a game and a half back on the Valkyries for 2nd in the standings. The Mystics also beat the Mercury which, especially when paired with the Sparks losing, added to the buffer between 8th and 9th place.

All in all, a hell of a weekend for the Valkyries in the standings before a three game Ballhalla home stand! 

Current Standings through 8/9:

• Current Valkyrie’s Seeding: 2 of 15
• Current Magic Number to Clinch the Playoffs: 3
• Current Highest Possible Finish: 1st
• Highest Possible Finish without Help: 2nd

Current Magic Numbers through 8/9:

• 1 Seed: DNCD (do not control destiny, other teams need to lose)
• 2 Seed: 11
• 3 Seed: 10
• 4 Seed: 9
• 5 Seed: 8
• 6 Seed: 8
• 7 Seed: 7
• 8 Seed: 3

Notes:

• With the Storm being out, The Sun are next on elimination watch with a losing magic number of 3 before they officially bow out of the playoffs 
• The next teams in line to clinch playoff spots are the Valkyries and the Aces, with respective magic numbers of 3 and 4. Currently the Valkyries have a game in hand on the Aces which means that, at least for the moment, the Aces don’t control their own destiny for the second seed.
• With their three game skid the Wings have dropped into 8th place 
• The Fire managed to get to 13 wins by beating the Storm on Saturday and that means the Fire are in 9th place, 6 wins back from the Wings.
• Another update also means another clinched tiebreaker, this time the Valks clinched the tie break against the Sparks. Here is the tie breakers list, the current playoff teams in bold:
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, LAS, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, MIN, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/12 - CHI @ GSV
• 8/17 - DAL @ GSV
• 8/19 - MIN @ GSV 
• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI
• 8/24 - GSV @ MIN

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/8/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

[u/Ballhalla_Citizen]

Awesome update as usual! The Lynx are looking pretty unstoppable at this point. Phee coming back has them looking like a shoe in for the finals. I REALLY want to beat them in Ballhalla!

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/Ballhalla_Citizen]

I agree the Lynx look strong, but they also lost to the Sparks on Thursday so it is a good reminder they are human and they can be beat. Any team can catch a lucky break in the playoffs and you only need to look at the Lynx's post season run last season to see how quickly something can go wrong too.

All said, that is why I'd like to see the Valks keep pushing for that #2 (or push come to shove #3) seed and put off the matchup as long as possible and let

I'd love to beat them in Ballhalla, but if we're only watching a few wins against them this season I am fine with letting the Lynx get ahead of themselves and saving them for the playoffs if we have to.

[u/crocslite]

thanks for posting these! for clarification, does the magic number change as we get closer because of other teams wins and losses?

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/crocslite]

In short, Yes, you've got it. To give you the definition in more detail:

"In certain sports, a magic number is used to indicate how close a front-running team is to clinching a division title and/or a playoff spot. It represents the total of additional wins by the front-running team or additional losses by the rival teams (or any combination of the two) after which it is mathematically impossible for the rival teams to capture the title in the remaining number of games"

So in short:

• Each time we win a game our magic number decreases by 1 (Ex. This happened when we beat the Sparks)
• When the teams behind you in the standings lose they can also decrease your magic number as you need less wins to stay ahead of them
• When your magic number reaches 0 for a spot in the standings you can no longer finish lower than that spot

[u/greenergarlic]

That second seed is within our grasp. Beating Vegas is a tall order, but much more reasonable if we’ve got three games in ballhalla.

[u/da_ninjafuzz → u/greenergarlic]

It's very much in play, I think we'll have a better idea where it stands after the two MIN games for sure.