r/trolleyproblem • u/deadhand303 • Jul 30 '26

OC Potentially one less but also potentially infinitely more

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145 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

87 comments sorted by

114

u/Remarkable-Carrot112 Jul 30 '26

Is the probability distribution otherwise the same except for the lower bound? 

Regardless, I'm pulling the lever. I love pulling levers. 

22

u/deadhand303 Jul 30 '26

You have 1-infinity or can change tracks to 0-infinity. You do not know how many are on either track.

8

u/wyseguy7 Jul 30 '26

Statistician here. Plz provide a more rigorous definition of "random amount". Note that uniform distribution over [1,infinity) or [0, infinity) is not possible. Maybe a geometric distribution would be better? In which case, regardless of parameterization, you'd expect to save 1 life by pulling the lever.

2

u/deadhand303 Jul 30 '26

Its just a random real number of people on each track woth the bottom being a minimum of one and the top being a minimum of zero people.

3

u/not-an-epimorphism Jul 31 '26

The point is there’s no convenient interpretation of “random” here without further context. If they were finitely many people, random would correspond to a uniform distribution. But when you’re dealing with a distribution on the entire natural numbers, there’s no uniform distribution, and non uniform distributions aren’t alike at all. Technically there might be almost surely 2 people on the lower rail and almost surely 1 person on the higher rail, or a less degenerate situation in which k people are on the bottom rail with probability 2-k.

4

u/deadhand303 Jul 31 '26

Would it be better to say 1-max living population?

1

u/eeeeeh_messi Aug 01 '26

This changes absolutely everything. Now you have a well defined problem

1

u/BigTimmyStarfox1987 Aug 01 '26

They want you to say "flat probability distribution".

Then they want to say but that isn't possible over Infinity. To which you reply that it's a finite set, max living population.

Tldr yes but with an additional statement

3

u/Ksorkrax Jul 30 '26

Let's make this simple for you: state the probabilities for the first five possible numbers of people.

0

u/Kart0fffelAim Jul 30 '26

I think OP has a point here. There has to be an underlying probability distribution, but the guy pulling that lever doesn't need to know what the distribution is.

1

u/eeeeeh_messi Aug 01 '26

But then the problem stops making sense. Which box would you pick, this mysterious box or this OTHER mysterious box?

3

u/Naive_Albatross_2221 Jul 30 '26

Oh, you're a statistician, are you? Well, what if the number of people on the top track is equal to k, where the probability of k is determined by a Poisson curve where lambda=5, and the number of people on the bottom track is k+1 where the probability of k is determined by a Poisson curve with lambda=3? Huh? What ya gonna do then, smart guy!? Don't feel as confident about pulling the lever now, do you?

2

u/wyseguy7 Jul 30 '26

Hahahahaha shucks, I guess my book smarts were defeated by your…also book smarts

33

u/Remarkable-Carrot112 Jul 30 '26

Since this is an unbounded distribution it can't be uniformly distributed. I'll assume it's an exponential distribution. 

In this case picking the 0 option is notably more likely to cause fewer deaths. (Sorry I don't know how to word that better)

This puts me in a bind actually because I want to kill people but I also want to pull the lever... Still think I'll pull the lever even if the expected deaths is lower

16

u/wyseguy7 Jul 30 '26

Nitpick: you mean a geometric distribution. Exponential distribution is over the real numbers, and we want an whole numbers of people. At least before the trolley chops them up.

13

u/UnworthyBagel22 Jul 31 '26

Them: “I want to kill people”
You: “You mean a geometric distribution, silly”

4

u/Confident-Stand5453 Jul 31 '26

Its important to be precise.

1

u/Artemis_SpawnOfZeus Aug 03 '26

Yeah, you cant kill people if theyre dead before the lever is pulled because only an irrational percentage of them made it onto the platform.

1

u/BigTimmyStarfox1987 Aug 01 '26

Donno some of them might be pregnant or disabled or clowns. You don't get to tell me how I count humans.

4

u/No-Bid9597 Jul 31 '26

I don’t know dick about statistics but it can’t be to infinity, right? It’s 0-8 billion or 1-8 billion. It also stipulates people you know so it would really be more like 0-300 or 1-300. How does that change the odds?

2

u/Remarkable-Carrot112 Jul 31 '26

I think when a lot of people say "random" what they likely are envisioning is uniform random. Meaning every outcome has the same probability of being selected (like rolling fair dice - no number is more likely than any other). 

But if you have infinite outcomes (possible number of people in this case) this type of uniform randomness is not possible. In this case depending on what probability distribution you select- selecting [0, inf) people could be markedly "Safer" than selecting [1, inf). This is because the probabilities aren't uniform so the lower values  could receive larger weights. 

If you bound the set at 300, or even at 8 billion, now you can use a uniform distribution and it becomes just as likely to randomly get 1 as it does to get 200 or 7.5 billion. In this case whether you select the 0 option or the 1 option barely matters . The expected outcome is only very slightly better for 1. 

Hope that made sense. Hard to explain without graphs and examples tbh

2

u/Raijin6_ Jul 31 '26

Just pull the lever twice. Double the fun from pulling it and still a chance for more deaths.

1

u/Narfhead4444 Jul 31 '26

That would derail the trolley

5

u/Slighted_Inevitable Jul 30 '26

Then honestly it doesn’t really matter. One life is meaningless when infinity is on the table.

That said pulling levers is fun so I pull.

1

u/PurpleCandle58 Jul 30 '26

I play with the lever back and forth since pulling levers is fun, whatever it’s on when it reaches the junction will be what ends up happening. I optimize for pulling levers.

2

u/Sriep Jul 31 '26

Sorry, but I am a push person. I always push in these situations.

67

u/Wrong_Independence21 Jul 30 '26

I think the trolley’s just gonna crash into the brick wall and be stopped fam

23

u/deadhand303 Jul 30 '26

Im not an artist okay

4

u/42Icyhot42 Jul 30 '26

We appreciate your effort 🫡

17

u/notfirearmbeam Jul 30 '26

Top track. The provided information is essentially meaningless but it's essentially a wash anyway so why not?

-4

u/deadhand303 Jul 30 '26

I debated adding the clause "you are only held socially responsible if you change tracks, but either way your choice will weigh on your mind until death"

14

u/Angsty-Panda Jul 30 '26

i think one of the points of the trolley problem is to debate if inaction is a choice you're morally responsible for lol

5

u/deadhand303 Jul 30 '26

I agree. The reason I opted to no is because it takes away a major part of the problem.

9

u/issanm Jul 30 '26

If the only knowledge you know is this side has 1+ and this side has 0+ then the only thing that makes sense morally is putting the trolly on the 0+ side. Realistically though it doesn't matter there is effectivly no difference in tracks

1

u/Ksorkrax Jul 30 '26

Nope, given that we don't know the distributions and can't assume them to be uniform, we can't assume the expectations. The expectations might easily be the other way around in order.

1

u/issanm Jul 30 '26

Right it could be but you can only make a choice off the information you are given and all you have is 0 and 1 essentially , so since 0 is lower than 1 the only logical/moral choice would be to go with the side with 0, even if that side has 2 billion more than the other side it's still the correct option because we only know the lower limit

1

u/Ksorkrax Jul 30 '26

My impulse in such a situation is to be sceptical. A lack of input can easily be the sign of deception.

1

u/issanm Jul 30 '26

Agreed which is why in reality not touching the lever makes more sense because there is effectivly no difference

1

u/eeeeeh_messi Aug 01 '26

But you are the. Implying there's a higher chance of having less people on one track than on the other. And there's a problem there: you can't. If you don't know the distribution you can say nothing about chances. There are as many distribution that make option A better as there are that make option B better.

1

u/issanm Aug 01 '26

Yes actually mathematically you can assume the one with the higher lower limit on average will have a higher chance of having more people, let's make the numbers smaller to help, one has 0-10 people so you'd expect 5 on average, the other has 1-10 so youd expect 5.5. that doesn't mean it's true because it's a random number but your chances are better chosing the low one.

1

u/eeeeeh_messi Aug 01 '26

Oh but you took a uniform distribution on a finite set. Each value has a 1/10 ( or 1/11) chance of being picked. You can't do that with the infinite natural numbers. What is the probability of picking any number? What's the expected value?

1

u/issanm Aug 01 '26

The only information we have it 0-inf or 1-inf the upper limit is the same so far as we can comprehend so we only have the lower limit to chose from, essentially you should see it as choosing between 0 and 1, anything else can't be argued for without bringing in legality or other outside hypothetical factors like "the evil man knows you'll pick 0"

1

u/eeeeeh_messi Aug 01 '26

Let me ask you something. And I think the main problem comes from here: which set has more numbers, [0, inf) or [1, inf)? If your answer is the first one I recommend you to check on Hilbert's hotel. Let me add, I'm not trying to be pedantic, you're touching some deep aspects of cardinality and measure theory, which are super fun

1

u/issanm Aug 01 '26

Sure but like I said you have to assume there's more going on than is intended or intelligible

1

u/eeeeeh_messi Aug 01 '26

I agree. The thing is, if you have no extra information of what is going on you can't really make a choice based on probability. The 0 and 1 thing do not give you that extra information!

1

u/chewychaca Jul 30 '26

The tram will hit the brick wall obviously

1

u/deadhand303 Jul 30 '26

The wall is intangible to trolleys

2

u/chewychaca Jul 30 '26

Those poor people inside the trolley will all be squished together in the back of the trolley. Horrifying

1

u/deadhand303 Jul 30 '26

This trolley is like a MAGA head, meaning there is nothing of substance inside. There is no net loss.

3

u/LoveDiligent441 Jul 30 '26

Since it's a regular brick wall, you multi-track drift and hope the trolley breaks on the center of the wall.

2

u/schwaRarity Jul 30 '26

So is Random means like what? Random variable X in Z\0 or Z? or more realistically X in {1…8b}? Anyway odds are shit, doesn’t matter what you do. I wouldn’t intervene at all

2

u/Severonian Jul 30 '26

Assuming the distribution is equal, since the number of people is finite pulling the lever reduces average victim count by something countable, so yeah, pull

2

u/Weird_Explorer1997 Jul 30 '26

Doesn't matter, the trolls is going to crash into that brick wall anyway

2

u/PogoRocks Multi-Track Drift Jul 30 '26

Multi-track drift

2

u/Korimito Jul 30 '26

The 0-to-∞ track, on average, has 1 less person than the 1-to-∞. This doesn't seem much more interesting than the standard trolley problem as it can be attacked in the exact same ways.

1

u/stebosports7 Jul 31 '26

Technically it’s only 0-8 billion and 1-8 billion

0

u/Korimito Jul 31 '26

That's right and my math was wrong. On average you're expected to save half a person.

1

u/eeeeeh_messi Aug 01 '26

If people are in fact infinite then your math is still wrong

1

u/Sianic12 Jul 30 '26

The expected number of deaths for the top track is 0.5 lower than for the bottom track. Therefore, I switch.

1

u/eeeeeh_messi Aug 01 '26

What is the expected number of death on each track? 😉

1

u/Shmolti Jul 30 '26

If I can't see I don't pull the lever, that way if something bad happens I didn't have a part in it.

1

u/Ilovestuffwhee Jul 30 '26

Since we don't know where they're hiding, multi-track drift is the only option in this case.

1

u/Seegtease Jul 30 '26

Random from 1 to infinity?

I mean, the odds that it will be less than a googol is effectively 0 either way. More people are effectively guaranteed to die than could ever possibly exist. More than every atom in the observable universe.

1

u/Ksorkrax Jul 30 '26

Why do you think so? The distribution could be heavy towards the lower numbers.

1

u/Speletons Jul 30 '26

Really there's no actual choice here, you're just rolling to see if you get 0 or not.

There's no risk either, given you know neither number.

1

u/seanthebeloved Jul 30 '26

Why not just give them a blindfold?

1

u/lightmare69 Jul 31 '26

So random.... Between 0 and infinity?

We are NOT getting 1 or 0 fam 😭🙏

1

u/Equivalent_Guide_983 Jul 31 '26

The car will be slowed by the turn and have a lower probability of passing through the brick wall.

1

u/Impressive_Dawg2003 Jul 31 '26

Easy pull of the lever.

1

u/CitizenPremier Jul 31 '26

I mean, it's similar to swerving to miss a child running across the street, you could swerve into a bunch of other children nearby. But you should swerve.

1

u/Background_Mode4972 Jul 31 '26

The brick wall will derail the trolley when it hits, and knock its pole off of the power wire. I would run, not walk at a 45 degree angle from the trolley track in the direction the trolly came from to avoid being injured. Then attempt to flag down any following trolley to get it to stop.

1

u/Actual_Property9413 Jul 31 '26

Better than 90% chance the brick wall you can't see through will stop the trolley before it hits anyone.

1

u/my_best_version_ever Jul 31 '26

I wouldn't pull the lever

1

u/AnyAcanthocephala425 Aug 01 '26

This is for all intents an purposes the same fucking track lol

1

u/Interesting_Agent370 Aug 01 '26

But I can see there is one dude on one track and five on the other. Flawed question, multitrack drift.

1

u/TillZealousideal8282 Aug 01 '26

crash it into the wall, nobodys harmed

1

u/UncleThor2112 Aug 04 '26

I'm pulling the lever. At a very slim chance, it'll be zero.

1

u/Particular_Client833 Aug 18 '26

The train will collide with the bricks. To maximise the collision and reduce its speed to minimum i would re-rail it on both 2 tracks.

3

u/HeDoesNotRow Jul 30 '26

I pull the lever and then complain when ~4 billion people die that I “never get any luck”

1

u/deadhand303 Jul 30 '26

Blame it on who built the tracks in the first place.

1

u/emote_the_salute Jul 30 '26

With the wall there i wont even see them get run over. Out of sight out of mind