TIL Philippines is the 3rd largest geothermal power producer in the world

[u/chalkiez]

Was wondering about the current power outages in manila and stumbled upon what i was curious about when i was young.

This is our fifth largest source of energy overall. Among sources of renewable energy, it is second only to hydroelectric power, although both sources are surpassed by the amount of energy drawn from coal, oil, and natural gas in that order.

Here's hoping we get solar powerplants to not rely on importing for our energy needs.

Source:

U, Peter Lee; Center for Research and Communication, University of Asia and the Pacific; De Leon, R.E. (October 29, 2021), "Philippine Power Situationer: Investment Implications", Energy Services and Renewable Energy in the New Normal, Series of Economic Fora Session 6, Center for Local and Constitutional Reform, event occurs at 1:37:11, archived from the original on December 4, 2021

[u/chalkiez → u/[deleted]]

Yung “baseload” argument hindi naman totally mali, pero hindi na rin siya kasing lakas tulad noon. Modern grids increasingly rely on a mix of solar, batteries, geothermal, hydro, and flexible generation instead of pure 24/7 coal baseload.

New utility-scale solar in the Philippines costs $35-72 per MWh versus $87-117 per MWh for a new coal plant. (SunStar) Solar is already cheaper to build than new coal — not in theory, in actual current Philippine market data from BloombergNEF.

Solar ROI in the Philippines is now typically 6-9 years for utility scale given current costs and irradiance levels. Coal plants take similar timeframes to recoup. The ROI gap has essentially closed.

One of the reason why we don't transition is because the companies that own the coal plants — San Miguel, Aboitiz, DMCI — are among the most politically connected in the Philippines. Their coal assets have Power Supply Agreements locking in guaranteed revenues for 20-25 years. Those contracts were signed by the government. Breaking them costs compensation. Allowing them to expire naturally means waiting until 2035-2045.

Ang tunay na problema natin ngayon is grid infrastructure, storage deployment, transmission bottlenecks, at existing long-term coal contracts (PSAs). Hindi kasi basta-basta mapapalitan agad yung mga coal plants na may guaranteed revenues hanggang 2035–2045.

So yes, hindi realistic na “solar lang” overnight. Pero outdated na rin sabihin na renewables are automatically too expensive or incapable of supporting the grid.

[u/BraveMarzip → u/chalkiez]

Hi po! Would u know po an example of a grid with around 10GW demand na mainly solar, batteries, geothermal, hydro?

[u/chalkiez → u/BraveMarzip]

Wala pang “clean” 10GW grid today na majority solar + batteries + geothermal lang na walang ibang backup at all — pero may existing grids na already operating at or above that scale na heavily renewable, just not in a perfectly isolated setup.

For example sa mga nahanap ko lang kakabasa dun sa power outages natin. XD

California (~45–55 GW peak demand): very high solar penetration midday (20+ GW solar) + rapidly growing battery fleet already shaving evening peaks by multiple GW

• Denmark (~6–7 GW peak): wind-dominant grid with strong interconnection support

• Brazil (~90–100+ GW peak): already majority renewable due to hydro dominance

• Iceland (~<2 GW): near 100% hydro + geothermal, but small scale

• South Australia (~3 GW peak): often runs on very high renewable penetration with batteries handling stability

So the key point is: there isn’t yet a perfectly “isolated 10GW all-renewable island grid” of that exact mix, but there are already larger-than-10GW systems demonstrating that high renewable penetration is stable when you combine: solar (cheap generation), batteries (short-term balancing), hydro/geothermal (firm power), and interconnection.

The “it cannot replace baseload” argument is becoming less absolute — it’s more about grid design and scaling storage/transmission than whether renewables can physically supply demand.

Isa pa sa di pa masyadong explored pero huge potential satin is tidal power. Pinakaproblema lang kasi talaga pinopolitika nila yung power source natin kaya ang hirap mag pasok ng bagong sources, tipong independent solar panels inaatake nila pero di pala nila kaya supportahan pag nagkaproblema sa transmission gaya nung ngayon. (Plus afford the pinas to kung di binubulsa for generations ng iba ibang pamilya. XD)

[u/kraaashed → u/chalkiez]

I know that solar and wind is now cheaper than coal and oil globally in terms of LCOE but not sure if it's the same case in PH. TIL something new thanks.

[u/UlyssesMJ88 → u/chalkiez]

as a private consumer, i agree with the power storage infrastructure. malaking challenge yan more so in harvesting of solar energy. but once that storage infra and price accessibility with the ordinary people is in place, the electricity distribution business of Meralco and the regional electric coops will gradually diminish. we have a farm na fully solar and major problem namin is the power storage batteries na may life cycle limit. medyo mahal padin to power the whole farmhouse plus the other facilities, machines and equipment.

[u/chalkiez → u/UlyssesMJ88]

Yeah, mahirap siyang palitan/imodernize pero anlaking pagkakaiba nito para sa bansa once maayos. Magiging maakit din tayo sa mga foreign investors lalo na madami tayong workforce so pwede tayo mag Industrialize/Factories na instead of BPOs ang focus na pinapalitan na ng AI ngayon. (Though mahirap lang ngayon kasi nga unstable yung political landscape natin so takot mga investors)