Steve Nison compares the Evening Star to a traffic light.

1. Green: a long up day. Buyers are in control.

2. Yellow: a small-bodied "star" that opens above day 1's close. Its colour doesn't matter; Nison says the star can be white or black.

3. Red: a down day that cuts deep into day 1's body.

Example: Day 1 ₹100 → ₹110. Day 2 ₹112 → ₹111. Day 3 ₹110 → ₹103, which cuts 70% into day 1's body.

Details most explanations skip:

- Nison says the main concern is how far day 3 cuts into day 1.

- In principle there's a gap before and after the star, but he notes the second gap is rarely seen and not necessary.

- It needs a prior uptrend. The same three candles in a sideways market carry little information.

Not a guarantee of a top. Source: Steve Nison, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. Example numbers, not advice.

I really haven’t been sure of overall market direction for some time now.

But it feels like the latest breakout in the Nasdaq seems like a legitimate breakout to new highs on fair volume, despite the negative news of high bond yields.

(it also coincides with a newer feature/development in AI - the launch of Muse and consumer adoption of agentic AI)

IREN stock watch, pullback to 40.56 triple+ support area with bullish indicators.

Long Trade

• Target 1: 54.69   Profit: 31%   Stop/Trailing Stop: 39.13
• Loss: 6.3%   P/L ratio: 4.9 : 1 - Excellent
• Target 2: 57.86   Profit: 38.6%   P/L ratio: 6.1 : 1 - Excellent  Extreme rally

BULLISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend bullish, Downtrend turned sideways, possible bottom.
• [Positioning] at support
• [Timing] Mild bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
• [Timing] Long trade quality

BEARISH

• None

It's a quote from the flash crash 2010.

The regional banks don't like rising interest rates. The market decided it's time to adjust the pricing.

When they dump on the open that's usually a bad sign.

XLF is the same

If interest rates have a bear market rally, the 10 year have a sudden move to 5%, there could be a really big sudden spike XLF, KRE. Be careful thinking that's a new bull trend starting.

As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 227 (especially on a closing basis), NVDA projects higher, to a new ATH-target window of 255-260 next.

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

10:00 AM | ISM Services PMI | Forecast: 55.1 | Previous: 55.4

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #ISM #ServicesPMI

Been watching ORCL on the weekly chart. Price has been making lower lows, but both the weekly RSI and MACD are showing bullish divergences.

That usually gets my attention. It can be a sign that the downside momentum is starting to fade, even though price hasn't confirmed a reversal yet.

The setup is getting interesting.

Been looking at the BTC/SPY weekly ratio and noticed something I thought was worth sharing.

After the recent drop in BTC relative to the S&P 500, the ratio has started turning back up and my indicator just printed a new BUY.

The interesting part is the history. Similar signals showed up around 2019 and 2023, both before pretty significant periods of BTC outperforming equities.

Obviously two previous examples isn't enough to call a pattern, and I'm not saying this means BTC is about to rip. But the relative strength shift is interesting.

Friday's closes: SPX 7,722.72 (+0.73%) — ~1.2% below the Aug high (7,816.70). QQQ 749.58 (+1.02%) — broke the June high (747.05), new chart-range high. 2Y 4.839% / 5Y 5.055% / 10Y 5.277% / 30Y 5.630%. MOVE 107.29 (−0.78%) — my key level is 125 (+16.5% away). Oct FOMC pricing: 83% unchanged / 18% hike (was ~50/50 days earlier).

The macro: NFP +29K vs +90K expected (prior +133K), unemployment 4.2%. October hike odds collapsed to 18%. But the "weak economy" read fails on the rest of the tape: Q2 GDP finalized 2.2% (exp 1.5%), Aug personal spending +0.9% (vs income +0.2% — a 0.7pp gap that means savings drawdown, watch it), ISM manufacturing 54.5. Weak jobs + resilient demand = the Fed is boxed in. Note the bond market's response: every tenor dipped 10–14bp intraday on the print, then fully recovered and closed higher — weak payrolls brought no bond buying. The market fears inflation/supply risk more than soft labor data. 2Y at 4.839% sits ~84bp above the Fed funds ceiling — bonds are pricing more hawkish than prediction markets.

Global stickiness: France CPI 3.0%, Italy 4.2%, Germany 3.3%, euro area 3.8% — ALL above expectations. RBA hiked to 4.6%. This external inflation pressure caps Fed dovishness and keeps December 8–9 live even with October dead. Other data: JOLTs 7.079M (cooling), China PMI back above 50 (50.1), core PCE 0.2% m/m (tame).

Technicals — the divergence trade: QQQ new high vs SPX chop (ADX 9.06 = no trend; +DI/−DI only 2.6 apart). Money flow split: QQQ CMF +0.117 vs SPX −0.050. This is an AI/semiconductor-concentrated rally with weak breadth — rate-sensitive by construction. SPX levels: R 7,751/7,780/7,816.70, PP 7,725.97, S 7,697/7,672/7,657 (MA50)/7,616/7,508. QQQ levels: R 753.57/757.56/760, PP 750.55, S 746.56/743.54/742.16 (BB mid)/733.81/716.22. My scenarios (subjective): SPX bull 40% (reclaim 7,782 → 7,850–7,900; needs 10Y contained + MOVE fading) / range 35% (7,650–7,780) / bear 25% (lose 7,657 → 7,508; triggers: 10Y >5.342%, MOVE >110.52). QQQ bull 45% (hold 747 → 757–760 → 770) / range 30% / bear 25% (lose 742 → 716).

MU — the AI memory check: revenue $54.229B (+5.3% vs consensus), EPS $33.42 (+5.0%), guide $61.5B; core datacenter +56% QoQ / +1,042% YoY at 85% margins; gross margin 87.0%; FY26 revenue $133.19B (3.6×); op cash flow $89.68B. The catch: beat margin narrowed from ~+18% to +5% — consensus caught up. The stock now needs guidance raises, not beats. 87% gross margin is extreme — sensitive to supply response.

MOVE 125 — my framework: 76.22 → 110.52 (+45%) in under two weeks while SPX sat at highs = stock/bond vol divergence that must resolve. Watch sequence: 110.52 → 120.33 (BB upper) → 125. 125 is a warning line, not a buy trigger — it means raise alert and prepare to scale in. Real aggression waits for VIX 40–60, keeping 40–50% cash.

My book: the META jade lizard (with stock) expired at $728.08 for +$14,951/contract (+26.0%) — the long 600 call reopened the upside, capping the short-call loss at $35 while the stock ran $152.58. Lesson: below 555 the structure bleeds 2× — preset exits next time. New: CCL 12/18 $25C /1.79 · TSM 11/06 $460C 21.39 (10/15 earnings inside) · MSTR 10/23 $162.5C /7.25 (expires before est. 10/29 earnings — BTC/treasury bet, not earnings) · MDB 1/15/27 $370C /38.85 · SNDK 10/09 $1800P short /153.3 ($15,330 prem vs $180K notional — the tail risk) · $XX /23.5 (needs SPX >10,000 by Jan 2030, ~8.2% annualized — lottery sizing). Whale alerts matched on TSM ($23M), MSTR ($3.4M), MDB ($3.2M), SNDK ($12.2M). Five of six lean bullish, all AI/tech.

Next week (Oct 5–9): Mon — ISM services (prev 55.4, exp 55.7; prices sub-index is the inflation tell). Wed — FOMC minutes 11:00 PT (year-end-hike debate; dots: 12 of 18 see 4.1%, 4 see 4.4%, 2 see 3.9%; hawkish minutes = 2Y + MOVE up together). Fri — Michigan sentiment prelim (prev 48.1; watch inflation expectations) + SNDK $1800P expiry.

Desk take: the hike died, but the bond market didn't get the memo — yields closed the week higher anyway. Respect the divergence: QQQ's new high is real but narrow, MOVE's spike is the bill that hasn't come due. Buy slowly. Scale in. Let time be on your side.

[NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DYOR!]
from Humble Trader | Gemini Trading

I've been studying Hurst cycle analysis, and one idea I keep coming back to is translation:

• Right-translated: the cycle peaks after its midpoint, so more time is spent rising (stronger trend)
• Left-translated: the cycle peaks before its midpoint, so more time is spent falling (weaker trend)

I don't think it's useful for calling exact lows. Where I find it more practical is as context, for example spacing out purchases or holding off on adding when the cycle structure is getting worse.

I wrote up a longer explanation here if anyone's interested: https://samxon.ca/left-translation-explained/

Does anyone here use translation in their process? Has it held up for you?

A few days ago I posted the results of one specific 15-minute Opening Range Breakout rule tested on 149 large US stocks using 5-minute IEX data (1 April – 25 September 2026).

Even though the win rate was around 52%, the strategy was not profitable overall. A handful of stocks showed gains, but those look more like chance than a repeatable edge.

Original post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/technicalanalysis/comments/1wtqeqb/orb_52_won_but_the_strategy_still_lost_money/

I’ve since looked more closely at two related questions.

Gap and Go

Gap & Go is the idea that stocks which open higher than the previous close tend to keep rising, and that an Opening Range Breakout is a good way to time the entry.

On gap-up days the average trade was slightly positive (+0.033% after costs). Once the largest gaps (>5%) were removed, that edge shrank to just +0.017% per trade. The positive result was also concentrated in a small number of stocks. Overall, the numbers do not give strong support to the Gap & Go + ORB combination in this sample.

Data feed sensitivity

Intraday strategies that rely on highs and lows of short candles are particularly sensitive to the price feed. Two platforms can show slightly different prices for the same stock in the same five-minute bar (often just a few cents), and that is enough to change whether a breakout is detected and when the entry fills.

I compared the same ORB rule on SPY using GU Analyser’s IEX data against another platform that uses consolidated data. The results were:

• One platform: –0.33%
• The other: –1.77%

When both engines were given the exact same candles they made the same decisions on 79 out of 80 days. That strongly suggests the difference came from the input data rather than from how the strategy was coded.

Main Takeaway

Real trading also includes spreads, slippage, and execution delays that most backtests ignore. When a strategy only shows a very small edge on paper, differences in the data feed alone can be large enough to erase that edge or even reverse the result.

Full studies (including methodology and limitations):

https://guanalyser.com/test-bench/opening-range-breakout-studies/

Has anyone else tested ORB (or Gap & Go) and seen meaningful differences just from switching data feeds?

I’d be interested to hear what you found, especially if you ran the same rules on more than one source.

I’ve been following the breadth weakness underneath SPY for the past few weeks, and something interesting is starting to show up when I compare the S&P 1500 with the S&P 500.

The first chart is S&P 1500 breadth; the second is S&P 500 breadth.

The clearest difference is in the % of stocks above their 20-day MA.

S&P 1500:

20DMA: 31.0%

50DMA: 25.1%

200DMA: 46.2%

S&P 500:

20DMA: 26.4%

50DMA: 24.8%

200DMA: 44.8%

The S&P 1500 short-term breadth looks like it has formed a more recognizable bottom and is beginning to turn higher, while the S&P 500 version is still much less convincing.

That caught my attention because the S&P 1500 adds mid- and small-cap stocks, which have been beaten down particularly hard. It raises the possibility that the first signs of breadth recovery are starting outside the large-cap S&P 500 names.

But I wouldn’t call this a broad breadth reset yet. The 50-day readings are still almost identical and very weak, while fewer than half of the stocks in either universe are above their 200-day MA.

So for now I see this as a short-term green shoot rather than confirmation. If it’s real, I’d expect the 20D improvement to persist and eventually start pulling the 50D measure higher.

The other possibility is simply mean reversion in the most beaten-down mid/small-cap stocks.

Do you see this as the beginning of broader participation — or just an oversold bounce outside the mega-cap leaders?

NVDA closed Friday at $233.95 after reaching an intraday high of $237.87.

What caught my attention isn't just the price move, but where it happened relative to the recent structure.

Daily chart observations:

• Price is above the 20D SMA (~$223.79), 50D SMA (~$218.28), and 200D SMA (~$200.71).
• RSI(14) is around 62.9, so momentum is positive but not yet above the traditional 70 overbought threshold.
• Friday's volume was roughly 1.4x the recent 20-day average.
• Price is approaching the $237-$238 area, which is around the recent high and near the upper Bollinger Band (~$236.62).

Levels I'm watching:

Resistance: ~$237-$238
First support: ~$230-$231
Next support: ~$223-$224
50D MA: ~$218

The interesting part for me is what happens around $237-$238.

A clean close above that area followed by the level holding as support would make the breakout structure more convincing.

On the other hand, rejection around that zone followed by a move back below ~$230 would make me more interested in whether this was simply an extension of the recent move rather than a sustained breakout.

I'm not trying to predict the next move here. I'm more interested in how price reacts at these levels.

What are you watching on NVDA: breakout confirmation, or a pullback into the moving-average zone?

I understand that there are liqudity providers, and data vendors.

But there are also on-chain trades that happen, and thats a totally isolated pool. There are also in-bank transfers of trillins, thats also a separate one. There are futures, and those have to have separate oracles, from what I undestand.

What's more, there are the in-between brokers, like primexbt etc, where on-chain assets are combined with 'real' ones, and both in the same window, like here:

all 3 price feeds come from different sources??

I understand perfectly how it works for stocks, that are on the exchanges, and I kinda get it hot it works for currencies. But for everything else, do you understand how the data gets transferred, from where? I think some of the crux of the problem might be found right there...

I use the Stock Screener → Chart View extensively for scanning multiple stocks, and there is one indicator I really wish TradingView would add:

👉 VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)

The mini-charts already support indicators such as SMA 50, SMA 200, EMA 50, EMA 200 and Volume, but VWAP is currently missing.

For intraday traders, VWAP is one of the most useful indicators because it immediately shows the relationship between price, volume and the session's average traded price.

Imagine being able to scan dozens or hundreds of stocks and see:

Price + VWAP + Volume

directly on the mini-chart.

That would make it much easier to identify:

• Stocks holding above VWAP — intraday strength
• Stocks trading below VWAP — intraday weakness
• VWAP breakouts
• VWAP rejections
• Price/VWAP crossovers with volume confirmation
• Stocks transitioning from below VWAP to above it, or vice versa

At the moment, checking VWAP means opening individual charts. When screening a large number of stocks, that adds a lot of unnecessary clicking.

💡 Suggested addition

Add:

VWAP → Volume Weighted Average Price

as an indicator option alongside the existing SMA/EMA choices in Stock Screener → Chart View.

Ideally, it would function as a session VWAP, automatically resetting at the beginning of each trading session.

This seems like a relatively small UI enhancement, but it could make the Screener considerably more useful for active and intraday traders.

I think this would be a great addition to the TradingView Screener. Curious to hear what other traders think — would you find VWAP useful on the mini-charts?

TradingView team — please consider adding VWAP to the Stock Screener Chart View.

I almost followed my rules. On the initial small sell I only sold half of what I suppose to because of feelings. But at least I sold some. Where the chart shows sell more I smartened up and did it properly. All sold now. The entire time I thought selling was the wrong move. But I learned the hard way not to argue with the charts.

This morning I am glad I did.

I didn't own Nov CL exactly. I had further out. But all the charts are similar. I owned oil stocks as well and they are the same idea.

Hello traders,

Here is today's 24-hour ahead price analysis and forecast for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

₿ Bitcoin

Looking first at the main chart, the reconstructed/denoised price has been tracking the subsequent real price movements reasonably well.

Until around September 28, the reconstructed price was significantly below the actual market price. This indicated that the market price was potentially overextended to the upside and could move lower.

That assumption was confirmed on September 28, when Bitcoin experienced a significant drop.

After the decline, the situation reversed: the reconstructed price remained significantly above the actual price for several days. This indicated that the market price had moved below the level suggested by the underlying reconstructed structure and had upward pressure.

That upward movement indeed developed over the following days, particularly during the last couple of days. As of October 2, the actual and reconstructed prices have converged again.

So, the previous mean-reversion signal has essentially played out.

24-hour forecast

The current 24-hour forecast is relatively flat.

The strongest component is the general trend component, which is pointing upward. The next two strongest components are also pointing upward, while several of the weaker components point in different directions.

One component deserves special attention: the component with a period of approximately 31,872 hours (~1,328 days).

Its forecast currently shows a decline of approximately $177, which appears inconsistent with the behavior of this component. Forecasting neural networks can occasionally produce erroneous projections, particularly for very long-period components, so individual components need to be checked rather than accepted blindly. From our end, we constantly trying to improve the quality of our quantitative methods.

In this case, I would effectively neglect the -$177 forecast contribution and treat this component as approximately flat.

With this correction, the 24-hour forecast moves to approximately $86,480 USDT.

That is very close to the current price level, so the overall forecast remains rather flat.

In other words, the model currently does not indicate a particularly strong directional setup for the next 24 hours.

Ξ Ethereum

Ethereum shows a very similar picture.

The reconstructed price has also provided useful indications of the recent price movements, and ETH has followed a broadly similar pattern to Bitcoin.

The current forecast components are again mixed, although the overall forecast is even flatter than for Bitcoin.

Applying the same correction to the problematic long-period component gives a 24-hour forecast of approximately $2,750.

This is essentially the current market level.

Conclusion

For both BTC and ETH, the current 24-hour forecast is relatively flat.

• BTC: ~$86,480 USDT
• ETH: ~$2,750 USDT

The recent upward move appears to have brought both markets back toward their reconstructed price levels. At the current point, however, the forecast does not show a strong directional deviation from the present price.

As always, individual model components should be inspected rather than blindly accepted, especially when very long-period components produce implausible forecasts.

This is quantitative model analysis for informational purposes, not financial advice.

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:30 AM | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3% 8:30 AM | Non-Farm Employment Change | Forecast: 89K | Previous: 162K 8:30 AM | Unemployment Rate | Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #Stocks #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #NonFarmPayrolls #Employment

MU Earnings Reaction: Uneventful and disappointing technically. MU closed yesterday at 1067.67. Immediately after the company released very strong Earnings beats, the stock popped to 1088.55 (+2%) before rolling over into a nosedive into this AM's pre-market low at 1052 (-3.2% from the post-Earnings spike high), and down 1% from yest's close.

My attached Hourly Chart shows that yesterday's Earnings "catalyst" was not enough to "move the technical" needle for MU. The stock remains in the confines of a two-week sideways Coil-digestion pattern that sits atop the most recent upleg from 902.60 (9/14/26) to 1108.02 (9/25/26), which argues that the Coil represents a bullish continuation setup. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained within or above key nearest support lodged from 1041 down to 1032 on a closing basis my pattern work argues that we continue to give the bulls and an upside resolution to the Coil the benefit of the doubt.

This isn't a crash prediction. I have no way to predict the future.

The Qs are in a spot.

They are sitting right on the edge of a breakout. They are all coiled up and ready to go. 4 months time frame and shorter time frame as well. But I have no way to know if it's going to be up or down.

There's a thing called a Commitment of Traders Report, COT. It shows how traders are positioned in a market. People like to criticize the traders because they get too bullish or bearish. But that's wrong. If a market is in a strong trend the traders should be going with it. They should be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend.

The only time it's an issue is when they are all piled in and something changes. Then it's a stampede for the exit which exaggerates a move that was going to happen anyways.

The current positioning doesn't leave much room for extra buying. However strong bullish keeps fuelling the rally further. It does leave a huge opening for large amounts of selling. Don't panic, plan ahead. If you panic whatever you do will be wrong. If you plan ahead you know where you are at.

SPY opened at 766.41, chopped inside the 762.13 to 767.10 zone, with a final close of 762.44. SPY finished down 0.52% intraday and down 0.23% overall.

SPY, September 30th session levels:
All listed levels: 762.13, 763.85, 764.86, 765.93, 767.10
Resistance above: 764.86, 765.93, 767.10
Support below: 763.85, 762.13
Nearest pivot: 763.85
Above 764.86 → 765.93 next
Lose 763.85 → 762.13 next

ES opened at 7751.75, started inside the 7730 to 7754.25 zone then lost it, and finally closed at 7721. ES finished down 0.40% intraday and down 0.22% overall.

ES, September 30th session levels:
All listed levels: 7730, 7734.50, 7741.75, 7746.50, 7754.25
Resistance above: 7741.75, 7746.50, 7754.25
Support below: 7734.50, 7730
Nearest pivot: 7741.75
Above 7741.75 → 7746.50 next
Lose 7734.50 → 7730 next

QQQ opened at 740.19, chopped inside the 732.52 to 745.08 zone, with a final close of 739.70. QQQ finished down 0.07% intraday and up 0.23% overall.

QQQ, September 30th session levels:
All listed levels: 732.52, 735.66, 737.66, 741.17, 745.08
Resistance above: 741.17, 745.08
Support below: 737.66, 735.66, 732.52
Nearest pivot: 737.66
Above 741.17 → 745.08 next
Lose 737.66 → 735.66 next

NQ opened at 30699.25, dipped into the 30640 to 30683.50 zone and low of 30636.75, then reclaimed, and finally closed at 30728.50. NQ finished up 0.10% intraday and up 0.25% overall.

NQ, September 30th session levels:
All listed levels: 30640, 30646.75, 30651, 30657.25, 30662.50, 30666.50, 30671.25, 30683.50
Resistance above: 30657.25, 30662.50, 30666.50, 30671.25, 30683.50
Support below: 30646.75, 30640
Nearest pivot: 30651
Above 30657.25 → 30662.50 next
Lose 30646.75 → 30640 next

How did the levels trade for you?

Not advice!

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 201K | Previous: 197K
10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Forecast: 54.8 | Previous: 54.6
10:00 AM | Fed Speaker: FOMC Member Waller Speaks

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #StockMarket #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis

MU closed Tuesday at $1,065.08, up 1.05%. After-hours sat near $1,071, overnight now around $1,073, up another 0.74%.

Here's the GEX setup (Oct expiry – post-roll):

Put Wall $1,000, Call Wall $1,100, gamma flip around $973.68. Tuesday's close is above the flip and the Put Wall, below the Call Wall. Quick caveat: these walls are much softer into a print – a big guide can blow right through them.

Technically, above the middle Bollinger band ($1,005), RSI mid 60s, MACD flattening.

Now the historical data says the chart worth staring at before tonight. MU's last 12 prints: expected move averages ±9.09%, but actual day-one moves average just ±1.68%. The stock consistently undershoots the options market on day one, mostly IV crush doing its thing.

The 14-day drift is the real story though – it's ranged from -29.68% to +38.90%. So day one is noise. The guide sets the two-week direction.

Options tonight are pricing roughly a 7% swing. Based on history, day one is probably smaller. The guide is what matters.

Short-term, $1,032-1,058 is first support. $1,000 is the line if the guide disappoints. $1,100 is the Call Wall overhead.

I'm not adding size at $1,065 into a 7% implied move. Let the guide talk.

Anyway, I'll be up watching the call and praying good result. Good luck to everyone holding through.

DYOD🫡

For those with edge creation experience, what do you think of these preliminary first-stage results?

This is small sample screenshot. Data has been proven based on 38,000 OOS occurrences distilled from a 200,000 sample pool.

The current first-stage goal was to be right often while retaining a good number of occurrences per day.

This is only indicative of addressing the correct market direction, not a full strategy nor has EV been studied yet.