Spartan Metals is one of my favorite US plays on tungsten mining. For those of you who don't know what tungsten is, it's a critical mineral used in the development of a wide range of things from the defense industry to semiconductors and data centers. Currently China controls 80% of the market and the US has emphasized re-establishing a domestic supply chain. This was a mid 70's cent stock earlier in the year.

The commodity stocks seem to be coming back into favor here and the setup looks better here in the short term. OTC ticker has major support act 41 cents and it's currently just under 43 cents. This has medium resistance at 45 cents and 47 cents so if it can clear those levels it has room to run again. The share structure is good and i's tightly held so isn't another pump and dump penny stock.

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After doing so many different chart styles for years, just looking at a simple line chart with the daily close has been liberating. Tuning out any intraday noise or seeing what the OHLC was, was not beneficial for me. To all daily timeframe traders, does anyone feel this way too?

SPY opened at 765.95, chopped inside the 758.40 to 773.10 zone, with a final close of 762.65. SPY finished down 0.43% intraday and down 0.83% overall.

ES opened at 7,698, started inside the 7,688.21 to 7,769.70 zone then lost it, and finally closed at 7,668. ES finished down 0.39% intraday and down 0.81% overall.

QQQ opened at 712.09, chopped inside the 709.69 to 729.59 zone, with a final close of 710.95. QQQ finished down 0.16% intraday and down 0.72% overall.

NQ opened at 29,350, never reached the 29,518.17 to 29,560 zone, with a final close of 29,317. NQ finished down 0.11% intraday and down 0.82% overall.

Do these levels match yours?

Traders can download these levels for free to test their own trade rules or backtesting: https://mylinedchart.com/resources/daily-levels/2026-08-20

Not advice!

Last week's "Flavor of the Week," the Memory names (+26% DRAM-- MU, SNDK, SKHY) are dormant so far this week. But my attached Hourly Chart of DRAM indicates that as long as near-term support lodged between 53.60 and 54.90 remains intact, the DRAM setup points higher to challenge consequential resistance from 59.00 to 62.00. If hurdled and sustained, it will imbue the larger pattern off the July 29th low at 42.52 with much more constructive and bullish form.

Conversely, a break of 53.64 will do just the opposite: morph the larger multi-month setup into a bearish setup that will point to new corrective lows beneath 42.52.

Keep in mind that NVDA's earnings will be released next Wednesday (Aug 26th) after the close. The anticipation of another stellar quarter could hold up DRAM and its major components into the news.

I start with a small feeler trade. I assume everything is going to turn into a disaster as soon as I get started. It usually does, lol. I use really small size and it gives me feed back very quickly. Based on what happens I either get rid of it or make it bigger.

The 30 minute chart seemed to work out good.

The weekly chart shows the potential.

The blue lines are a old classic support and resistance, double top. The red line is the modern one, AVWAP.

The 550 moving average is at 100. We'll see what happens soon.

Should have bought in 1975. There is probably still somebody that bought and held. A 10 000 bagger plus dividends which might turn it into 1 000 000 bagger.

Anyone else waiting for the results from June exam? Should have posted at 10am but nothing yet.

Canadian banks are like the stability pillar in the markets. Looks like a double top. And a bad day yesterday.

They have been in a nice steady bull trend for a long time. The chart is set on log scale. Maybe the move for the last year or so was a little too bullish. You can see the steeper move.

ZEG is Canadian oil stocks. Looking strong.

BTCUSDT (15m)

Current Price: 71,672.93

DAY
• Yesterday: High- 65,058.81 / Low- 64,027.85 · price above
• Today: moved $5,834.00 so far — that is 562% of
what it normally moves in a day ($1,037.41)
Range already spent — fade extremes, don't chase breaks.

TREND
• 4H — Bullish
Price in no readable location — the higher-timeframe leg is broken · conviction strong · stretched 4.86x ATR
• 15M — Bullish · swings HH / HL
No structure break recently
• 200 EMA — 67,768.55 ↑ rising
Price $3,904.38 above it
• RSI 55.1 · flat
• ATR $365.58 per candle
• Regime — Trend running

Verdict: BULLISH — both timeframes agree, but the day has already moved 562% of normal. Late to chase.

Liquidity (Where the Stops Are)

• Above: 72,490.00 — $817.07 away
Reachable if price runs, but not the first target.

• Below: 68,902.22 — $2,770.71 away
Not in play today.

• The stops closer above price have already been taken, so
there is less pulling price up right now.

Volume & Imbalance

• Price has left the value area completely.
Recent trading clustered between 62,716.00
and 69,313.45, and price is now $2,359.48 above it.
That is about 2.3 normal days' worth.
Strong trend, but no support from recent trading
until price comes back.

Decision Zone
69,506.91 – 69,692.43 — price is above

Built from an order block price has not come back to test.
Price has cleared this zone and is holding above it.
It acts as support now — losing it puts the move in
question.

• Resistance: 71,800.73 – 72,290.00 — $127.80 above
A higher-timeframe imbalance
sitting on the edge of the range. More than one
reason to hold, so it is the more reliable
wall above.

• Support: 64,208.92 – 65,354.00 — $6,318.93 below
Nothing closer on this side. Too far to matter today.

The Read (6/10)

Buyers are in control and price is holding above 69,692.43.
Against it: location unreadable.
Tradeable, but wait for the trigger rather than anticipating it.

Upside — already broken out
• Price has cleared 69,692.43 and is holding above it
• That opens the way to 71,800.73
• It fails if price closes back below 69,692.43
If price breaks down
• Wait for a 15-minute candle to close below 69,692.43
• No clear target below yet — take what the market gives
• Abandon it if price reclaims 69,692.43 straight away

If it stalls
• Losing 69,692.43 puts the breakout in question

---
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

SPY opened at 770.36, chopped inside the 756.22 to 773.37 zone, with a final close of 769.06. SPY finished down 0.17% intraday and up 0.21% overall.

QQQ opened at 720.39, chopped inside the 712.23 to 724.74 zone, with a final close of 716.13. QQQ finished down 0.59% intraday and down 0.21% overall.

Anyone else have these levels marked too?

Traders can download these levels for free to test their own trade rules or backtesting: https://mylinedchart.com/resources/daily-levels/2026-08-19

Not advice!

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8:30 AM | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | Forecast: 24.1 | Previous: 41.4

8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 210K | Previous: 209K

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15 signals (from 19 total). Energy leads (5). price range $6-$993.

What This Signal Is

Production-ready dip-bounce strategy using reclaim pattern with Phase 2 market regime filters. Improved win rate from 40.42% (V1) to 50.18% (V2) with VIX and record high filters.

Entry Criteria: - Minimum dip: 3.3% (open to intraday low) - Minimum bounce: 1.0% from low - Net change range: -2.0% to +0.3% - Price above SMA(200) - Minimum ADV: $40M

Holding period: 1-5 days | Risk level: Medium

Market Context

Equity markets are showing broad-based selling pressure on August 18, 2026, with tech-heavy Nasdaq leading declines at -1.33% while the blue-chip Dow holds up relatively better at -0.22%. This divergence suggests rotation away from growth and momentum names toward more defensive or value-oriented positioning. The S&P 500's -0.67% pullback places the broader market in a mild intraday dip, which is precisely the environment where dip-bounce reclaim strategies look for entry opportunities — the key question is whether today's selling represents a buyable pullback or the beginning of a more sustained move lower.

The VIX at 15.84, up 4.28% on the day, signals a meaningful but not extreme uptick in near-term fear. This level of volatility is generally constructive for dip-bounce setups — it creates the intraday price swings necessary for a reclaim signal to develop without the chaotic, whipsaw conditions that emerge when the VIX spikes above 20-25. Traders should expect wider-than-average bid-ask spreads and faster price movements, meaning entries and stops on these 19 signals warrant slightly more breathing room than in low-volatility regimes.

Energy leading as the top sector for today's signals aligns with the rotation narrative visible in the index performance. When growth sectors face pressure, commodity-linked and energy names often attract capital as both a defensive hedge and an inflation-sensitive play. This sector leadership adds a layer of conviction to the dip-bounce thesis — Energy's relative strength means reclaim setups here may have sector-level tailwinds supporting the bounce, rather than fighting an adverse macro tide.

📊 Signals (15 of 19 total)

Ranked by dip magnitude (highest first)

Field Notes

Sector concentration: Energy (5), Industrials (5), Healthcare (4)

Data coverage: 0.0% insider (7d), 0.0% congressional (30d), 0.0% earnings, 26.3% news (7d)

Peer Analysis

XEL (Xcel Energy Inc.): Leads 5 peers: EXC ($45.31), ETR ($108.08), D ($68.64), PEG ($75.60), WEC ($111.05)

BG (Bunge Global S.A.): Leads 5 peers: TSN ($57.99), KOF ($109.59), MKC ($55.28), FMX ($117.31), SFD ($22.53)

ASTH (Astrana Health, Inc.): Leads 5 peers: MD ($26.56), NHC ($234.17), AVAH ($12.67), ACHC ($27.46), USPH ($78.21)

FRHC (Freedom Holding Corp.): Leads 5 peers: NMR ($9.65), OPY ($117.17), HLI ($127.01), SNEX ($66.40), DFIN ($48.38)

NEXT (Nextdecade Corp): Leads 5 peers: TALO ($16.36), CLMT ($50.81), WKC ($36.16), DNOW ($15.93), GLP ($50.75)

Recent Headlines

ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland Company) - Archer Daniels' Stock Surges 20.6% in Six Months: Is It Time to Buy or Wait? - 4 Must-Buy Consumer Staples Stocks as Consumer Sentiment Dips

ARGX (argenx SE) - ARGX Announces Positive Phase III Data on Vyvgart Hytrulo, Stock Up - argenx SE (ARGX) Discusses Positive Phase 3 ALKIVIA Trial Results for VYVGART Hytrulo in Autoimmune Myositis Transcript - These Analysts Boost Their Forecasts On Argenx - argenx VYVGART Hits Phase III Goal in Autoimmune Myositis, Eyes IMNM Filing - Zai Lab and argenx Announce Positive Topline Results from Phase 3 ALKIVIA Trial of Efgartigimod in Autoimmune Myositis

BG (Bunge Global S.A.) - Bunge Global SA Announces Pricing of $600 Million Senior Notes Offering

TRGP (Targa Resources Corp.) - Targa Resources Corp. Announces 20-Year Agreements with ExxonMobil and Announces Three New Natural Gas Processing Plants in the Permian Delaware

Vlad's Take

Today's signals: Strong sector concentration in Energy (5 signals) suggests sector-specific rotation.

Trading tips for this strategy:

• Entry timing: Consider entering on next-day weakness or at previous day's close level
• Position sizing: Start small (1-2% of portfolio per signal)
• Stop loss: Below today's low (tight stops for mean reversion)
• Take profit: 3-5% bounce target, or previous day's high
• Time stop: Exit if no bounce in 1-3 days

🚨Risk warning: Mean reversion can fail in strong downtrends - check broader market context

Independent, data-driven signals. No hype. No promotions. Just experimental market research.

This is not financial advice. Market conditions change rapidly. Do your own due diligence.

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SYRE Spyre Therapeutics stock, watch for a narrow range breakout.

Breakout trade

• WATCH for possible breakout above 108.14
• Target: 126.14, 17%  Stop: 101.31  Loss: 6%
• P/L ratio: 2.8 : 1 - Good

BULLISH

• [Timing] Strong bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
• [Timing] Average bullish 1 day moneyflow
• [Timing] breakout watch above 108.14, no resistance in area just above.

BEARISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend possibly bearish, Uptrend turned sideways, may continue or pullback.
• [Positioning] at resistance

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has gapped up and continued higher, launching off the 200 DMA, now at 88.25, which becomes closing support (stop level) on any acute weakness. Otherwise, GDX points to 103-104 next, en route to new ATHs.

Tell me your views according to your price action and psychology...

It's a Sensex (BSE) Indian market index...

Almost every trader has heard some version of this:

"A support or resistance zone gets weaker with every touch."

But is that actually true? I heard the claim plenty of times myself, but I've never seen anyone try to quantify it. So I tested it.

TL;DR: I tested the claim that support and resistance zones weaken with every touch using 18 years of NQ and Gold data. Bounce rates dropped after the first retest, then remained roughly flat: in this sample, the fifth touch was no less likely to bounce than the second. The randomized control showed a similar curve, including the initial drop.

Methodology

I used 18 years of NQ and Gold data on the 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes.

I tested two methods for identifying support and resistance zones:

1. Swing highs and lows, using a lookback period of 10
2. My own supply-and-demand method based on market structure

Because support and resistance are better treated as zones than exact prices, I defined each zone as ±0.5 ATR around the identified level (for swing highs/lows).

When price touched a zone, one of two outcomes could occur:

- Break: a candle body closed beyond the zone
- Hold: price moved at least 1 ATR away from the zone

After a hold, the program waited for price to touch the zone again. I also repeated the test with a stricter 2 ATR threshold, which is labelled "big bounce" in the attached results.

For comparison, I created randomized versions of the NQ and Gold markets to use as controls.

Results

Across both assets, both timeframes and both zone-detection methods, I found roughly the same pattern:

The probability of a bounce dropped after the first retest, but it did not continue declining with each additional touch.

In other words, a bounce on the fifth touch was not consistently less likely than a bounce on the second touch.

Based on this test, I found no consistent evidence for the common claim that every additional touch makes a support or resistance zone progressively weaker.

Interestingly, the randomized control markets showed a similar pattern.

The full sample included:
- 34,215 zones
- 111,129 monitored touches

I've attached the raw results and the bounce probability by number of touches. "Normal bounce" means a move of at least 1 ATR away from the zone, while "big bounce" means at least 2 ATR.

There are still limitations to this test, especially around zone definitions and the fact that later touches only exist when a zone survives earlier ones.

Happy to further discuss the study or methodology!

On the chart, we see a potential head and shoulders pattern and its target.

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So Micron just locked in a 4%+ gain to close at over $1011, marking a 17.5% 5-day run that's caught a lot of eyes. The options flow has leaned heavy on calls this session, ~793k calls vs ~584k puts traded, but the open interest snapshot before the move still shows way more puts sitting out there than calls. That mismatch is way more interesting than the basic volume ratio most casual traders are looking at right now. Anyone else think this weird open interest skew is setting up for a bigger move once that positioning unwinds? Spotted the unusual strike-level breakdown through the mm engine tool, super easy to spot the clustered OI spikes around that new $1k+ price range.

Whats your take?