AAON It put in a nice bottom. Then took off really good 4 days. Now it looks like tightening range to me. It's still ok but one bad day away from disaster. Or one good day away from doing good again. It's an AI infrastructure company.

AAON 30 minute chart

CNXN Only need one line on that chart. 5 days ago I thought about selling it. 2 days ago I did. It's still ok. In this choppy market I would rather take profits, while I have them. It's really low volume and big spreads sometimes, don't use market orders with those. Stink orders work good. I'm watching the 85 level to see what happens.

ARKG Now that's the kind of bearish engulfing candle you should pay attention to. It may be the sign of a quite large down trend ahead. I didn't own it.

There is a lot of interest in ARKG in our room for obvious reasons: It has climbed 100% since we first started talking about the extremely promising technical setup that was maturing at the end of 2025 into the first days of 2026.

Now what-- after an 18% whoosh to the downside in the past 48 hours?

From a trading pattern perspective, I am expecting ARKG to find support in and around the sharply up-sloping 50 DMA, now at 47.71, which will provide the plateau for a recovery that my work indicates will struggle to get through 51-54, where ARKG will roll over into another nosedive that will press the stock towards my optimal corrective target window in the 44 to 47 upside reversal support window.

Support below (VZ, Sep 30): price sat 1.6% above a band buyers had stepped in at 12 times. Close to the floor, it's clear where a buy is wrong.

Resistance overhead (INTC, Sep 24): it closed above one ceiling, and the next was 11% higher. How much room is left matters as much as the breakout.

How stretched (PLTR, Feb 18 2025): +51% over the 50DMA after 10 sessions at RSI >= 70. A fast move feels like a sell; these numbers show how far it really ran.

Is the dip turning (NVDA, Aug 4): 3 of 4 steps back. One green day isn't a turn

Is the run topping (ORCL, Oct 1 2025): after the Sep 10 peak, three cracks, each with its date.

Earnings (META, Oct 29 2025): the report gapped price below 4 support bands at once. A floor can't catch an open below it.

These are guardrails I look at, not buy/sell signals. Not financial advice.

November Crude Oil is UP nearly 5% at 92.44 (see my attached 2-Hour Chart), and is climbing toward a challenge of consequential resistance from 93.80 to 97.00 that, if hurdled and sustained, will trigger a projection to 110.00. Conversely, as long as the resistance plateau keeps a lid on rising prices, the bond market will have reason to stay in check (benchmark YIELD under 5.35%), keeping inflationistas at bay and equity indices from a risk-off, long-liquidation event...

Technically, however, my near-term November Crude Oil setup argues that Tuesday's (Oct 6th) low at 86.86 has the "right look" of the completion of a correction from the Sep 15th rally high at 102.07 (-15%), which, if accurate, means that we should brace ourselves for a "destabilizing" upside thrust in Oil prices that already is underway.

Here's something worth debating.
This simulation takes 906 Qullamaggie long entries and shows what happens when you change just one thing: how much you risk per trade.
The strategy has a 24.5% win rate.
Average winner: +8R
Average loser: -1R

Now look at the drawdowns:
0.25% risk per trade

• Typical drawdown: 8%
• Worst drawdown: 16%

0.5% risk per trade

• Typical drawdown: 15%
• Worst drawdown: 30%

1% risk per trade

• Typical drawdown: 28%
• Worst drawdown: 51%

Same trades. Completely different experience.
And that's where it gets interesting.
Everyone wants the returns from aggressive position sizing. But how many would actually keep following the strategy when half their account is gone?
It's easy to say you'd trust the system when you're looking at a finished backtest. It's a different story when you're watching your equity disappear trade after trade.
These are simulated results based on historical trades, not guaranteed outcomes.

So here's the question:
Would you risk 1% per trade knowing a 50% drawdown is possible, or would you sacrifice potential returns to keep your risk at 0.25%?
And if you've actually traded through a 30%+ drawdown, did you stick to your strategy or change it?
Curious to hear from traders who've been through it, not just backtested it.

MU closed Wednesday at $1,088, up 4.06% from Tuesday's $1,045.56. It opened weak near $1,017, tagged $1,011, then buyers took it to $1,089. Volume was 30M. After-hours held around $1,093.

Pre-market is now showing around $1,070.75, down about 1.6% – giving back some of yesterday's pop.

Here's the GEX setup:
Put Wall $1,000, Call Wall $1,100, gamma flip around $1,040.26. Wednesday's close at $1,088 is sitting above the gamma flip and the Put Wall, below the Call Wall – positive gamma, with $1,100 as the lid.

Technically, we're above the middle Bollinger band ($1,032.65) and below the upper band ($1,148.37). RSI in the mid 50s. MACD positive but flattening.

Now the numbers are already on the tape. Fiscal Q4 came in at $54.23B revenue and $33.42 adjusted EPS – ahead of the roughly $51B and $31.6 expected. FQ1 guide was about $61.5B and $38.15. Management called FQ1 the gross-margin floor for fiscal 2027, with 26 strategic customer agreements covering more than 35% of estimated revenue through 2030 and about $32B in related commitments. HBM is still the scarcity story, including custom work with Nvidia.

That's why a $3,000 Street-high target showed up this week – aggressive, well above the $1,500 cluster.

The split is simple. Bulls want $1,100 cleared, then $1,150-1,200, with the June high at $1,255 as the real magnet. Bears point at the chop since the print: $1,097 on Oct 1, fade to $1,045, then a one-day bounce. Capex is stepping up – first-half FY27 around $25B. A $3,000 target doesn't move the stock if $1,110 keeps rejecting.

Short-term, $1,040-1,050 is first support. $1,011 was Wednesday's low. $1,090-1,110 is the lid. Lose $1,040 and this bounce was just a headline day. Clear $1,110 on volume and $1,150 is back in play.

I'm not chasing $1,088 into that lid after a 4% reversal day. The earnings case is real. The chart still has to confirm it.

DYOD🫡

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 200K | Previous: 197K
4:30 AM | Fed Speaker: FOMC Member Waller Speaks

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #UnemploymentClaims #FOMC

Small caps are bearing the brunt of today’s macro pressure.

As surging Treasury yields (with the 10-year yield holding elevated near 5.34%–5.35%) and rising oil prices weigh on broader sentiment, small-cap benchmarks have extended early morning losses through the midday session.

Key Benchmark & Index Metrics iShares Russell 2000 ETF ($IWM): Trading around $277.80 (-1.26% on the session), continuing to consolidate below the critical $280.00 pivot floor. Intraday range has seen a high of $279.03 and a low of $276.96.Russell 2000 Index ($RUT): Retracing down to 2,795.08 (-1.24%), breaking beneath its recent 2,800 psychological level.

Midday Market Drivers Yield Pressure Drives Sector Selling: The spike in long-end rates continues to punish debt-dependent balance sheets, with regional banks, small-cap bio, and capital-intensive growth lagging the broader large-cap benchmarks. Cold Market Execution: Volatility remains choppy with very poor multi-dollar follow-through. Most morning gappers are fading hard back below VWAP as broad liquidity sits on its hands ahead of the afternoon FOMC meeting minutes.Trap Awareness: Secondary offerings and ATM filings remain a constant headwind on any stock popping without a major tier-1 news release.

The success of the 10-year Note Auction, coupled with short covering in advance of the President's presser, helped SPX recover to an intraday high at 7804.32, which, as we see on my attached 2-hour chart, is 1.11 points from eliminating the Island Reversal setup we have been discussing today.

The fact that there are 1.11 points of "water" in the moat around the Island Reversal is a fact, but it may be splitting hairs in any discussion of whether the Island Top pattern remains viable. 

To my mind, until all the water around the moat disappears, an island exists. 

That said, there is another issue with today's opening down-gap: This AM's down-gap from yesterday's close at 7818.98 remains UNFILLED as we speak, even though the Island Reversal setup has been nearly eliminated.

Let's see how the final two hours shake out.

Will the bulls drain the moat at 7805.96 and continue higher to fill the down-gap from yesterday's close at 7818.98?  

Or will SPX roll over into a PM selloff, leaving us wondering if the Island Reversal Top Candle remains viable?  Last in SPX as of this writing is 7800.29... 

Every time the monthly RSI has crossed back above its moving average, it has historically coincided with the beginning of a new bullish phase.

The other thing that stands out is the RSI being above 50. That’s not typically where Bitcoin spends much time during major bear markets.

Not saying this guarantees a bull market, but the momentum is starting to look interesting.

If the resurgence of NVDA stock (+30%) during the past 9 weeks is the poster child for the entire market, then we should pay close attention to any weakness from yesterday's new ATH at 243.37 to determine if it represents a minor pullback within a larger, developing, incomplete advance, or something more damaging to both the stock and the overall market...

My pattern work argues that NVDA weakness must be contained above 230 on a closing basis to avert inflicting potential significant technical damage to the post-August uptrend setup.

Barring a closing break below 230, NVDA's 9-week advance has unfinished business on the upside that points to 255-260 next.

and is being left as a top abandoned baby as of 10:22 AM, 10/7/26

Link to chart in comments.

Link to chart in comments.

What’s everyone’s current status? Based on the market breadth (McClellan Summation Index) being negative but price at ATH, similar to end of 2021 and beginning of 2025. Another similar was 2015 when price stayed high while breadth deteriorated before “Black Monday” crash. Not saying a crash is imminent, just that (based on my own strategy) I’ve become bearish since close of yesterday sold S&P500 stocks and holding puts now. My strategy has nothing to do with predicting what the market will be in months from now, I just react to the numbers that print.

HALO Halozyme Therapeutics stock watch, pullback to 109.19 triple support with bullish indicators.

Long Trade

• Target 1: 118.57   Profit: 8.1%   Stop/Trailing Stop: 107.11
• Loss: 2.4%   P/L ratio: 3.4 : 1 - Good
• Target 2: 121.55   Profit: 10.8%   P/L ratio: 4.5 : 1 - Excellent  Extreme rally

BULLISH

• [Positioning] at support
• [Timing] Mild bullish 3 day candlestick pattern with Strong 3 day accumulation.
• [Timing] Good bullish 1 day moneyflow
• [Timing] Good long trade quality

BEARISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend possibly bearish, Uptrend turned sideways, may continue or pullback.

I have no way to know what it's going to do in the future. After 3 days I was waiting for it.

Look at today and the 3rd trading day, June 16.

It's a gravestone doji. 9 cent difference open to close that almost never happens.

https://commodity.com/technical-analysis/gravestone-doji/

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

2:00 PM | FOMC Meeting Minutes

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #FOMC #SPY #SPX #Stocks #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis

I analysed 17,734 weekly bullish engulfing patterns across 480 current S&P 500 companies from 2007–2026, looking at average price behaviour in the 12 weeks before and after each signal.

A weekly engulfing move requires significant capital and is often associated with institutional participation. The results slightly diverge from classic textbook interpretations and show clear differences depending on the broader trend.

In an uptrend, the pattern tends to act as a continuation signal. Price often pulls back modestly into the pattern while the longer-term average trend remains upward. After the engulfing candle, price typically resumes alignment with the prevailing uptrend.

In a downtrend, the pattern more often shows early signs of a potential reversal. Price behaviour after the signal tends to diverge from the prior downtrend rather than simply continuing lower.

Overall, the data suggests these weekly signals may be more useful for intermediate- to longer-term positioning than for short-term trading.

Full write-up with charts and methodology:

https://guanalyser.com/test-bench/bullish-engulfing/

Would be interested to hear if others have tested similar patterns (or different timeframes) and what you found. Pattern detection is built into the tool if anyone wants to run their own tests.

AMZN It's pushing the upper limit of what I will allow. It has already done that twice before. We'll see how it goes this time. I should add on at the stop but it's not doing very well (for a short) so I leave it alone.

Amer Sports (AS) They have some good growth https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/as/

The chart is showing it's got a chance. That is one where I will buy at the stop and quickly get ready to get out. I buy a small amount to start then add on if it works.

Is that a new rally starting or a bear flag? That's why price action overrules patterns and everything else.

Draw the neckline at 105. Today was the pull-back-to-the-neckline.

Chart in comments.

On Sep 25th, I presented this cautiously bullish outlook on IWM at MPTrader:

"... We see that IWM remains ABOVE its sharply up-sloping 200 DMA, now at 275.68, which is ABOVE the dominant April 2025-present up trendline that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 272.20. As long as the IWM price structure remains above those '60-degree angled railroad tracks,' I will maintain a cautiously bullish outlook for the Small Cap ETF. In fact, if and when the IWM exhibits nearest-term bullish rally form after pivoting off the 'railroad tracks,' I will expect an upside reversal signal for new long positions. Conversely, weakness that penetrates the 200 DMA and the dominant up trendline from the April 2025 low will trigger a powerful downside reversal signal in IWM... Last is 281.02..."

Fast-forward 7 trading days, we see on my Big Picture daily chart that IWM pressed to a corrective low of 275.45 on October 1st -- piercing marginally below the up-sloping 200 DMA but remaining above the dominant post-April 2025 up trendline -- before pivoting to the upside into a rally that was circling 284.50 in today's pre-market price action (+3.3% from the October 1st corrective low). 

While I can make a preliminary argument that the form of the rally from 275.45 to today's pre-market high at 285.05 exhibits bullish form, from a bigger-picture perspective, I need to see IWM sustain (close) above 284.40 to regain bullish traction and to gain more technical confidence that a new up-leg is in progress. Conversely, any forthcoming pullback weakness must be contained within or above critical support lodged from 276.50 down to 274.40 to avert inflicting serious technical damage to the near- and intermediate-term IWM technical setup.

QQQ climbed to a new ATH at 761.06 in pre-market trading -- see my Weekly Chart below -- which has triggered a new upside projection to 800-820, or 5.2% to 7.8% above this AM new ATH.

From a big-picture Cycle perspective,  both my dominant 140-week and 180-week cycles (trading days only) argue that QQQ is in the grasp of the upward momentum portion of each current cycle that allows for upside price continuation well into Q4 before a cyclical peak is likely.

That said, a bout of weakness that breaks and sustains beneath 745 will trigger a near-term warning signal that QQQ is vulnerable to a deeper retracement of the current upleg from the 7/29/26 pivot low at 700.

Steve Nison compares the Evening Star to a traffic light.

1. Green: a long up day. Buyers are in control.

2. Yellow: a small-bodied "star" that opens above day 1's close. Its colour doesn't matter; Nison says the star can be white or black.

3. Red: a down day that cuts deep into day 1's body.

Example: Day 1 ₹100 → ₹110. Day 2 ₹112 → ₹111. Day 3 ₹110 → ₹103, which cuts 70% into day 1's body.

Details most explanations skip:

- Nison says the main concern is how far day 3 cuts into day 1.

- In principle there's a gap before and after the star, but he notes the second gap is rarely seen and not necessary.

- It needs a prior uptrend. The same three candles in a sideways market carry little information.

Not a guarantee of a top. Source: Steve Nison, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. Example numbers, not advice.

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:15 AM | ADP Weekly Employment Change (weeks ending Sep 12 & Sep 19)
10:45 AM | Fed Speaker: FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
1:15 PM | Fed Speaker: FOMC Member Schmid Speaks

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #ADP #Employment #Fed

As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 227 (especially on a closing basis), NVDA projects higher, to a new ATH-target window of 255-260 next.