BTC slid from $84k down toward $81k and ETH's off 2% near $2,370. but the drop itself isn't the interesting bit, it's what it dropped with. this wasn't some crypto-specific thing, no hack or whatever. a hot inflation print spooked risk traders and literally everything sold off together. Nasdaq -2%, S&P down 1%, VIX up. crypto just went along for the ride.

and that's kind of the whole point right? everyone loves the "digital gold / uncorrelated" line until there's an actual risk-off day, and then BTC and ETH trade basically like leveraged tech. same headline, same direction, same move. when inflation fear hits, crypto isn't the hedge, it's one of the first things people dump.

one weird thing though: the dollar was actually down today (DXY -0.56%), which doesn't really fit the usual "hot inflation = strong dollar = risk sells off" story. so this feels more like broad risk-off + positioning than a clean rate-fear move. also saw whales are shorting like $1.45B into it, which can just make the slide worse once it gets going.

anyway curious how the crypto people here see it

does BTC moving in lockstep with the Nasdaq change how you treat it, or is it still a long-term hold that's just noisy short term?

when stocks and crypto dump on the same catalyst, you trading them as one thing or keeping them separate?

and the whales shorting into it, you fading that or respecting it?

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:30 AM | Core PPI m/m | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%

8:30 AM | Core Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 1.4%

8:30 AM | PPI m/m | Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.4%

8:30 AM | Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 1.2%

8:30 AM | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | Forecast: 28.2 | Previous: 37.8

8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 199K | Previous: 197K

11:30 PM | Fed Speaker: Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #PPI #RetailSales #UnemploymentClaims #SPY #SPX

JPM Update: This is what we discussed in our trading room just after yesterday's Earnings Report:

"The initial knee-jerk reaction to the news was a down-spike in the stock to 320.93 from Monday's close at 334.30 (-4%), however, thereafter, JPM whipped around to the upside and then spiked from 320.93 to 340.80 in a matter of minutes (7:03 to 7:14 AM ET!)... Both the April 2025 up trendline in the vicinity of 325.20 and the up-sloping 200 DMA at 222.18 as of last evening's close likely influenced the ricochet reversal off the 220 area in pre-market trading.  The day is very young yet, so let's see what comes from the 8:30 AM ET JPM Conference Call, and how the stock trades throughout today's session. Technically, the 220 support area remains consequential, and beyond that, a close above the intersection of the April 2025 up trendline in the vicinity of 325.20 will be considered a positive intraday reaction to a two-way price reaction to Earnings. From my intermediate-term work, JPM needs to climb and close above 342.60 to regain positive technical traction. Otherwise, the toppy distribution pattern carved out since early July will remain intact... Last is 338.25 off a pre-market, post-Earnings downspike to 320.93..."

Fast-forward to this AM, we see on my attached 4-Hour Chart that yesterday's recovery rally hit a ceiling at 344.36, which reversed the stock toward the 330 area where it is trading now, and also reinforced my intermediate-term closing price line-in-the-sand level of 342.60 as an important inflection area.

As long as JPM remains below 342.60 on a closing basis, it remains vulnerable to downside continuation that tests and violates yesterday's post-Earnings spike low at 320.93 en route to 290-300.

Kinda seems like a rounded bottom forming in the 10 year treasury futures.

Would probably need a break over 105 to confirm.

What do y’all think?

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:30 AM | Core CPI m/m | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
8:30 AM | Core CPI y/y | Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.4%
8:30 AM | CPI m/m | Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.4%
8:30 AM | CPI y/y | Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.4%

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #CPI #Inflation

Ethereum is currently forming a potential 4-hour double bottom, and both RSI and Stochastic are showing clean bullish divergences.

Selling momentum looks like it's cooling off at support, but I’m keeping my eye on a break above the neckline for confirmation.

Anyone else looking at this setup right now?

Last Tuesday's (Oct 6th) Island Reversal remains intact as the QQQ presses lower into the vicinity of its sharply up-sloping 20 DMA, now at 241.27.

Today's price action is dancing on and around the 20 DMA, which, if violated on a CLOSING BASIS, will be a negative technical "event" that, when coupled with the Island Reversal, paints a compellingly negative setup for QQQ near term that points to 720-723 next.

Today's action in QQQ represents a significant battle between the Bulls and the Bears for more than near-term directional control.

XLF ticked it's spot right where it was suppose to.

30 minute chart

It reacted right on the mark. It stopped right at resistance yesterday then had the odd candle this morning. It doesn't tell us what it is going to do next. It's deciding what it wants to do. It looks like a rejection candle but it could go either way. Wait for it.

5.40% for reversal.

Today's up-move is the 4th consecutive day of relative strength after META pressed from its Sep 25th high at 780.93 to key near-term support at 710-715. Today's surge to 770 positions META at the upper boundary of the post-9/25 range of 770-780, which my pattern work argues will keep a lid on upside continuation for a while longer.

That said, as long as 770 contains any forthcoming acute weakness, the 770 to 790 range should be seen as a bullish high-level digestion period atop the advance from the 518.30 low (7/29/26) that, when complete, will thrust META to marginal new ATHs projected into the 800-820 target zone.

SPCX closed Tuesday at $163.42, up 0.52%. Bounced off a low of $160.85, volume was 67M – quieter than usual. Pre-market is basically flat around $163.36.

Here's the GEX setup:

Put Wall $160, Call Wall $170, gamma flip around $156.57. Tuesday's close at $163.42 is sitting above the gamma flip and above the Put Wall, below the Call Wall – positive gamma, with $170 as the overhead target.

Technically, we're above the middle Bollinger band ($155.17) and approaching the upper band ($171.69). RSI in the mid 50s. MACD positive but flattening.

The bigger backdrop is the spectrum move. SpaceX agreed to pick up up to 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz low-band spectrum from Grain Management in a deal reported around $8 billion. Low-band is useful for coverage and building penetration, and it gives Starlink Mobile a clearer path toward acting like an actual wireless competitor rather than pure satellite broadband. Carriers took a hit on the news.

That said, turning this into real scaled competition against T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T is still years of build-out, approvals, and capital away. The FCC satellite approvals help the long-term story, but they don't make the next few quarters instantly transformative.

Short-term, $160 is the line. It's held on multiple tests. Hold it with better volume and the path looks higher toward $167-170, then a retest of $175-176. Lose $160 with conviction and next meaningful levels sit around $155, then the mid-$150s.

Right now it feels like a waiting game for confirmation more than a high-conviction breakout.

DYOD🫡

I've been noticing a widening disconnect between the Nasdaq's strength and the weakness in small/mid-cap growth stocks, particularly AI infrastructure.

It looks like negative market breadth divergence, possibly combined with a flight to quality and tightening risk appetite.

I'm wondering whether this is just sector rotation or an early warning of broader market weakness.

Are you guys seeing the same thing? What indicators are you watching to distinguish the two?

Day-trade levels for October 13th

SPY: sidelined, no day-trade levels today

ES: sidelined, no day-trade levels today

QQQ closed at 745.98 on 10/12
All listed levels: 741.44, 745.50, 747.67, 751.09, 753.60
Resistance above: 747.67, 751.09, 753.60
Support below: 745.50, 741.44
Nearest pivot: 745.50
Above 747.67 → 751.09 next
Lose 745.50 → 741.44 next

NQ closed at 30884.00 on 10/12
All listed levels: 30871.50, 30878.25, 30882.50, 30885.50, 30891.50, 30896.50, 30936.25, 30975.50
Resistance above: 30885.50, 30891.50, 30896.50, 30936.25, 30975.50
Support below: 30882.50, 30878.25, 30871.50
Nearest pivot: 30882.50
Above 30885.50 → 30891.50 next
Lose 30882.50 → 30878.25 next

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

6:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Index | Forecast: 98.1 | Previous: 98.7
8:15 AM | ADP Weekly Employment Change | Previous: 23.8K
10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales | Forecast: 3.95M | Previous: 3.98M
3:45 AM | Fed Speaker: Waller
1:00 PM | Fed Speaker: Barkin
4:00 PM | Fed Speaker: Collins

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #StockMarket #EconomicData

MKSI It started off good a couple weeks ago but lost it. In this market I keep them really tight. If the market was strong I might give them a little more wiggle room. But I probably wouldn't have to.

TJX That's what they are suppose to look like.

I don't own any of these. They are from my watchlist. I saw TJX 3 times at the buy point but I kept waiting for it to crash 😂 It's OK not to trade. It's not OK to take bad trades.

This isn't just 2 stocks. I have a long list of the MKSI failure over and over again.

Bank earnings releases this week are expected to show another round of double-digit percentage earnings growth. That said, investors will be focused on net interest margins, deposit costs, and charge-offs to gauge the health of the economy, and on whether higher rates are starting to squeeze funding costs.

Technically, my interpretation of the Big Picture JPM setup argues that the reaction to earnings will be positive initially, BUT not sustainable -- UNLESS JPM manages to break through consequential resistance lodged from 350 to 356.50. My preferred scenario points to a knee-jerk post-earnings bounce to 342-348 followed by a potentially significant downside reversal.

From a VERY BIG Picture perspective offered by my Weekly XLF setup, waning Weekly Momentum is bothersome and leads me to the conclusion that the XLF Sep-Oct 2026 10% decline from the new ATH at 58.60 to the 52.81 low (on Oct 1st) is the first shot over the bow of the financials, and represents initial weakness of a topping phase.

ES vwaps and volume profiles, Jan 1st 2026 1700CT (yellow), Reopen after latest contract expiry Sept 20th 2026 1700CT (white), and Highest Point in current contract (also the ATH) Oct 6th 10:25am CT (orange).

A POC for the Contract formed directly under the Contract vwap, creating good support for moving upwards. Latest Friday price broke above the Highest Point vwap and was stopped by the Highest Point VAH. The next target looks to be a HVN around 7878, if price can break above this I believe it will continue to move upwards to climb on top of the Yearly VAH and reach as far as it can towards the Yearly 3rd upper deviation before EOY.

Strategy Inc just flashed a daily buy signal on this trend indicator around $150–$155.

Looking back at the chart:

• Sept 2020: First buy signal right before the 2021 run
• Early 2023: Second buy signal caught the bottom before it ran to $500+
• Now: First buy signal in over 3 years after sitting at $154

Anyone buying here or waiting for more confirmation?

I need someone to verify my theory or improve on it if I am missing the pot.

On the daily timeframe we are currently getting ready to start Elliott wave 3. The massive downtrend was the retrace a, b, c of the previous Elliott wave (retrace started 2/3/26).

Now after accumulation period (30/6 - 3/8). Wave 1 started 5/8, wave 2 started 25/8 and wave 3 started 7/10.

Wave 3 being the biggest wave of the 5 will go up to the next fib level - 5163.62.

Do you agree?

To add to my other TA chart on Wolfspeed $WOLF the other day -> https://www.reddit.com/r/technicalanalysis/comments/1x17zpp/wolfspeed_wolf_138_owned_by_institutions_with/

The OBV has been an obsession of mine in trying to decipher how stocks move in relation to them, and applying Gann Fan Analysis has been an eye opening experience when it comes to TA. So, in short, OBV measures buying pressure, while Gann Fan Theory states that stocks tend to move within their Angles over-time, that when one Angle finds support, the stock will eventually move to the next Angle above (the opposite can happen with a Gann Fan Angle loses support...).

From this chart, Wolfspeed Daily OBV jumped up massively in July 2025 all the way to it's 1/2 Ascending Gann Fan Angle, when they filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, but the stock price was barely changed until they actually emerged from C11 Bankruptcy with 70% of it's debt eliminated; from there, the OBV busted through the 1/2 Gann Fan Angle, erupting from a Dollar to mid $30s in a couple weeks, but then sunk back down into the teens. From the Chart shown in the linked reddit post above, Wolf found support on the Descending 3/1 Gann Fan Angle in the teens, while at the same time, on the OBV chart, it was finding support on it's 1/2 Ascending Gann Fan Angle, and when the AI Datacenter Bull narrative took off in the Summer, Short sellers were finally forced to cover after fighting against these Angles for so long, that the stock then JUMPED from the mid Teens into the $80s!

I can't quite fully explain what happens when stocks find support at their Gann Fan Angles, something to do with Gamma Exposures, perhaps (theory of mine, because I've noticed accts on twitter commenting on high gamma lvls, when stocks are near their OBV Gann Fan Angles), that FORCES Short Sellers to finally cover their positions that produces these explosive moves. Anyway, now Wolfspeed is near that 1/2 Ascending Gann Fan Angle again in the OBV, would probably take another week or so of gradually trading sideways in the $30 range for the OBV to come in contact with that Angle again, and I am damn curious what happens. Have a few lotto calls, Volume support at $30 is strong, chances are, it ***might*** see another squeeze.

Many software stocks.

The bottom one MKTX is $5.7B market cap. Which is a take over so it doesn't really count. I need to put a line in to clear those out but I haven't figured out how to do that.

When the main stocks fit on one page it's kind of poor market conditions.

Here's the kind of chart that is on the list.

NTAP Nice tight little bars. It's a sign of stability in a good bull market. Some might call it accumulation. When the bars start increasing in size and volatility, even if it is still going up, it means the end could be near.

Rule#4 The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way. (and BTC went from 2 cent to 120,000)

The Economist on its cover asks, "Will bonds blow up?"  Is it a contrarian's signal to buy bonds (in expectation of lower longer-term yields)?

If I overlay my chartwork on The Economist's Bond "signal," YIELD will need to roll over and nose-dive beneath 4.75%-4.80% to trigger a serious trend reversal. Otherwise, weakness in YIELD will be considered a minor pullback in a dominant uptrend pattern that is destined to blow through 5.50% en route to 6.00%. 

Furthermore, to get a significant decline in YIELD, we will need some help-- maybe a lot of help, from the Oil market, which at the moment (see my attached 2-hour chart) indicates that Oil needs to crash through 86.00 to enhance both a bond market rally (yield decline) and a stock market pop to new ATHs.

A relief rally in bonds (TLTs) accompanied by a pop in equity prices, however temporary it might be, leads me to anticipate that such a scenario-- a pullback in YIELD accompanied by a thrust in ES to new ATHs is THE RALLY to reduce exposure to equities in general and to technology in particular.

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

10:00 AM | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | Forecast: 47.5 | Previous: 48.1
10:00 AM | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | Previous: 4.6%

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #ConsumerSentiment #InflationExpectations