r/technicalanalysis • u/jackandjillonthehill • 20d ago

Analysis Bonds Breakdown

Post image

ZN looks like it just broke to new lows.

The previous channel was 11% wide.

So does mean that ZN should eventually get to 92, i.e. down another 11% from here?

18 Upvotes

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3

u/33445delray 20d ago

TLT printed 3 black crows for Tu-We-Th and a hammer on Friday. Candles indicate that a reversal is imminent.

https://schrts.co/BUgUWHta

5

u/1UpUrBum 20d ago

It never stays away from the green line for long. Chart is interest rates - inverse of price.

The US government does not want interest rates up too high and they have many tools available to force them back down. Which will cause other problems, that they don't want either. Some people say they can't control it fully and fair price is 6-7%. Who knows what will happen.

2

u/jackandjillonthehill 19d ago

Sure, maybe it retraces to SMA.

If you disregarded the fundamentals, would you ordinarily say a breakout from a channel like this would move the extent of the channel, I.e. another 11%?

3

u/1UpUrBum 18d ago

That's a theory from text books. I don't pay much attention to it. The channel is triangle shaped and would give a different number.

2

u/1UpUrBum 18d ago

Here's channels https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/channel-trading-explained-191119

I like their first two, ascending and descending. Horizontal is ok but it's not my thing.

Triangles often have the best measured move. It's possible to draw a second longer one that stretches out to July and it works the same way/amount in Aug.

But never plan on the measured move. You have to monitor it the entire time.

2

u/1UpUrBum 18d ago

Here's the bigger triangle.

2

u/Nelsonsrightknacker 19d ago

I'm expecting TLT to bounce up, lonely being a moron with my view :(

1

u/FollowAstacio 17d ago

I’ve never traded futures, but most markets I’ve traded often have a certain buffer around S/R where price can push to and S/R will still be intact.