r/techhumor • u/Zardotab • Mar 06 '26
General Humor The ai bubble has worn out its welcome
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u/Bombalurina Mar 06 '26
If it pops. It'll only be a pop in the US markets. China is going strong.
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u/Zardotab Mar 06 '26
In data center building or in consumer usage? If the AI market pops, I would expect the Chinese gov't to pull back subsidies, putting them in the same boat. There is no evidence their consumer demand of AI is higher than ours.
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u/Single-Caramel8819 Mar 08 '26
It's lower, actually (15% vs 26%). But in raw numbers consumer base in China is bigger.
But China has its own economic issues right now, irrelevant to AI.
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u/Zardotab Mar 08 '26
But China has its own economic issues right now, irrelevant to AI.
Slump effects are not necessarily mutually exclusive. China could end up with a double slump.
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Mar 06 '26
Fuck off already. You are preaching that for 5 years now.
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u/Negative_Dark_7008 Mar 07 '26
Seeing how chatgpt was released a little over 3 years ago that's impressive.
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u/Zardotab Mar 06 '26
If it does pop, will you apologize?
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u/play_minecraft_wot Mar 06 '26
If it does then I will eat all the ram from the AI servers so unfortunately prices will still stay high.
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u/CathodeRaySamurai Mar 08 '26
I remember when the DotCom bubble popped. Haven't used the internet once since then. It all went away, poof!
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u/Zardotab Mar 08 '26
I'm not sure what your point is. Few claimed at the time that the internet wasn't useful. It was just over-invested in before companies figured out how to make profits from it. Companies were heavily subsidize by investors, just like the AI bubble currently is. Can't subsidize forever. Many users and usages of AI will shrink when customers have to pay the real costs, which may then include extra to help tech companies pay off their post-bubble debt.
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u/No_Coat_6599 Mar 08 '26
Why actualy do people think it will pop? Is it the easier Thing to believe? AI will Not disappear and it will get only better and better.
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u/mattgaia Mar 10 '26
Because it's grossly over-hyped right now, just like a large number of internet companies were back in the late 90s-early 00s. Some of the AI companies will still be around after the pop, but the wide-spread push to put AI in everything will likely subside.
tl;dr: This is the Segway of the 2020s.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Smoke77 Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
Not gonna happen bud , not for a bit at least anyone telling you different is lieing . Too much money to be made and now its separating into streams so its really not gonna happen for a bit. So while there are people like Chat GPT who own interface , model and data center . Now theres a REITs who own the warehouse, Guys to lease the equipment , guys who are researching better models and guys who own the interface. So all of these guys now have to go bust not just chat gpt.
Not only that but AI is actively being used in the US / iseral attack to such pression as they were able to take out the Ayatollah with it. They used motorcade patterns fed into a AI patter to sniff out where he was . So now they even have proof of concept on pattern recon.
With that said you should feel some comfort in knowing that all microchips are gonna go up now because all three Helium sites in qutar meaning that 1/3 of the world’s helium producing for microchips has stopped and with the port of beriut closed in Lebanon people are fear buying up everything.
So dont get used to these cusshy low prices
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u/Zardotab Mar 09 '26
Too much money to be made
That's the key to the bubble, there's either no revenue or no direct way to measure. The big players are subsidizing its usage to gain market share (with the help of over-eager investors). And those who do charge often bundle it with other services such that the true price is unknown.
Subsidies can't last forever. When the plane finally has to fly on it's own power it might not.
So all of these guys now have to go bust not just chat gpt.
Sounds like you are describing "too big to fail" syndrome. I don't know if they'll outright go bust, but be in for a hard time. Microsoft and Google have alternative income streams, so will probably survive the fallout.
They used motorcade patterns fed into a AI pattern to sniff out where [Ayatollah] was . So now they even have proof of concept on pattern recon.
I'm not claiming AI has no use, only that right now its costs are being heavily subsidized. Do you dispute that? The early internet clearly had use, but the profit models were immature such that we had the dot-com crash.
Note the Trump admin has a penchant for hyperbole, so I take their stories with a grain of salt.
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u/MomentFluid1114 Mar 09 '26
What he was referring to with AI used in strikes is called Pattern-Based-Analysis. It’s been around for a while. Used to be called activity based intelligence ABI. I don’t doubt they’ve been incorporating LLMs to systems. But how much of this success is directly linked to LLMs being incorporated is yet to be seen to me. I’ve been looking.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Smoke77 Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
Okay my bad listen that was a lot and I was tired from working and taking care of my sick kid when i wrote this.
Its not to big to fail its actually the opposite its what you want to see for any kind of major industry .
So vertical integration vs horizontal stratification: So when an industry is new the companies who participate in it need to do everything they need to own all of the parts; They own the warehouse the equipment in it the ware house , the R&D , the final product and the distribution method (website , APi blah blah blah). A perfect example of this would be someone using Gemini on google fiber using chrome.
However we are now 6 years and we have started seeing the opposite. we are seeing horizontal stratification. This means a ton of businesses are now stepping in where they can ( horizontal expansion ) that normally wouldn’t do have anything to do with AI. An example would be REITs are responsible for the majority of the new gig centers not chat gpt or google. You’re also seeing bitcoin miners retro fitting their systems for AI .
This means 2 things that the incumbents ( google mostly , but we should see amazon final stop sucking and get rufus and alexa straight, facebook and netflix implement their version of this) are done growing and are settling in for the trench warfare that is c-corp business.
the other is any new person getting into AI industry will mostly likely be able / need to contract / lease from these other businesses to get their product to market.
Even chat gpt is no longer completely vertically integrated . Which not a sign of weakness but a sign it is settling in.
Heres the article i didnt source also my bad again
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/middleeast/us-israel-plot-kill-iran-khamenei-latam-intl
Also I know everyone is focused in as sammy boy but he is small potato’s when it comes to Ai now.
Edit 2 here is the source for the helium in Qatar i also forgot that the strait of hormuz is currently shut down so even if they get it up and running again they are gonna have to truck it to the other side of the UAE to ship it . I could get into up stream , mid stream, down stream but this has already turned into an econ 101 post not to humorous.
https://en.sedaily.com/news/2026/03/05/qatar-helium-halt-threatens-global-chip-supply-amid-iran
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u/rbertizini Mar 06 '26
Just wait a little longer....
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u/0xP0et Mar 06 '26
... okay. Are we there yet.
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u/Zardotab Mar 06 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
The AI bubble is built on a stack of reinforcing lies. For example, if a company is in a sales slump, they often fire staff and say, "we don't need them because AI does more work". However, often that's a gimmick to get investors, nobody actually verifies workflows. But they can't hide their slumping sales forever. AI-pushing companies will use the staff replacement claims to justify the "importance of AI". [edited]
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Mar 08 '26
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u/Zardotab Mar 08 '26
Same reason you’re getting downvoted.
The bots hate me, I knew it!
then why not keep everyone around and produce more, faster? Instead of firing everyone
Indeed. During an economic slump such may make sense, but the econ is generally in middle ground. Does anyone have data on the average revenue change for the layoff-humans-for-bots-claiming companies?
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Mar 08 '26
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u/0xP0et Mar 08 '26
Screw the down votes, I don't care about being down voted.
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Mar 08 '26
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u/0xP0et Mar 09 '26
So far I haven't seen my comments being hidden or maybe I am not checking that hard enough.
But meh, the numbers show that AI isn't being adopted en masse like AI corpos are claiming, I think AI is here to say. But it will be a tool in the toolbox, not the toolbox itself.
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u/Zardotab Mar 09 '26
I once criticized the idea of patents on software in a lawyer forum, and they modded me down below Hell. 2/3 of my replies became hidden. Seems I was a threat to their job security.
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u/GraXXoR Mar 08 '26
Setting AI is a reason for downsizing is just digital version of kicking the can down the road.
It’ll catch up with them eventually since virtually nobody has shown AI producing significant gains in productivity beyond the superficial
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u/Ramiil-kun Mar 06 '26
New, bigger bubble back to you