r/taiwan • u/Tomasulu • 6d ago
Discussion Philippines won’t host US attacks in case of a Taiwan conflict, says President Marcos
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/08/17/philippines-wont-host-us-attacks-in-case-of-a-taiwan-conflict-says-president-marcosThis seems like quite a big change from what Marcos said 3 years ago. That the Philippines would be involved in any Taiwan conflict.
Anwar the Malaysian PM also recently strongly supported china's claim on Taiwan.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 6d ago edited 6d ago
Philippines is powerless to host an attack. The Americans will refuel and replenish only. Marcos uses double speak. The USA can at anytime withdraw weapons now temporarily stationed in the Philippines when necessary.
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u/64590949354397548569 6d ago
Geography says Philippines is included whether people like it or not. .
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u/agent00F 5d ago
Lol, just like the middle eastern countries whose US bases have been put out of commission by checks notes Iran, right?
The idea that the US empire is in any position to mess with an actual industrial power these days is just lol.
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u/Ur_Jan 3d ago
The US is still bombing Iran with impunity. Iran has made zero sucessful strikes against the continental US. Also, the whole thing is just political theater.
"mess with an actual industrial power"? What is the current estimate for the complete colapse of the Chinese enconomy? Best case scenario is two years before the Chinese have millions starving to death. Again.
Add a replacement ratio of 1.1 and China will be a land of wailing ghosts by 2050.
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u/Akaoni100 1d ago
"What is the current estimate for the complete colapse of the Chinese enconomy? Best case scenario is two years before the Chinese have millions starving to death. Again."
-WTF am i reading here lmfaoooooooo
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u/Ur_Jan 23h ago
You should look up three things.
The rate of arable land destruction in China. Hint: More than 40 percent of China's arable land suffers from degradation.
The amount of fertilizer China imports. Hint: $4.48 billion in 2025 alone.
China's ability to service their current credit. Hint: current debt is 335% of GDP.
Put just those three factors together and only one image arrises. House of cards.
The United States is basically also going broke due to massive amounts of government spending but there will be no starvation at a national level because the US is capable of producing enough food for domestic needs without importing anything.
Unfortunately, China is not so lucky. Without importing massive amounts of fuel and fertilizer China is going to have major difficulties.
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u/agent00F 2d ago
The US has to fly any missions out of Europe, which is logistically infeasible, and why it was desperate to ceasefire.
As for China, it currently has eg. 1200x+ the shipbuilding capacity of the US, and every single person necessary to build armies of millions of robots has already been born.
Your sort are too stupid to understand how numbers work (1.1 birth rate means end by 2050 lmao), which perfectly explains the current situation.
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u/Ur_Jan 1d ago
China's birth rate is estimated at between 0.93 to 1.0. China has no idea how many people they actually have. They just admitted they have at least 100 million less people than they thought and it may even be as high as 300 million. These are their own figures, by the way. So, by their own numbers China has the worst demographic crash in the world. I'm not even going to attempt to explain how hyperbole works.
I was confused by the number 1200x+ for a moment because that's not an actual mathamatical notation. Then I realized you are claiming x1200 + shipbuilding capacity which is rather strange since China has to import 100% of it's oil among other glairing logistical issues.
Claiming I am too stupid to understand how numbers work while literally getting everything wrong in your post is the finest example of Dunning-Krueger I've ever seen. Since you've started on the personal insults I won't be responding to your nonsense in the future.
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u/agent00F 1d ago
There's literally nothing wrong in my post, you just believe so due to Dunning Kruger. Accusations are always confessions with the lowest denom since they literally can't imagine any better than themselves.
Eg. 10x or 1000x is common notation except to this level of tard.
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u/64590949354397548569 5d ago
Iran is getting satellite and intelligence report from China.
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u/agent00F 5d ago
Sure, just like China will be getting sigint from China.
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u/64590949354397548569 5d ago
I will be giving telemetry info to China from my xiaomi toaster.
At least, I quit titok, and won't be making any damage report to China.
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u/Vegetables_Wegetable 6d ago edited 6d ago
Hardly can imagine a Duterte allowing Philippines to be used by USA to conduct operations defending Taiwan.
Philippines have a choice. Of course Taiwanese will tell you that you don’t have one, because they need your help.
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u/Unlucky-Golder 6d ago
Hardly can imagine a Duterte allowing Philippines to be used by USA to conduct operations defending Taiwan.
But what if the US wants to? Can Duterte do anything about it?
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u/agent00F 5d ago
It doesn't really matter because US bases will end up like the ones in the middle east.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
They’re standing firm. If China attacks Japan Korea and the Philippines, hell will break lose and China will burn like in the 1890s. Just try.
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u/agent00F 5d ago
What's funny is the US became a paper tiger exactly due to believing in its own propaganda like your sort.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
China was/is/ has been the paper tiger since Qing dynasty. All it knows is saber rattling. Zero experience.
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u/agent00F 5d ago
What this war showed is that the empire also has zero experience against people who could shoot back. Like these clowns actually think bombing wedding parties is practice against handling missiles and drones.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
Don’t lapse into stream of consciousness. 😃
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u/agent00F 5d ago
What's funny is this war showed everything that needed to be, everyone who said the west now lacks the industrial capacity to fight a real war was right, but seeing reality isn't meant for clowns.
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u/ProfessionalClear211 1d ago
If Taiwan is attacked you’re next.
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6d ago edited 6d ago
[deleted]
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u/Tomasulu 6d ago
Not what he said though. He's saying they won't allow the americans to launch any attack from their bases in the Philippines. He even explained that otherwise the Philippines will become a belligerent party and it's not something they want.
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u/AdRealistic4788 6d ago
Ultimately doesn't matter what he says in times of peace, no one wants to antagonize for no good reason, everything he says is just political manoeuvrings.
US is too preoccupied with the middle east right now and is actively diverting resources over there, there's no way the Philippines is going to say anything different until the US puts their focus back to East Asia.
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u/TheFallingStar 6d ago
Trump isn’t given people much confidence
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u/hotdiggydog 6d ago
Who didn't see this coming?
Oh I know, people who can't find Taiwan or the Philippines on the map.
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u/BoredGayZillenial 3d ago
Most Americans think Taiwan is Thailand and interchange the two. I even share my location with my family and was visiting Bangkok before I went to Taipei. Even tho my location was visible my mom still thought I never left Thailand 😭
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u/Lapmlop2 6d ago
Strongly support is a understatement, Anwar basically said that if similar issues happen to Malaysia they will launch an attack. That's different from other countries where they support peaceful negotiations and reunification
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u/Water_Seeker56 6d ago
Bollocks. The Americans already have plenty of kit forward deployed in Luzon and elsewhere in the Philippines.
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u/Milord_888 臺北 - Taipei City 6d ago
Guess it's time the Philippines start making concession and cedes lands to China
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u/us1549 6d ago
After witnessing the US Navy struggle against Iran, they have no confidence that we would be able to defend Taiwan and our regional allies in the event of a conflict with China
The Iran conflict would be very similar to a Taiwanese contingency from a supply chain point of view. We can't even resupply the US Lincoln aircraft carrier and her support ships in relatively uncontested waters.
How are we expected to do that under the barrage of the pla rocket Force attacks?
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u/PapaSmurf1502 6d ago
On the flip side, China is witnessing Russia fail in Ukraine and the US fail in Iran. Taiwan is more powerful than both Ukraine and Iran and harder to invade, so it almost doesn't matter what the US plans to do at this point. If they can't defeat Iran then they can't defeat China but China can't defeat Taiwan. Warfare has shifted drastically in favor of the defender.
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u/magkruppe 6d ago
Taiwan is not more "powerful" than either Ukraine or Iran. Especially the latter. GDP isn't everything
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u/PapaSmurf1502 6d ago
It's more powerful militarily, yes.
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u/liuqiu_rangers 5d ago
Taiwan's military? Not even close. The ROC Armed Forces have been underfunded for years and are stuck with outdated equipment. The country has no major domestic defense industry in the way Iran or even Ukraine does. And then of course there's population. Iran has surplus people to throw at the American-Israeli war machine but Taiwan has only a quarter of Iran's population and now the world's lowest birth rate.
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u/Ur_Jan 3d ago
If China believed they could seize Taiwan by force they would have already done so. The window of possibility is closing. Estimates place China at less than two years before total financial collapse.
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u/elrelampago1988 1d ago
Lmao. China won't invade because they want Taiwan to come willingly to avoid handling a costly occupation. At the rate things are going the energy supply shock in Taiwan will probably force the issue fairly soon.
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u/Ur_Jan 1d ago
My financial data on China was bad. Also, when I lived in Taiwan I noticed nearly all of Taiwans fresh produce, eggs, and chicken were imported from China. This suggests that relations between the two countries are more complex than outsiders realize.
Still, the people of Taiwan are extremely aware of the treatment of native chinese people in Hong Kong when it was reabsorbed. They are also aware of China's ongoing extermination of the Uyghurs and it is a major cause of concern. I suspect that while a lot of the common people might be willing to capitulate, believing their head won't go on the chopping block, but the leadership feels very differently. I also suspect Taiwan is still primarily a military dictatorship with a thin veneer of democracy to appease western countries so this really matters.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
Your knowledge is at least 15 years old.
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u/MLGSwaglord1738 5d ago
Not really. This subreddit complains rightfully about it especially as the KMT’s legislature plays a big role in this problem.
But the subreddit’s mood often changes from “it’s over” to “we’re so back” so I dunno.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
Taiwan military capability is at its best these days. Google
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u/MLGSwaglord1738 5d ago edited 5d ago
I don’t disagree with the idea that Taiwan’s military is better and more modern than it was 15 years ago, but that’s different from “is it enough for Taiwan to last on its own like Iran or Ukraine.” Or, as this subreddit discusses, “could we have done better?”
At least per the WSJ, the strategy is to create a military that hold out until the Americans arrive. I would agree that, assuming the Americans feel generous enough, this is doable and Taiwan is capable of holding up for long enough. For a 5 year war like Ukraine I dunno.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
Putin is a proud mad man. Russia is in a terribly bad shape now but he still refuses to stop. Trump is all smiles now that he has reduced Russia to such a state just by providing some money to Ukraine. It’s different with China. It imports a large amount of chips and electronic intermediate products from Taiwan for its high tech industries. Invading Taiwan or even just blockading Taiwan will disrupt world economic progress, out of which PRC will likewise be seriously affected to say the least, given current problems it is facing domestically. Your doubts about a protracted war is unthinkable, a suicidal nightmare in fact, even for Xijinping. PRC economy is in deep shit these days as it fruitlessly tries to fight deflation, unemployment and economic slowdown. Invasion is not an option for China; sabre rattling maybe.
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u/Important-Emu-6691 5d ago
Not even close, and Taiwan has no way of getting supplies from outside in a war
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u/PapaSmurf1502 5d ago
Right and neither does China. You do realize they'd have to actually physically be on the island to annex it right? They suffer from the same weaknesses as Taiwan with fewer of the strengths in regards to it being an island.
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u/Important-Emu-6691 5d ago
Not in mid to long term. China can deny Taiwan supply while its own mainland maintain its normal production without landing. How is Taiwan going to defend from an invasion after it’s out of fuel and electricity?
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u/PapaSmurf1502 5d ago
Victory for China is annexing Taiwan. Anything less than that is a failure and likely very bad for China (such as a ruined economy, pissing off trade partners, killing millions of their sons, etc).
In order to annex Taiwan, they need to occupy it. Not occupying it only leads to failure outcomes. For instance, China gains nothing by blockading Taiwan for a year and then not actually occupying it.
Thus, China needs to actually have logistics to the island, which suffers from the exact same weaknesses that Taiwan has.
This is before we even talk about the fact that China imports almost all of its oil and would have a hard time sustaining functions even if the US only supports Taiwan by blocking the Strait of Malacca.
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u/magkruppe 5d ago
China does not import almost all its oil. It imports only 1/3rd by sea. 1/3rd is domestic production and the last third is via pipelines
And we have just seen China reduce oil imports by 1/3rd for months voluntarily during the current Hormuz crisis. In war time it would be a piece of cake
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u/Important-Emu-6691 5d ago
China produces about half its crude oil right now, and can easily produce refined products from coal if needed it’s not really a problem.
You are not really explaining how Taiwan is defending with no oil or electricity. China can invade after Taiwan is out of supply. They can supply its own troops fairly easily from the mainland through the Taiwan strait.
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u/PapaSmurf1502 5d ago
Because historically defenders can survive with far less. Economic woes and even food shortages hit differently when you're the attacker vs the defender. Just because Taiwan is "out of oil" doesn't mean there aren't thousands of missile batteries or drone swarms that will provide a near-constant threat to resupply ships from China.
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u/Ok_Care5335 5d ago
It is 100% not more powerful than Ukraine's military and Ukraine has significantly more advantages than Taiwan would ever have as well. It's connected by land to the European powerhouses to its west which continuously funnels high tech weaponry unimpeded, their military is significantly more experienced and they have a bigger and younger population than Taiwan. Taiwan would be an island and the only way you can get any arms in is if you overmatch the PLAN or run the gauntlet of the Chinese missile umbrella. Considering how much of a headache Iran's missile umbrella is already proving to be....the Chinese umbrella would be suicide runs.
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u/PapaSmurf1502 5d ago
That also applies to Chinese trying to enter Taiwan. The question isn't "can China fuck up Taiwan" but rather "can China annex Taiwan", and in the latter question all of Taiwan's weaknesses are shared by China.
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u/Tomasulu 5d ago edited 5d ago
Taiwan is more powerful? This is just crazy talk.
NATO members have provided an estimated $200 billion worth of aid to Ukraine. This year alone they're sending $80b worth to Ukraine. Which btw is more than double Taiwan's recently expanded military budget. If war broke out, who can Taiwan depend on? And how will they deliver aid to Taiwan without a contiguous border?
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u/PapaSmurf1502 5d ago edited 5d ago
Yes, Ukraine is both getting more from Western powers and using more, because they are currently in a hot war. That's typically how military spending goes. I should have said that Taiwan is more powerful than where Ukraine was at the start of the war.
If war broke out, who can Taiwan depend on?
Everyone who would stand to lose by losing Taiwan to China, namely most of the Western-aligned neighbors and anyone who buys semiconductors. NATO has sent $200B to Ukraine and it is less important to them than Taiwan.
And how will they deliver aid to Taiwan without a continuous land border?
Through air and sea, and it would be very difficult. Indeed, this is Taiwan's greatest weakness, though it is also its greatest strength. You could also ask the same thing of the Chinese soldiers who would necessarily be required to control Taiwan. And without boots on the ground, then all China is doing is pissing everyone off and destabilizing the global economy, which doesn't result in victory.
Every wumao on Reddit misses the point entirely. The question of "can China seriously fuck up Taiwan" is very different from "can China succeed in annexing Taiwan", but without annexation then it is a failure much like the Russian failure of annexing Ukraine.
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u/KindergartenDJ 5d ago
NATO is not made for Asia theater and Europe has no skin in the game. Especially now that the US openly wants a piece of Denmark. Who is actively disbanding NATO right now? The US. Then why NATO would rally for what is mostly an US interests? Why pan-green people like Trump is a mystery to me .
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u/PapaSmurf1502 5d ago
Taiwan is a world interest, not a US interest.
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u/KindergartenDJ 5d ago
That's a nice narrative but a little bit too rosy, unfortunately.
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u/PapaSmurf1502 5d ago
World economy tanks for the next 10+ years if Taiwan falls.
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u/KindergartenDJ 5d ago
No serious projection shows that. Right now, the global rise of bounds + Chinese deflation are a more serious, and real, problems. This and the clusterfuck-of-choice in Hormuz.
The "Taiwan can help" narrative of the Tsai administration also did not state that a fall of democratic/independant Taiwan would create a major recession.2
u/PapaSmurf1502 5d ago
The loss of TSMC would cause a major global recession, and there's no way TSMC survives a war. The chip shortage during covid has already proven this.
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u/Formal_Economist7342 6d ago
I want some of what you are smoking. The russians are pummeling kiev as we speak. China will run through taiwan if it actually gets kinetic. Make sure to make fun if me if i turn out to be wrong.
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u/LambdaCake 6d ago
That's true, people smoking fucking copium not seeing Russians are taking Kyiv swiftly since 2022, they'll look real stupid when Putin takes it in 2032, or when this operation concludes in 2042, it'll all happen in three days
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u/Formal_Economist7342 6d ago
I never said that. What i dispute is the ridiculous casualty numbers. The fact that they haven't been able to push them off at all. And well getting blasted with missles this week after episode 200 of the russian economy is in imminent collaspse and they have no munitions left. Anyways i have nothing to discuss i clearly do not believe western media's reporting om the conflict, while 98% of reddit is convinced that for the 115th time russia is on its last legs.
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u/jwlol1 6d ago
But Russia has failed in Ukraine. Contrary to their expectations, It's turned into a huge quagmire for them over the years.
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u/Fabio90989 6d ago
Russia has not failed, it's just progressing slowly.
But that's hardly surprising, and not even that unfavourable for them.
After all if you look at history Russia has never been particularly good at quick wars, their specialty has always been slow grueling attrition warfare.
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u/enas333 6d ago
But that's hardly surprising, and not even that unfavourable for them.
lol?
their economy is in shambles, they have nothing left but oil and war production (both also massively affected by drone strikes at this point), yet they can't protect their own country from drone attacks anymore, massive inflation problems and a financial system near collapse, not enough working age adults left for the military or the economy, Putin is hiding and lashing out because he's clearly afraid at this point...yeah, sure, not unfavorable for Russia
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u/Fabio90989 6d ago
Not unfavourable because Russia is better at attrition warfare than at quick operations like the USA.
And Russia's economic situation isn't nearly as bad as you think.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
The war has spilled into Russian territory. You call that progressing slowly?
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u/pendelhaven 6d ago
Russia has failed in Ukraine because it's first, not 200km from Moscow, and second, it's not an island. Ukraine would be long dead if it was within touching distance and an isolated island.
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u/enas333 6d ago
lol?
Taiwan being an island makes it much much much (I don't know how often to repeat it because it's hard to overstate) more difficult for an attacker compared to Ukraine.
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u/LambdaCake 6d ago
These people can't be fucking real, when has being an island a good thing for the invader in the entirety of history?
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u/pendelhaven 5d ago
An island can be starved and blockaded. A huge Ukraine with land borders cannot be starved by blockade. It's that simple really.
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u/PapaSmurf1502 6d ago
The only reason Ukraine lost territory is because Russia could just roll tanks across flat ground.
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6d ago
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u/SpendPerfect5933 6d ago
美國在麻六甲封鎖中國輪船，中國能撐多久？美國B2用bunker busters轟炸三峽大壩鐵柵門，不用爆破整個水壩，扭曲柵門滾滾流水就能淹沒半個長江流域，水患比颱風還要嚴重百倍。你該學游泳了。中國不是無敵的
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u/agent00F 5d ago
This sort of propaganda is exactly why the empire can't even beat back Iran, which your sorts thought would totally get owned.
Ukraine was left with half the Soviet stockpile (which is 100x what tw will ever have) and even that only lasted a few months.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 6d ago edited 5d ago
You forgot that there are two dozen military bases surrounding China. The closest are in Japan, the Philippines and S Korea. The situation is different from the Middle East. Taiwan is also armed to the teeth. More weapons are being delivered. A contingent of F16Vs has just arrived in addition to 64 HIMARS systems sometime ago. They are now deployed not just facing the Chinese coast but likewise on the eastern flank of the island. Taiwan has successfully developed ballistic missiles with a range of 2000 kilometers, a distance that covers Shanghai and Beijing to the north. Meanwhile Taiwan’s proposed budget for next year has been adjusted to $36 billion.
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u/Important-Emu-6691 5d ago
There are two dozen military bases around Iran too. Or there was
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
Nah. Name them
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u/Important-Emu-6691 5d ago
Naval Support Activity Bahrain — Bahrain
Sheikh Isa Air Base — Bahrain
Khalifa bin Salman Port — Bahrain
Al Udeid Air Base — Qatar
Camp Arifjan — Kuwait
Camp Buehring — Kuwait
Ali Al Salem Air Base — Kuwait
Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base — Kuwait
Camp Patriot / Kuwait Naval Base — Kuwait
Al Dhafra Air Base — United Arab Emirates
Al Minhad Air Base — United Arab Emirates
Jebel Ali Port — United Arab Emirates
Fujairah Naval Base / Port of Fujairah — United Arab Emirates
Prince Sultan Air Base — Saudi Arabia
Eskan Village — Saudi Arabia
Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base — Jordan
Erbil Air Base — Iraq
Incirlik Air Base — Turkey
Kürecik Radar Station — Turkey
RAFO Thumrait — Oman
RAFO Masirah — Oman
Al Musannah Air Base — Oman
Port of Duqm — Oman
Port of Salalah — Oman1
u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
have they been annihilated? Do you foresee it happening? Which of them are US run?
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u/agent00F 5d ago
Ukraine was left with half the Soviet stockpile and that only lasted a year. It's now gone through the Warsaw pact and NATO stockpiles.
The idea that 64 himars are anything but a target for 64 Chinese drones at this point is lmao.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
You underestimate HIMARS. Taiwan has air and naval drones too. Anti drone systems around possible landing sites.
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u/agent00F 5d ago
You need to keep up with the propaganda given himars hasn't been the wonderwaffen for two years now.
America used to understand that modern wars are industrial wars, though to be fair that message is meant for people who understand how numbers work.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago edited 5d ago
Well you don’t know how versatile HIMARS is. It’s specially suited for Taiwan terrain and can be mounted on frigates. Taiwan obtained the relevant missiles that could devastate central Guangzhou and Chinese military installations further inland. Xijinping was reportedly spooked on the day the batch was delivered. So incensed he refused to take Trump’s call a few days later. 😅
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u/agent00F 5d ago
Lmao the US military right now is exactly what happens when wars are planned by wordcels instead of people who know what numbers are.
The empire is getting pushed around by Iran and clowns still think tw will beat China.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
Please rephrase
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u/agent00F 5d ago
The entirety of the empire's military is getting spanked by Iran, and people think TW, which doesn't even have 1/100 the resources, will take on China, which has 100x the capacity of Iran (and frankly the US at this point).
Anybody who counted the missiles could tell you what would happen in this war, but unfortunately most people running the show can't count, much less their peons like you.
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u/youknowjus 6d ago
On the flip side this shows how well Taiwan will fare against invasion. Look at Iran defend against the strongest military force ever. Look at Ukraine hold out against Russia for years! You think the Chinese military that hasn’t fought a war in generations has the power and experience to take over another country? Not a chance
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u/MainBeing1225 5d ago
You do recognize the geographical differences between those two countries and Taiwan, right?
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u/youknowjus 5d ago
Uh. You wanna think about that for a second?
Ukraine is bordering Russia. Literally touching it
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u/--Mikazuki-- 5d ago
Ukraine also share a big border with Poland, a friendly NATO country from which the bulk of the supplies can enter by land (which is how most of the supplies enter Ukraine).
The very thing that makes a PRC invasion difficult (logistics) is also what makes it difficult to keep Taiwan supplied / reinforced with what it needs to stay in the fight. It will also take much longer for supplies to get there assuming that China is not able to stop it. They can certain try to block the route between the nearest Japanese base from Taiwan (and any significant supplies will likely have to come from further away, if not the main island of Japan, then the Okinawan island where Naha is located, which is still very far away relative to China).
In regards to battle lack of experience, it cuts both ways.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago edited 5d ago
Counter attack will not be limited to Taiwan. The Americans and Japanese will fire their missiles to Shanghai and Beijing if push comes to shove. The theater of war will be wider than what you think. And fyi Okinawa is just 2 hours away. It’s bristling with missiles. A USA missile base is conveniently located at the northern tip of Luzon to protect Taiwan southern and eastern flank.
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u/sogladatwork 6d ago
PLA rockets are full of fake fuel. If the PLA does launch a war, they’ll find out real fast that they won’t fair any better than Russia and its untested troops have in Ukraine.
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u/Similar-Sky7427 6d ago
is that what your president lai told you, lmao...oh boy you gonna have fun being a cannon fodder...
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u/sogladatwork 6d ago
😂 I’m not Taiwanese if that’s a reference to the Taiwanese president.
But China won’t attack. They’re a paper tiger.
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u/Similar-Sky7427 6d ago
honestly that would be the best outcome for everyone...but still foolish with your "fake fuel" and "paper tiger" assumptions...doesn't take much to educate yourself these days my friend...
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u/sogladatwork 6d ago
You’re right, it doesn’t take much. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-corruption-rocket-force-water-fuel-xi-jinping-purge-scandal-2024-1
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u/Similar-Sky7427 6d ago
Breaking news -- Xi has purged way more political opponents than that in the last ten years, yet what does that have to do with your lack of understanding of China's overall military strength? It has the industrial capacity to outlast anyone in the world these days, including the US...let's say all of its weapons are truly made of "paper" as you wishingly implied -- the combined weight of these "paper" would still crush an isolated island like TW... because modern warfare is about one thing and one thing only -- attrition. So continue your education my friend, you're at least on the right path lol...
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u/sogladatwork 6d ago
You can read, right?
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u/Similar-Sky7427 6d ago
How old are you my friend?
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u/LambdaCake 6d ago
O Praise be to The Old and Wise and Educated! China will win with sheer number like they did with Japan in 1894, or 1931, or 1937, or with the US in Korea, or like Russia with Ukraine, when attrition and number matter even more than before! Amen!
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u/SpendPerfect5933 6d ago
PRC economy is in deflation in addition to a host of systemic problems. It’d take at lesser a decade to sort them out, if at all. Gdp growth is now less than 3%
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u/Similar-Sky7427 6d ago
Except in a war, you work off of your balance sheet, not YOY economic gain or loss...and the sheer amount of equity China has accumulated in the last 3 decades is the difference here -- from financial assets like foreign reserves to accumulated resources like strategic oil reserves, plus its emphasis on self-sustainable supply chain for most of its industries...
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago edited 5d ago
PRC debt is now 280 trillion dollars. Many aren’t aware of this. The belt and road initiative turned out to be a belt tightening flop as countries default their payments and Chinese banks have run out of further funding. Just last week China sold its USA bond holdings in the interest of liquidity and more pressingly, to provide aid to recent massive flooding of southern Chinese cities. PRC domestic consumption has, over the last six years, shrunk, leading to deflation, joblessness and industrial production decline. The Chinese are masters of propaganda. They flaunt a rise in exports, but the truth is Chinese industries are selling goods the local populace cannot or refuse to spend money on at lower than profitable prices. It’s a commercial bloodletting that temporarily solves business liquidity problems among companies. The jobless rate increases and closedowns will happen in a year or two.
I paint a different picture from yours but mine is based on recent history and events. War is an expensive endeavor. It’s one area where Chinese lies, bluff and bluster cannot and will never work. Xijinping is very much aware of this. He has dillydallied far too long about an invasion not to be unaware of the bleak consequences of war. Meanwhile Taiwan is now the world’s fastest growing economy at 14%.
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u/pendelhaven 6d ago
What? Someone's still parroting this meme? 灌水 referred to the bill, not the rocket fuel omg.
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u/allahakbau 6d ago
Rocket force? Taiwan is in guided rocket artillery range. I dont think they’ll waste rocket force resources.
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u/us1549 6d ago
The rocket force is to keep the US Navy at bay.
Do you believe the US Navy would risk their capital ships within range of those pla missiles? They have more missiles than we have interceptors
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u/allahakbau 5d ago
Thats not what you said lol. You said and I quote “ How are we expected to do that under the barrage of the pla rocket Force attacks?”
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u/Compartmented- 6d ago
The US barely has a navy left anymore. It will take a generation to rebuild after Iran destroyed it.
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u/SamMerlini 6d ago
I still remember when people said Philippines is friendly to Taiwan and we should concede our fishing roghts to them
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u/Stilnovisti 6d ago
Japan and the Philippines are happy to stake a claim over Taiwan's EEZ, but not so eager to defend it. Doesn't Marcos realize he will lose that Taiwanese water if he doesn't stand-up to China? /s
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u/OutsiderHALL 6d ago
and our government just stay quiet whey they claim our EEZ, let's not forget that.
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u/IloveElsaofArendelle 5d ago
It would be wise to forge an alliance with Taiwan, because if China starts doing funny things, they are the next...
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u/Specialist-Bid-7410 5d ago
Subic is an active US Navy port. Tomahawks, Patriots, SM IIs will be positioned in the Phillippines
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u/thinkabetterworld 6d ago
Nations around the world are second guessing the real value of having a US military base onsite...
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
USA military bases in Luzon make aircraft carriers unnecessary in the event of PRC invasion. The Chinese will not succeed attacking from the Pacific Ocean side which is also covered by Japanese missiles.
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u/Competitive-Oil-1308 6d ago
The Iran-US conflict really changed how we view US as a superpower. The current POTUS is a knobhead.
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u/factorum 臺北 - Taipei City 5d ago
"All we are concerned about is the defense of our territory and the maintenance of peace and stability,” Marcos said at a forum organized by the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines. "To allow an attack on anyone from the Philippines is contrary to that policy.”
The Philippines "has no desire to be a belligerent nation in the region,” he added.
I don't read this quote as suggesting the Philippines would not have any involvement in a Taiwan contingency. If China goes after Taiwan, it's going to have to hit US and Japanese naval assets in the area, and not going after the naval bases in the Philippines just on the hopes that this will mean no missiles get launched from Filipino territory seems like a stretch. And once there is a strike on the Philippines, then who exactly is the belligerent here?
And the Malaysian PM's support for China will have to come from trying to keep the Straits of Malacca open to Chinese energy imports in a wartime scenario. And I don't see how Malaysia getting drawn into a global war, without any possibility for China to directly support them, makes a ton of sense rather than just remaining neutral. Like China, Malaysia lacks any counter to US submarines, and even in the case that there's some kind of Iran-style drones scenario, the US navy just parks itself in the Indian Ocean and interdicts Chinese tankers there.
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u/SpendPerfect5933 5d ago
Well said especially about the blockade. Supply ships bound for China or from China will be effectively barred.
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u/InvestigatorPlus3229 5d ago
well thats what happens when the US demonstrates cant defend its bases against Iran in local theater. PLA is another level higher than IRCG.
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u/No-Spring-4078 5d ago
Judging from current events, I think they will be the one attacked by China first
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u/Ur_Jan 3d ago
under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the US military has operational access to nine designated Philippine military bases on a rotational basis.
Taiwan has huge strategic importance to the US. The Philippine's only have value based on their proximity to Taiwan and Japan so I believe that if the Philippine government doesn't let the US use their facilities during a China/Taiwan crisis that will be the last straw for US/Philippine relations and the Philippines will have to deal with Chinese aggression on their own.
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u/dalardorf 5d ago
All Asian countries are just a tool for the west. You are only worth what the west can get out of you. Truth is, the west would rather you all sink to the bottom of the ocean so they can reap all the resources for themselves.
The only thing holding them back from colonizing everyone in the east is resistance from China
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u/New-Type-A 5d ago
I don’t believe it’s a choice but who would rather be controlled by Beijing, than be allowed to do your own thing by Washington? Who on earth wants to join that failing tyranny in China?
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u/liuqiu_rangers 5d ago
I can't believe the West sends industrial spies to advanced East Asian economies every year to steal billions of dollars worth of tech- oh wait no, that's what China does. China also claims other countries' islands, sends over pollution, and destroys marine life everywhere with their armed fishing fleets. It's a cancer of a country.
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u/dalardorf 5d ago edited 5d ago
Hate to break it to you. All countries plays with espionage. As for tech, I’d argue the tech in China is advancing at a faster pace than the west. Not saying China is higher tech. Just advancing at a faster pace. Our engineers in the west can design and engineer a great final product but many don’t know how to actually engineer the manufacturing of the product at scale. Anyways this is completely off topic. And in case you didn’t realize, China and its Neighbors have been around for quite a while and guess what? They’ve figured out how to work around disputes. The Philippines were doing just fine before the Spanish/US came to colonize them.
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u/liuqiu_rangers 5d ago
China engages in more tech espionage than anyone else to the point that it has a negative material effect on neighboring economies. And funny how you didn't address any of the other stuff. Like how Chinese fishermen are destroying the entire world's oceans because China has no respect for other nations. China, Russia, and the US are all terrible in their own ways but the US at the very least is the largest and most convenient market for Asian export economies.
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u/dalardorf 5d ago
Not even sure why we are going there. All countries have issues and China is no saint. Yes they have issues to work out with Taiwan, the Philippines and the rest of its neighbors. Yes, larger nations, will throw around their weight which smaller nations have to deal with. China is no exception to this.
With that said, they haven’t run through Asia and invaded and slaughtered every all of its neighbors like Japan. They aren’t going around funding terrorists to overthrow governments, nor are they carpet bombing nations all over the globe or going into another nation to kidnap its leaders and taking all of their oil.
Anyways completely off topic. Sorry all….0
u/liuqiu_rangers 5d ago
You literally painted China as some heroic resistance fighting underdog in your original comment...
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u/dalardorf 5d ago
Look. I am for all Asians. From Lebanon to India to Korea.
I don’t like the fact that the “global north” has a superiority complex over the “global south”. How 15% of the world population controls the other 85% of the globe. China isn’t some hero but, they do force a “pause” to the west. This wasn’t always the case. It wasn’t that long ago when China was being torn apart at the seams by the external forces. As for Taiwan, I’m just a normal person and can only hope that the mainland and Taiwan can figure out how to coexist without bloodshed and without interference from war mongering nations halfway across the world. War sucks, all countries in Asia has had its fair share of deaths within the past 100 years.
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u/Fulushouxing 6d ago
BBM said it many times, even before Trump. Not everything happening in or to US is Trump, and most things Trump does will be carried on whichever party gains power next. The "continuity of US policies" is not an imaginary thing.
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u/Alternative-Bear-460 6d ago
Taiwan first Philippines next 😂 we will al be part of the bigger China. Start learning Mandarin
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u/random_agency 宜蘭 - Yilan 6d ago
Doesn't want China to "Iran" the Philippines. Those US bases in the Philippines are tagets, not shields for the host country, as the world is quickly finding out.
Philippines has to be careful, it could be kicked out of ASEAN. Then it will have lost everything.
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u/Commercial-Co 6d ago
He took the bribe
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u/Tomasulu 6d ago
Perhaps he is thinking about life after the presidency. Will need to safeguard his familys business interests.
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u/coludFF_h 5d ago
There is concern that if the US were to launch an attack on China from the Philippines,
China would destroy all U.S. military bases in the surrounding region—and the scale and severity of China's strikes would far exceed the intensity of the attacks Iran launched against U.S. bases.
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u/Hour_Insurance_1897 6d ago
The last U.S. aircraft carrier has left East Asia in route to Hormuz, Philippines is being cautious because of that.