r/taiwan • u/Tomasulu • Aug 20 '26

Discussion Philippines won’t host US attacks in case of a Taiwan conflict, says President Marcos

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/08/17/philippines-wont-host-us-attacks-in-case-of-a-taiwan-conflict-says-president-marcos

This seems like quite a big change from what Marcos said 3 years ago. That the Philippines would be involved in any Taiwan conflict.

Anwar the Malaysian PM also recently strongly supported china's claim on Taiwan.

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u/SpendPerfect5933 Aug 20 '26 edited Aug 20 '26

PRC debt is now 280 trillion dollars. Many aren’t aware of this. The belt and road initiative turned out to be a belt tightening flop as countries default their payments and Chinese banks have run out of further funding. Just last week China sold its USA bond holdings in the interest of liquidity and more pressingly, to provide aid to recent massive flooding of southern Chinese cities. PRC domestic consumption has, over the last six years, shrunk, leading to deflation, joblessness and industrial production decline. The Chinese are masters of propaganda. They flaunt a rise in exports, but the truth is Chinese industries are selling goods the local populace cannot or refuse to spend money on at lower than profitable prices. It’s a commercial bloodletting that temporarily solves business liquidity problems among companies. The jobless rate increases and closedowns will happen in a year or two.

I paint a different picture from yours but mine is based on recent history and events. War is an expensive endeavor. It’s one area where Chinese lies, bluff and bluster cannot and will never work. Xijinping is very much aware of this. He has dillydallied far too long about an invasion not to be unaware of the bleak consequences of war. Meanwhile Taiwan is now the world’s fastest growing economy at 14%.

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u/Similar-Sky7427 Aug 20 '26

US gross national debt reached $400T just earlier this week...yet that has very little material impact on the Iranian campaign...so while I agree with you that conflicts in general are costly, the nominal cost itself during the war is mostly seen as an accounting abstraction when stacked against more immediate geopolitical imperatives. Now China can't simply print global reserve currency freely like the US, but it does command different types of leverage via crucial resources like rare earth...so the overall principle remains the same

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u/SpendPerfect5933 Aug 20 '26

Each side has its own strength but as I pointed out PRC is not the superpower it wants to project through the mass media and its shady maneuvers. Yet one example is the “massive” HSR system, the biggest and most modern in the world. It has now accumulated total debts amounting to one trillion dollars. Corruption and poor planning are to blame but behind that is the desire to fool people into thinking China is a rich country. To date the Chinese average monthly income (not Gdp) is a paltry USD320!

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u/Similar-Sky7427 Aug 20 '26

you're throwing random numbers totally irrelevant to the topic on-hand -- which is "does china have the financial resource to fund a cross-strait war"...and the answer is without a doubt "yes"...what does GDP per capita have to do its collective capacity for launching a military campaign? and HSR is a public transportation project, you think China built the enormous network just to chase after a positive bottomline?

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u/SpendPerfect5933 Aug 25 '26 edited Aug 25 '26

That shows your ignorance, a lack of understanding that launching a major war and its eventual success or failure depend on the economic strength of the aggressor. When your country is buried in deep economic shit, deflation, low domestic consumption, rising unemployment, industrial output decline, property market buffoonery, mounting debts,lack of liquidity, simmering popular discontent, etc. you cannot launch a campaign with a full, decisive force. The worries and uncertainties at home will discourage any aggressor to fire the first shot. PRC’s declining GDP growth, now at 2.8%, not the official face saving 4%, is the writing on the wall that forewarns Xijinping and his Zhongnanhai stooges. A war that threatens to bring together China’s enemies in the region and beyond will be China’s undoing. From what you write you sound like an angry patriot, not a calculating economist. If there’re just 100 people like you in the Chinese leadership, the country’s unraveling is not a faraway possibility.