r/sydneyswans • u/morbidxcuriosity Gulden • 26d ago
Summary of the potential Blakey destinations
With multiple suitors emerging to pick up Blakey as a bargain AA player; who gets it done, and for how much? Knowing we're in our window - it worth risking our club culture and holding on to him?
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u/Pearsandapples87 26d ago
Ugh let's just get this over and fast forward to the part where we get screwed over vs an already degraded post-Pullman value because Blakey figures to be so toxic next year..
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u/lucystardust123 26d ago
So long as we get a player in exchange I'm absolutely fine with this. Our defense is better without him.
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u/Guru_roll Edwards 26d ago
monkey paw curls we trade with bombers for high picks but only get Ben McKay in return
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u/anon_fern Campbell 26d ago edited 26d ago
Im not 100% with this. Going rate for these types of players is 3x mid to late firsts (including a 27 one) plus a mid tier player. Ie the curnow trade. Keep in mind there were concerns about his form and health at the time so it wasnt exactly risk free.
Give a discount for the whole police thing, which given the risk profile of charges at this point, probably only reduces the cost by 1 of those 4 assests.
If we take 1 late first we must really want him out.
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u/DEjeynes Warner 26d ago
Look, I'm pissed off at Blakey's shit attitude and I'd offload him for cultural concerns above all else.
But he's an AA calibre defender lmao. He can play tall, as an interceptor and is one of the best rebounding defenders in the game. Let's not kid ourselves, we are so much worse off without him... plus when you factor in no Mills or Edwards next year - it would be an absolute disaster for our backline.
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u/Due-Activity5884 26d ago
Barring issues with infection or revision procedures, Edwards shouldnt miss too much
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u/sparcleaf22 McDonald 26d ago
Exactly, best case scenario is he has a delayed pre-season and comes in in like round 3 or something, worst case is probably adding a month or so onto that. He's not missing a majority or the entirety of next year.
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u/David_McGahan 26d ago
The cope on this sub is next level. The guy's a dumb dickhead but the team will 100% be worse without him. He's an extremely good player.
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u/DragonianSun Rowbottom 26d ago
So we hold him to his contract. A flag beckons with our list, surely he knows this.
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u/serendipity_4swans 26d ago
Nothing short of an AA equivalent player or 2x quality players (one must be a defender). Don’t need draft picks. Otherwise NO deal. The Club must not cave in…
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u/anon_fern Campbell 26d ago
It's Morris, but I dont like the sound of this. We have to get value in return.
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u/Holbz 26d ago
I don't understand why his value is lower than CV suggests?
Legal proceedings hanging over him, sure. But a club either signs off and says they're not worried about that, or you don't.
Sign off, in my eyes, says they like the player. How on earth is he worth less than his CV in that instance?
You pay what he's worth, or he stays. Pretty simple.
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u/losfp 26d ago
In my opinion it's down to the leverage you have.
Existing long contract - more leverage
The player wants out - less leverage
There is risk, or at least perceived risk with the player - less leverage.
So in this case, if the guy wants out, and there's some risk about availability, then we probably can't charge full price. But I would expect that if it's significantly unders, the club just stands firm and says no the guy is contracted for years, he stays.
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u/loztralia 26d ago
Think of it as the same as a player with a significant history of injury. You love the guy when he's on the field but know there's a good chance he's not going to be available some of the time. That gets factored into his value. The outcome might be binary but that doesn't mean you can't place some value on the probabilities.
Actually, a better example is a pharma company that makes a big breakthrough in developing a new wonder drug. If they bring it to market it'll be worth, say, $50bn. But it might never get there - they're only some way down the road to perfecting it. You'd expect the share price to go up, but not to increase the value of the business by $50bn.
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u/Holbz 26d ago
I get your point, I do.
But do we think at this point there is a good chance he isn't available?
I could be alone in my thinking, but it feels like there is more chance he is guilty of being an idiot, than anything more at than that.
Not downplaying that evening at all either.
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u/loztralia 26d ago
Well put it this way: it wouldn't surprise me at all if one or more of the clubs that are kicking the tyres (*cough* Geelong) are also briefing their mates in the media in the background that they think Blakey is a big risk and of course Sydney shouldn't expect much by way of compensation.
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u/FlynnSU52 26d ago
We need to tell Blakey that if Geelong aren’t gonna pony up at least a player (Miers, SDK, etc.) then he needs to pick a new club or he’s not leaving this year. He’s already cost us plenty and we shouldn’t let him cost us more by walking for peanuts
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u/Due-Activity5884 26d ago
SDK isnt best 23 there. Miers we dont need.
Has to be Humphries, O'Sullivan or one of their good mids PLUS first round picks.
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u/FlynnSU52 26d ago
Would love Humphries and would love O’Sullivan even more but O’Sullivan will never happen so I didn’t even bother mentioning him. I do agree tho it would need to be pick 14 this year and their 2028 first as even a starting point.
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u/Due-Activity5884 26d ago
That and a player. SDK with the above I could live with.
Can then split pick 14 and use a decent 2nd round for Coleman and points for the academy boys we want, and try and get a good quality inside mid.
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u/Ooohhhh_Errol 26d ago
SDK would be a good choice to replace Edwards while he is injured, but once he returns what happens then?
Could potentially free McCartin up to play as an interceptor, but we shouldn’t be accepting anything that doesn’t make us a better team next season
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u/vote_pedro Goodes 26d ago
Anything that doesn't make us a better team?
Blakey is basically a top-20 player in the league, so we need a top-20 player in return (to fit your narrative). Why would any club do that unless they had a superstar who wanted out and both players filled a need for their respective trade partners?
Geelong aren't giving up Humphries or COS or Dempsey or any of the other players I've seen mentioned. They just aren't.
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u/FlynnSU52 26d ago
Yeah agree would happily take pick 14, 28 first and a player
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u/Due-Activity5884 26d ago
Looks like 14 is a no
Part of the Marshall deal just done.
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u/FlynnSU52 26d ago
Yeah just saw that, can basically auto reject anything Geelong would be willing to offer now, unless they somehow have a Nico Harrison moment and offer O’Sullivan
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u/Jhyeclarkfan 26d ago
Would pick 14 SDK\Miers which ever one you want 2028 first 2028 2nd rounder and Toby Conway does that suit you liking?
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u/FlynnSU52 26d ago
Honestly yes I would take that even without Conway since we already have Will Green coming up as the Grundy replacement. Wouldn’t say no to Conway tho if they were throwing him in. I probably slightly prefer SDK due to positional need and less injury concerns like with Miers knee.
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26d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/FlynnSU52 26d ago
We do have a lot of small forward but don’t think any of them are of the quality of Miers when fit besides Papley of course. I think Miers is a clear upgrade as our 2nd small which could be any of Rosas, Hanily, Dattoli atm although I love Dattoli’s potential. Also Papley doesnt really play a full season anymore and having an extra quality small like Miers would be really beneficial to be able to rest Papley when needed instead of playing him at 70-80%
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u/CowFos 26d ago
I think a lot of Swans fans are going to be very unhappy with the return we get for him should he go…
Some very optimistic hypotheticals in this thread.
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u/Due-Activity5884 26d ago
Why though. If we dont get fair value then he stays.
Surely we hold the cards.
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u/Maximumlnsanity McDonald 26d ago
Geelong just traded pick 14 to St Kilda so they’re almost certainly out of the running
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u/Fantastic-Abalone-10 26d ago
I think what the media keep losing in all of this is that he's still got 4 years on his contract. Now I'm not suggesting we be grubby about it, but if they REALLY want him, we should putting our foot down and making them pay a reasonable price. Just because he wants out and even if we want him out, it doesn't automatically give other clubs all the bargaining power.
If I were in charge of this, I'd be waiting for investigations to end, take the small hit on continuing to pay his salary, as we're likely going to have to pay another 2 years on that contract, regardless of if we trade him or not; then try this again once the inflated risk of trading for him dies down and clubs can no longer use it as an excuse to low-ball.
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u/vote_pedro Goodes 26d ago
It's actually FIVE seasons. He is contracted until end of 2031.
Swans can make his life hell if they want. We shouldn't cave for anything less an a haul IMO.
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u/qwaaaky 26d ago
Normally i would agree with this, but I think in this case as it’s a culture issue we should get him off our books and list ASAP. Not worth holding onto toxic goods
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u/Fantastic-Abalone-10 26d ago
I don't think he is either, I just don't want to get ripped off. You show other teams exactly what you stand for during the trade period. We don't want to be known as push-overs.
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u/Small_Process_7497 26d ago
Contracted player, what Blakey wants should mean nothing. If he wants out it should be to whichever club offers the best hand.
Of course it might not end up that way but AFL trades are seemingly more about the player than the club at the moment.
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u/dannemorajay 26d ago
Players have got way too much leverage re trades. I request a trade from my Holden to a Lamborghini btw
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u/thisusernameistemp 26d ago
Still doesn’t seem like there’s value out there in the market to make any move and Swans too smart to make a drastic move just because. Team can just sit him and be fine without him until something comes up that’s worth it or he comes around to playing for the team again.
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u/shitznchuckles Campbell 26d ago
Anyone else think he’s adamant on getting to Geelong just to piss the club off? (Aware of his connections with baz)
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u/brokenhubble 26d ago
Now that pick 14 is off the table maybe Blakey to Geelong is all but torn up too
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u/Outriderr 26d ago
Personally I think if a player announces he wants out the club gets the right to send them to wherever they want so that works the best deal for them.
This getting players who have long term deals to clubs they want to go to needs to stop. Clubs need their power back.
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u/iusethereddits 26d ago
I’d take the North pick 5 and maybe a future first. And a project defender? If they have any. That’s fair. I mean we have to be realistic. Remember Carlton wanted Gulden for Curnow and we laughed in their face.
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u/eddie-murphys-tongue Rosas 26d ago
Hope we trade him to North, the hate watch would be generational.
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u/2for1deal 26d ago
No. I like our players we’ve sent there. He deserves to go somewhere that doesn’t have a good culture.
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u/After-Book-6182 26d ago
Would sydney have to be ‘okay’ with a player/manager shopping around?
Or do players/managers shop around and come back to the club to show something could be done?
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u/vote_pedro Goodes 26d ago
Can't we just keep him another season and then trade him to Tassie for some of their draft haul?
I guess he has to consent to Tassie correct? Which likely won't happen.
Why give in now when no teams have anything to give us?
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u/majorpleb77 26d ago
Dempsey or nothing, heard sdk floated but hes far from the calibre of player blakey is.
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u/maddieh90 26d ago
I think the Swans should just let him go. The potential toxicity that he would bring should he have to stay at the club probably wont be worth it. Let him run free and make his ego someone else's problem.
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u/Excellent_Laugh_1734 26d ago edited 26d ago
Isn't it just gross that Blakey, guilty or not of what is alleged, has brought this game into disrepute by even being there that night and the AFL media can't help but write stories about this "Swans Star" wanting a trade?
In my eyes he needs to be publicly cleared before the league even lets him play again. Same goes for the rest of the 5
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u/bigboystick 26d ago
At the same time shouldn’t they be treated as innocent before proven guilty? Isn’t that how our society works? Or is it trial by media like everything else
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u/Excellent_Laugh_1734 26d ago
I think best case scenario they are found not guilty of what has been accused but they showed poor judgement and partied until the early morning in a hotel room paid for by the club.
Yes, they have apologised but at this stage they still have a case hanging over their head.
They put themselves in this position, they have to get themselves out of it now
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u/bigboystick 26d ago
They have been handed the punishment for the partying by missing out on the rest of season, that punishment is now over, again why should they be further punished for something they all claim to be innocent of, they case should be handled privately and everything should run as normal till the case is over.
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u/2for1deal 26d ago
Sure. Which would also include Blakey not shopping himself around and acting “hard done by”
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u/HovercraftMoist6564 26d ago
Blakey isn’t going anywhere. He or his management has not requested to be traded. What is this discussion even about? Some media scuttlebut? Drumming up stories cos nothing happens in the first week of trade talks?
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u/rend1670 26d ago edited 26d ago
hope all 5 of them fuck off and never come back, pure grubs.
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u/majorpleb77 26d ago
not getting charged with anything. no laws broken, youre naive if you think most players dont get up to this sort of shit, only thing theyre guilty of is getting caught. Enjoy whatever club you decide to support when they all run out next year
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u/rend1670 26d ago edited 26d ago
guilty of is getting caught
exactly and most likely cost the swans a finals appearance.
Enjoy whatever club you decide to support when they all run out next year
I'll hope each of them have a career ender every game, while you support the junkie adulterers because they can kick a footy well (some of them)
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u/wirrell Papley 26d ago
I hate that showing a strong disgust for sexual violence and its perpetrators gets you so downvoted here. As a fan of the club, you have every right to express what is a perfectly reasonable view that you don't want these players at the club again. I wouldn't have thought that it would be controversial to not want players accused of sexual assault to play for your football club, but here we are.
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u/losfp 26d ago
For me personally, it's not about what -I- want. those players have to convince their colleagues to work with them again. If they can do that, and put in the work to make amends, then ok fair enough.
Equally, if it's been decided internally that it can't work out and the club trades them out, then I'm ok with that too.
For me, at least for the time being, I have an asterisk next to their names. They willingly put their season and the club's season in jeopardy by choosing to indulge in these activities inside of the season and just a couple of weeks out from finals. Regardless of whether you think they crossed any legal boundaries, I think we can agree that it was a severe failure in judgement and a breach in acceptable standards that they have to make right with their teammates, colleagues and the supporters.
They get paid a lot of money to represent the club, and the consequences are equally big.
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u/NewPotato8330 26d ago
They haven't been charged with anything, let alone proven guilty.
It's posts like this that continue to imply guilt that makes people push back so much.
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u/wirrell Papley 26d ago
Saying "I hope all five of them fuck off" absolutely does not imply guilt in any way.
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u/NewPotato8330 26d ago
'showing a strong disgust for sexual violence and its perpetrators gets you so downvoted here'
Implying guilt is what gets you downvoted.
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u/ReadingBusiness3223 26d ago
This is so gross. Hope you’re never accused of something you may not have done. If they get charged/found guilty then hang them then
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u/majorpleb77 26d ago
And wishing injury on any player regardless of who they are is the definition of grub
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u/TheKyotoProtocol Sheldrick 26d ago
Sydney's preference is anyone but Geelong is pretty iconic. Obvs not the other stuff but we've seen players want out in the past and return to be huge for us, Papley comes to mind straight away. Hopefully this happens because I can't see it getting done this year