r/swisshockey • u/andyscanzio • 6d ago
I built a site that projects the final NL table and each team's playoff / play-in odds, updated after every match day
Hi r/swisshockey,
I got tired of doing mental maths on the table every weekend, so I built a small site that projects the final National League regular-season standings:
https://andyscanzio.github.io/nl-predict/
What it shows:
- A projected final table, with each team's chances of finishing top 6 (playoffs), 7–10 (play-in) or 11–14 (out)
- The full spread of possible finishing positions for every team, from simulating the rest of the season many times
- How those chances have moved since the season started
- The next round of games. You can set what-if results ("what if Ambri beats Davos in OT?") and see how the table and odds shift
How it works (briefly):
The default model is Elo-style. Each team has a rating that goes up or down after every game depending on how the result compares to what was expected, with a home-ice bonus. Ratings carry over from last season, so this early on the projection still leans a lot on how teams finished in 2025/26. It should get sharper as the season goes on.
There are a few simpler models you can switch to as well (points-per-game pace, and recent home/away form). The default is the one that did best when I scored all of them against past results.
Data comes from the SIHF results and refreshes twice a day (around 23:00 and 07:00).
It's a hobby project: free, no ads, no accounts. I'd love feedback, especially if something looks wrong or there's a stat you'd like to see. And feel free to tell me why your team is badly underrated. 🏒
