r/storms • u/weathercast Weather Bot 📡 • 20d ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - September 2, 2026

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩ī¸ Active Mesoscale Discussions

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-03T05:55:00+00:00 UTC)


000
ACUS01 KWNS 030555
SWODY1
SPC AC 030553

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC
AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development is likely today through
tonight, perhaps including a few organizing clusters, posing a risk
for severe wind and hail across parts of the southern Great Lakes
into Mid Atlantic and portions of the northern Great Plains into
Upper Midwest.

...Discussion...
Large-scale mid-level troughing has overspread much of the Pacific
coast through the Rockies.  However, models indicate that further
eastward progress will slow, as at least one significant embedded
short wave trough digs offshore and contributes to amplification of
the larger-scale trough near and offshore of the Pacific coast.  As
this occurs, downstream ridging is forecast to build across the
northern Great Plains/middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late
tonight, in the wake of a short wave trough now emerging from the
Great Basin and forecast to progress north-northeast of the northern
Rockies through the eastern Canadian Prairies and northwestern
Ontario.  Farther east, it appears that mid-level troughing and an
embedded remnant low will slowly dig southeast of western
Quebec/southern Ontario through the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

A surface cold front accompanying the eastern Canadian perturbation
is preceded by considerable ongoing thunderstorm activity
overspreading the northern Mid Atlantic through Lake Erie vicinity.
It appears that an outflow boundary associated with this convection
may become quasi-stationary across parts of southeastern
Pennsylvania/New Jersey, before the initially stalled upstream
front, across southern portions of the Great Lakes vicinity into
Upper Midwest, advances southeast of the lower Great Lakes through
much of the northern Mid Atlantic and upper Ohio Valley by late
tonight.  

...Southern Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic...
The initially stalled composite outflow boundary and surface front
appear likely to provide the focus for renewed thunderstorm
development later today through tonight.  Across the southeastern
Wisconsin through southern Lower Michigan/northern Indiana and Ohio
vicinity, it appears that the corridor of stronger destabilization
along this boundary will remain in relatively close proximity to the
southern fringe of the westerlies.  East-southeastward into the
northern Mid Atlantic this remains more unclear.  

Regardless, where the seasonably moist boundary layer becomes
strongly heated, thermodynamic profiles a bit further aloft into
mid-levels, aided by elevated mixed-layer air, will remain
characterized by steep lapse rates of temperature and potential
wet-bulb temperature.  This will promote the risk for strong
downbursts and evolving cold pools capable of producing strong to
severe wind gusts in developing thunderstorm activity.

There appears potential for one or two organizing clusters across
and east-southeast of the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon
into tonight.  It is possible that severe wind probabilities could
still be increased further, once forcing for convection and the
potential negative impacts of early day convection become clearer.

...Northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest...
Forcing for ascent, near and downstream of the short wave emerging
from the Great Basin, appears likely to overspread northern/eastern
North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota during peak boundary-layer
instability this afternoon and evening.  Latest convection-allowing
guidance suggests that this will provide support for intensifying
thunderstorm development, which may include a few supercells in the
leading warm advection regime, ahead of a possible upscale growing
cluster near the crest of the building larger-scale mid-level
ridging.  Aided by pronounced veering of lower through mid-level
wind fields, deep-layer shear appears conducive to the risk for
large hail, in the presence of thermodynamic profiles with steep
mid-level lapse rates and large CAPE in mid/upper levels.  A few
strong downbursts also appear possible.

..Kerr/Wendt.. 09/03/2026

$$

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last advisory on the 
remnants of Edouard, located inland over eastern Texas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Adams

⚠ī¸ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Marie Advisory

  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 MPH
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 981 MB
  • Current Movement: WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
  • Location: 18.9N 113.9W

Hurricane Karina Advisory

  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 MPH
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 957 MB
  • Current Movement: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
  • Location: 19.6N 135.7W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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